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Rarely do I say Vegas knows more than I do but they must know something w/ Kings vs.Wizards. WRITEUP

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyNBA:

Agreed Scal. I'm a HUGE trend guy, but your absolutely correct....they have to be relevant. I always check out StatFox trends, and found the 2 below (only 1 applies to this game). While they're a bit obscure, good percentages here....

StatFox Super Situations 

NBA | TORONTO at ATLANTA 
Play On - Road favorites (TORONTO) average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games 156-90 over the last 5 seasons.  ( 63.4% | 57.0 units ) 21-7 this year.  ( 75.0% | 13.3 units ) 

WASHINGTON at SACRAMENTO 
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (SACRAMENTO) poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=46% on the season, averaging 53 or more rebounds/game on the season 191-87 over the last 5 seasons.  ( 68.7% | 67.6 units ) 88-56 this year.  ( 61.1% | 18.0 units ) 

GL Whichever way everyone goes. 

And 'poor defensive team' is an understatement when it comes to the kings...
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by rr207:

Scalabrine, hope you choose the wizards. Bet now, think about it later.

Haven't made a pick yet but I understand where you are coming from
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by trustandfall:

Saw the line on this had moved to -2.5 earlier today, now it's dropped back to -1.5... I'm doubtful you're going to see anything higher than +2.5 for the Kings.

I'm feeling pretty good about the Wizards. BOL to you.

It will get back to at least 2 so if you like the wiz, and you do, 1.5 is the time to take it if you didn't get it at 1.
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by Crusher13:

Great writeup....On other note, what are your feelings into Jackson entering Knicks soap opera
 
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Posted: #30
Cousins upgraded to probable according to Rotoinfo
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by Crusher13:

Great writeup....On other note, what are your feelings into Jackson entering Knicks soap opera

Lots of thoughts.

This is the only role he'd accept (he would never be a head coach of this group of misfits) and Melo says he'd 'change his game' for Jackson that is, go away from ISO-Melo.

Well that's interesting. So Melo, with your team in the gutter all year, it took Jackson coming in for you to say that?

And here's the irony.

Change your game? And go to who? More shots for Bargnani, JR, THJr or Pablo Prigioni? 

His statement cuts two ways. He should have been willing to sacrifice his ISO-Melo for the team before Jackson but even if he did, the Knicks had no other options.

Here's the ultimate irony. Phil Jackson doesn't like players like Melo but i think he'd be forced to keep him (as the Knicks can't not offer him the max as he'd be certain to walk then) but even if he kept him, up you have to guy this whole team and go through at least another very lean year.
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by primetimeblitz:

When it comes to the KINGS, there's no such thing as value. I've been betting them all year and its the same old story. This team either gets a lead or gets within reach for a comeback and simply crumbles at crunch time. Off the top of my head, i don't know if any of their covers this year was within 3 points. This team loves to play the foul game...

I hear ya. I know them well like you.
 
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Posted: #33
Maybe a reverse trap?! 
So many people got caught biting on the clipps last night so they'll be looking for a 'trap' tonight. I tried not to overthink it and took the wiz at -1 last night. 
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


It will get back to at least 2 so if you like the wiz, and you do, 1.5 is the time to take it if you didn't get it at 1.

Yeah grabbed it at -1 last night. I'd love to see a +4-+4.5 for a good middle opportunity :)
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by primetimeblitz:

Fwiw - this game opened at -2 for wiz . Nothing really tricky here.

Not sure if you read the OP but with a statement like that, you mustn't have.

The game opened at Wiz -1 on virtually every site. I checked all the lines early last night. 

So to say, "nothing tricky here' when Vegas knows the public will pound the wiz and require an outright win from an awful kings team, even at home, is ludicrous. 
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:

Cousins upgraded to probable according to Rotoinfo
 
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Posted: #37
Scal, do you bet at Bovada?

If so how do you request payment and have you had any issues?

I'm just starting there since my local was shut down
 
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Posted: #38
It's impossible for them to open the Wiz at a PK or a +1.... they have to be favorite here.... 

Chances are Vegas will probably take it up the azz on this one and they know it. They can't make this line any different. 


 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by thirdworld:

Maybe a reverse trap?! 
So many people got caught biting on the clipps last night so they'll be looking for a 'trap' tonight. I tried not to overthink it and took the wiz at -1 last night. 

Getting the wiz ML is quite enticing. But the Clips ML last night also lost obviously just to note.
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by trustandfall:


Yeah grabbed it at -1 last night. I'd love to see a +4-+4.5 for a good middle opportunity :)

I had this game at Sacto +4 and was hoping for 4.5 and would have grabbed that number. It opened at 1. 

That would be a sweet middle...in an alternate universe where lines move like we want them too...
 
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Posted: #41
[Quote: Originally Posted by jydfly] Scal, do you bet at Bovada?

If so how do you request payment and have you had any issues?

I'm just starting there since my local was shut down [/Quote


Yes.

One free check a month and it arrives about 7 days after cashing out. That's pretty damn good if you ask me.
 
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Posted: #42
No issues with the bank cashing the check?!?
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by GeneCam27:

It's impossible for them to open the Wiz at a PK or a +1.... they have to be favorite here.... 

Chances are Vegas will probably take it up the azz on this one and they know it. They can't make this line any different. 



I didn't want the wiz at +1 or a pick. I wanted the kings at +4. 

The magic got 5 at home vs the Wiz, are a better home team against good teams with big time wins, and that was on rest for both teams not a third in 4 like the kings are facing here. The kings should get similar respect, or should I say, disrespect.
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by jydfly:

No issues with the bank cashing the check?!?

Nope. I get a weird look from the teller because it's from the royal bank of Canada through an American subsidiary but they cash it every time. 


 
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Posted: #45
Line dropping with public on wiz. Seems fishy to me. Wouldn't be surprised if by game time kings are favored -1.5. Take the kings here. 
 
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Posted: #46
So scal who are you going with 
 
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Posted: #47
BTW, Scal, what do you expect the Knicks/Pacers line will be?
 
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Posted: #48
I say the Over is the safest play.
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by playboy37:

So scal who are you going with 

If I can get to +4 (as discussed above, likely won't) I'll take the kings but right now I'm sitting on it.

But still if early favorites don't pan out this moves lines in favor of late favorites (wiz).
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by oneplayaday22:

Line dropping with public on wiz. Seems fishy to me. Wouldn't be surprised if by game time kings are favored -1.5. Take the kings here. 

Unless there is ridiculous reverse line movement, It'll never get into negative territory for the kings. I still have wiz -2 -115 on bovada.
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