Posted:
#1
I don't like the 'Vegas Knows' theory. I've had lines move a full 4.5 points on some of my Knicks picks and the game turned out just as it was capped, line movement be damned allegedly 'roping in' squares.
But this Kings game and the line Vegas opened it at perplexes me.
First, the line.
1. It opened at Kings +1.
I was hoping to back the Kings here but I wanted, perhaps too optimistically, 4 and maybe even 4.5. How could I want that? The Wiz just spotted the Magic 5 at home on Friday. I'd much rather back a Magic team that is a very tough out at home when they come to play and one that has beaten OKC and the Pacers in their building than the Kings at home.
While the Wiz covered that game, they won by 4 and only covered by 1. Every point and even half point over 4 becomes valuable in what will likely be a very close game.
Some books already have this at +2 Kings. Why even open it at +1 when you will likely get the same action on +2 and then you can go to +3?
The opening line screams that this will be a close game and as the spread gets to that valuable 4 point threshold, the Kings become a better and better bet.
So, and this is pure conjecture but not out of the realm of recognizing betting patterns and line movements as a capper, books want Wiz money at +1, a line they don't mind spotting as it requires an outright win by either team, and then when it gets to +2/+3 when the line becomes more valuable on the Kings end in a close finish, they can absorb the sharp action they likely suspect they will be receiving on Sacramento as it rises.
I don't cap this way for my posted games as much but when I see lines open like this and I don't have all the info, I do rely on suspect movements and opening lines for some of my lesser bets.
But there is a problem with that theory, a BIG problem.
2. The kings are 0-10 without Cousins and we don't know his status yet.
Vegas HAS to know something here because you can't put a line on this game without knowing if Demarcus is playing.
You think the 'star out - team steps up' theory applies to all teams? NOT with the kings and NOT when it's Demarcus.
They've lost every single game without him playing. He matters. A LOT.
I searched the web high and low for an injury report on Cousins all of yesterday.
I found nothing.
Cousins is day to day with a knee issue and didn't play the last game against the T-Wolves.
So if he's not playing, watch out.
Does Vegas care? Apparently not as they took action on this game without knowing his status (or did they?).
Again, you have a low line without a player the kings apparently must have on the court to win a game. And with a line like +1, you must win. That point is irrelevant.
Are the books saying the Kings are such a ripe spot, the Kings take this, and they don't care if he plays and don't need to give the kings points? I don't know but it screams of something unusual, that is, a great deal of confidence in the Sacto side IMO.
Next point.
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