Posted:
#26
Nice read, good for you sir
RAPTORS VS. HEAT: Round 2 - Series Bet
Posted:
#27
Quote Originally Posted by jrgumpert:
This guy has been pretty good:
Great chance here for Miami to take home court advantage right away from Toronto, as Miami is fresh off a Game 6 road win at Charlotte, and a Game 7 home blowout win over the Hornets on Sunday and should be raring to go against a Toronto team that nearly wet the bed in Game 7 on Sunday against Indiana.
This guy has been pretty good:
Great chance here for Miami to take home court advantage right away from Toronto, as Miami is fresh off a Game 6 road win at Charlotte, and a Game 7 home blowout win over the Hornets on Sunday and should be raring to go against a Toronto team that nearly wet the bed in Game 7 on Sunday against Indiana.
The Raptors won their first playoff series in over a decade on Sunday, but it sure wasn't pretty. Toronto netted just 11 measly points in the 4th quarter of their 89-84 win, and they failed to cover the impost as the home chalk.
Yes, the Raptors have won 3 straight and 5 of the last 6 in this series both straight up and against the spread, but those are regular season meetings. This is the postseason, and I have a feeling the home team tonight spent a little too much time celebrating on Sunday after slipping past the Pacers.
I like the points here, and for the record I think Miami can win this one outright.
jrgumpert, you start out your post by saying "this guy has been pretty good." I don't know if you are jealous or what, but Scalabrini has been much more than "pretty good." He has been fantastic! Not only does he give us brilliant writeups, he simply does not miss on his picks. On top of that, Scalabrini is generous with his time and modest about his success.
Posted:
#28
Would you at least put $100 on Raptors now to make this bet a free ride since their nice size dogs now?
| 368484742-1 | 3/21/16 6:39pm | $25.00 | $500.00 | Pending | 3/21/16 7:05pm Basketball NBA Eastern Conference - Miami Heat +2000 | |
| 368483209-1 | 3/21/16 6:29pm | $75.00 | $1,500.00 | Pending | 3/21/16 7:05pm Basketball NBA Eastern Conference - Miami Heat +2000 | |
| 368481970-1 | 3/21/16 6:19pm | $25.00 | $500.00 | Pending | 3/21/16 7:05pm Basketball NBA Eastern Conference - Miami Heat +2000 | |
Posted:
#31
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
2016 Record: 12-2
HEAT +130 to win the series
Yes, I know this opened higher but this is the line now. Who cares what line I got? This is the one you are looking at now and I'm offering the Heat as a pick.
Why?
1. Kyle Lowry
Bottom line: The guy is injured. He was injured last year vs. the Wizards and they smoked the Raps in 4, in part, because of it.
Not only is he injured but he aggravated the injury in game 7. He's had one decent game in his last 16 games.
His series stats? 13.9 pts. 31.6% shooting. 16.3% 3pt-FG!!!
Folks they aren't winning because of him, they are winning in spite of him.
16 games of below average play screams things will stay status quo or get worse, plain and simple. And you can't have that happen in later playoff rounds.
2. Kyle Lowry and Demar Derozan
Lowry again? Yes. Because he's a dynamic duo with Derozan.
You want to take the Raptors? Well here is what you are getting from your two best players in the playoffs.
The combined averages of the two during the regular season:
44.7 Pts; 43.6% FG; 36.3% 3Pt FG; 9.2 Reb
The last 7 playoff games?
31.8 Pts; 31.7% FG; 16.5% 3 Pt FG; 7.7 Reb
That is an extraordinarily troubling drop-off.
The only reason the Raps are winning is because they have a much deeper bench this year. Biyambo; Joseph; Powell; Patterson. These guys are coming up big.
But I said it before and I'll say it again: this is a league of stars. Your stars will get you to the promised land and the more you depend on role players for the bulk of your output, the less good fortune you'll find in the playoffs.
3. Game 7
Well let's look at the respective Game 7's. It could be argued the Heat had a tougher draw and record-wise and seeding-wise.
The problem was that Indy looked as good as the Raptors did all series and it came down to the very last possession to decide it.
Now how did the Heat close out their series against a gutsy and talented Hornets team?
A 33 point shellacking...the 5th largest win in a game 7 ever.
What does that speak to? Experience. Tradition. Culture. Championships. Talent. Will to win.
All of which the Raptors had less of and in some areas, none of, and it showed.
Did you watch their game 7 folks? Yes they had big leads. But as you expected, they gave it all away because they had the 15 year losing streak in the first round on their shoulders. They are young, inexperienced and got tight at the wrong time (and didn't cover). And they had some nice home cooking with the refs as the NBA admitted to a call that should have went the Pacers way late (with Mahinmi).
A highlight: 4/20 shooting in the 4th. Every possession waiting until the last 5 seconds to move the ball. Do that against Miami and you will pay dearly.
4. Joe Johnson
This is a footnote in the series but noticeable nonetheless. The last time Derozan and Johnson went head to head in the playoffs? Nets Vs. Raps which the Nets took in 7 in 2014.
While Johnson has slowed, this series certainly can spark some confidence in him as he average 21.9 in that series. This is a possible psychological motivator and confidence builder the JJ when the Heat need it most.
5. Hassan Whiteside
The Raps love to go inside and this guy his a whole different ballgame in comparison to Mahinmi.
Not only that, but Miami was a rebounding leviathan with him on the floor towards the end of that series. In games 4-7 they outrebound the Hornets +10, +9, +15, +22!
Derozan and Lowry will have a much tougher time with their traditional games of driving to the hoop and will lean on mid-range jumpers and threes more which they haven't been hitting.
6. Experience
Raptors - 2 playoff series wins in 21 years.
Heat? Do we even need to go through it? This is a comment on culture. This is a winning culture and that matters.
Heat - 630 games of playoff experience vs. 260 for the Raptors. That matter folks.
7. Intangibles
- The hangover effect from the Raptors win. Although the Heat have one day to travel, the Raps had the late game while the Heat played at 1 pm. They have the entire day to cool down while the Raps still may be on cloud nine today after the biggest win their franchise history.
- Dragic, the guy the Heat brought in precisely for this series (to get back to glory), had 25 last game, a revelation from someone who was underperforming, stepping up in the biggest of spots.
- Both these teams have identical almost records since Feb 28th 17-8 (Raps) vs. 16-8 (Heat). Therefore, they both are on even footing and with Lowry injured, the Heat have an advantage in terms of momentum
- The Lebron effect. You know this Heat team is fully confident it can go toe to tow with the Cavs in the ECF. That will motivate them even more. Imagine losing Lebron and knocking out Lebron and the Cavs to go to the Finals. That's almost as good as a championship they almost certainly couldn't win this year against the West.
- Raps went 3-1 against the Heat during the regular season but never faced a fully healthy Heat team.
- Does Bosh get on the floor against his former team as he's campaigning for? Probably not, but if there's a slim possibility he does, more advantage to the Heat.
This is not a Raptors team that can win the East. They lose here or to the Cavs. And after their first playoff win in 21 years, their season is already a success. While Paul George will no longer be a lockdown defender against the Raps, we have Wade and company and an experience class to take this bet home. Only need to go 1-1 in the the first two to get an advantage so this bet can be sized up after Game 2.
been trying to tell people for a while now he's playing injured. The fact that he or the team haven't made any reports doesn't help.
didn't catch game 7 but when did he aggravate it? Its sad cause he was good for 3-4 3's a game which opened up the floor for him and demar. This team goes as far as lowry and always has. Him being injured is goodbye to their playoff hopes.
The only net positive player last series was powell smh.
Im shocked they didn't rest lowry. the injury clearly occurred in early march cause thats when his shooting dropped off a cliff yet he played meaningless games. outside of lebron i dunno a player who's relied on as much for his teams success.
Posted:
#32
Quote Originally Posted by MaxWagner:
jrgumpert, you start out your post by saying "this guy has been pretty good." I don't know if you are jealous or what, but Scalabrini has been much more than "pretty good." He has been fantastic! Not only does he give us brilliant writeups, he simply does not miss on his picks. On top of that, Scalabrini is generous with his time and modest about his success.
jrgumpert, you start out your post by saying "this guy has been pretty good." I don't know if you are jealous or what, but Scalabrini has been much more than "pretty good." He has been fantastic! Not only does he give us brilliant writeups, he simply does not miss on his picks. On top of that, Scalabrini is generous with his time and modest about his success.
when he said "pretty good" he wasnt referring to scalabrine,he was talking about the source of the quoted piece that he posted....but most likely isnt allowed to use the name of touts in here.
train ... woo woo!
Posted:
#40
Quote Originally Posted by melossinglet:
when he said "pretty good" he wasnt referring to scalabrine,he was talking about the source of the quoted piece that he posted....but most likely isnt allowed to use the name of touts in here.
Exactly right, thanks for clarifying for me. Covers sells picks and I can understand them not wanting touts names mentioned since they are paying for us to be on this site and that is part of their business. (selling picks)
Posted:
#43
Scal, unfortunately for me I'm a bit late to the party. Is Miami still worth it at -150? I want to take them but Toronto did the same thing against the Pacers (lose game 1, win game 2) and then blew them out in Game 3 so not sure if I should go in now or not. Do you have any thoughts on game 3?
Posted:
#46
Quote Originally Posted by Mike C.:
Scal, unfortunately for me I'm a bit late to the party. Is Miami still worth it at -150? I want to take them but Toronto did the same thing against the Pacers (lose game 1, win game 2) and then blew them out in Game 3 so not sure if I should go in now or not. Do you have any thoughts on game 3?
Scal, unfortunately for me I'm a bit late to the party. Is Miami still worth it at -150? I want to take them but Toronto did the same thing against the Pacers (lose game 1, win game 2) and then blew them out in Game 3 so not sure if I should go in now or not. Do you have any thoughts on game 3?
It's a bad price but even at -155 (it was -185 at 1-0 and you're only getting $.30 discount for a Raps win!), if I were late to the party, I'd have to take it.
Derozan last game: 9-24. Lowry AGAIN under 30% 7-22.
You just aren't going to prevail in a series against a team like the Heat with those kinds of shooting percentages from your two biggest stars. Heat will cut down on the unbelievable amount of turnovers in Game 2 and take the lead in the series.
I was watching the post game presser of and the question was along the lines of "Can you win in a normal fashion" (i.e. can you just get a convincing win). Both answered that they were winning but it was ugly and they didn't know how to fix that at the moment.
You have to go all the way back to Game 3 of the Pacers series to find a win where the Raps were...the Raps and all their offensive efficiency was on display, that is, they didn't blow a lead, need a last second shot, need a replay to wave off an opponent's shot or win in OT.
So how will this change? It won't. Casey is trying every combination of players imaginable (to his credit). But unfortunately this shows his hand that his regular lineup is not getting the job done.
Remember, Game 2 was really a Game 7 for the Raps because if you go down 2-0 at home, you pretty much have lost the series. Not really a surprise that they won. And it still took OT as they simply couldn't hold the lead. But that is very telling! Yes, I see the Heat winning Game 3 and I'm not really interested in the spread given I don't have to cap it because of the series bet.
To all the other guys, sorry I'm late getting back to the thread to comment on Game 2. I already have more than enough on this series at + money to take any more at - money.
Posted:
#50
Quote Originally Posted by AuTT:
I like the spot at +220 now for the Heat to win series, the Raptors did not convince me at all.
I like the spot at +220 now for the Heat to win series, the Raptors did not convince me at all.
The problem is Whiteside, who I made sure to emphasize in the original write-up.
He denies penetration to Lowry and Derozan and is effective in doing so, especially in the Game 1 win.
But now, the Raps backcourt has the advantage, because we know they can drive inside on McRoberts and Amare so perimeter defenders lay off a bit on the guards.
And you saw the result in Lowry's line last night, his best game in what seemed like ages.
Whiteside is worth more than a point on the line. I'd put his value as high as 2/2.5 points (even though many here would vehemently disagree with that and that's fine). In fact his value makes the next game more of a coin-flip if he can't play IMO which is why I cannot play a side with his status up in the air.
Valanciunas' injury did not appear even remotely severe so he will be out there imo.
The Heat are already coming in the series injured without the vital and experienced frontcourt presence Bosh could provide. To lose a league's top-flight center too? It's a lot to bear.
Let's just hope for the best and hope he gets back out there ASAP because they need him.
We all knew this series wouldn't be 3-0 at this point so if the Heat can win Game 4, we are right where we belong.
Also, let's hope Kyle has not officially broken out of his near one-third season slump.
Just get Whiteside back, win Game 2 and move forward.
The Whiteside injury changes the series and that is on me because I chose a series bet over two side winners in the Heat in the first two games. It's something you have to be responsible for with a futures bet of any kind.
Hot Forum Topics
