Public Bloodbath in Game 7 ( With Looonnng Analysis)

I have been gambling on sports for many years. In every sport over the course of a season there are often a handful of opportunities that present themselves which allow a sharp gambler to take advantage of “public ineptitude”. What is public ineptitude you ask? Public ineptitude is very simple. The average sports gambler gambles for several reasons.  Some of them are action junkies, some enjoy the fun an entertainment aspect and some just have addictions that they simply can’t get away from. Regardless of their reasoning, these types of gamblers are the ones who usually attempt to win money with parleys, teasers, heavy favorites etc. They often chase their losses and have no problem laying chalk in any sport. The problem with this type of gambler is that they don’t have a plan, system or enough money management skills to be successful. The majority of their bets are made with no rhyme or reason and the majority of them rely almost solely on emotion and the perception of what they have recently seen to make their wagers. For example, Team X just blew out Team Y by 20 points. Because of this the average gambler will now be happy to lay -10 on an inflated number during Team X’s next game against Team Z. Bookmakers use the trick of recent perception all the time, often creating attractive lines that easily fool the public into making mistakes and losing money in the process, hence the term public ineptitude.

So what does all this have to do with Game 7? Over the last 2 games the public has watched the Spurs win a blowout in game 5 and then narrowly lose an overtime game that they should have won if not for a late game miracle three by Ray Allen. Despite this, Vegas came out immediately and laid out a number of Heat -6.5 for Game 7. The line was immediately bet down to -6 by the public who are licking their chops thinking they are getting huge value by betting the Spurs. This has boosted public percentages on the Spurs to astronomical levels rarely seen on underdogs in any game.

Let’s look at the facts. While I certainly don’t base my bets strictly on public percentages, they can still be a valuable tool to look at in certain situations for handicapping purposes(especially when they are all very similar) Here is a look at some of the more reputable sites that give out public percentages.

Covers- 75%

Freesportsbet.com – 72%

Pregame.com- 74%

Vegasinsider.com – 72%

 

As you can see, the public perception of what they just saw over the last 2 games is steering them towards what they perceive as great value in game 7. Realistically, if Vegas thought that this game was going to stay close why would they be offering the overwhelming number of Spurs backers 6 points? Big game public dogs are usually a recipe for disaster and because of that this game has public massacre written all over it.

While, I am not a huge believer in trends, they can provide value in certain situations and can be especially useful in some of the biggest games of the season where large amount of bets are being made. To further demonstrate my point here are a few things to take note of before placing your bet.

Game 7’s in the NBA have notoriously favored the home team. Including all playoff rounds in the last 5 years there have been 16 game 7’s played in the NBA playoffs.

 

In those 16 games the home team is 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS

Looking back even further to the last 29 Game 7’s, the home team is 22-7 SU and 19-10 ATS (65.5%)

Additionally, in the last 6 NBA Finals, Game 7’s the home team is 5-1 SU with the last visiting team win coming all the way back in 1978 when the Washington Bullets knocked off the Seattle Supersonics.

 

While all these stats and trends don’t guarantee any specific result, for the sake of argument let’s say that based on the dominance of home teams in game 7’s over the years, we agree that the Heat will win this game SU. With this assumption, it gives us an even more defined reason to feel that the +6 simply won’t be enough for Spurs backers. Believe it or not, in some cases betting the dog can be considered the square play. In this case I am very confident that the Spurs are the square play in Game 7.

 

 

 

 

 

In addition to all the stats, trends, percentages and probability that we already discussed, there are also several other things to consider when handicapping this game. Motivation, Effort, Experience, Confidence, Health, Conditioning and Talent are all important factors in determining who will be the next NBA champion. First we look at the obvious. Motivation and effort should be at a maximum for both teams. Experience is also a push because of the fact that both teams have numerous players with championship experience(Although an argument could be made that the Heat have more experience due to their 3 straight finals appearances).

That leaves Confidence, Health, Conditioning and Talent as the four remaining factors. In my estimation, all 4 of these categories go to the Heat. After a demoralizing loss for the Spurs and a huge comeback for the Heat, these teams are on opposite ends of the confidence scale. So much so that it caused Manu Ginobli to claim he was “devastated” and that he had “no clue” how they would get reenergized as a team. Those quotes are huge and speak volumes to the type of mindset that the Spurs are in right now. Whether or not any of the other players are stating this publically, there is no way that anyone on that team can be fully confident after coming that close to the championship and then collapsing with seconds to go.

Health and Conditioning both go to the Heat as well. Despite Tim Duncan’s historic career, Tony Parker is currently the best player on the Spurs. Tony Parker is also not healthy. While he is certainly proving his toughness by gutting it out, he is not at 100% and that is HUGE. You can make the argument that Dwayne Wade is equally or more injured than Parker but there is one major flaw in the argument. While Wade is certainly a valuable member of the team, he is not their best player. Luckily for Heat they happen to have the best player in the world on their team along with the greatest 3 point shooter in NBA history, thus giving them a significant edge. Conditioning also goes to the Heat and was very obvious in Game 6. Popovich had to rest all 3 of the Spurs big three for stretches during that game. Even if Duncan can give you 40 minutes, age and stamina will be a factor for the Spurs late in this game.

Finally I will leave you with this. After everything else is done and all the other stats, interviews, media reports and pre game garbage is out of the way, it will come down to talent. Simply put, the Heat have more of it. While the Spurs might have better continuity as a team, in a 1 game do or die scenario, talent will outweigh anything else and will be the difference. LeBron James is too good, too motivated and too focused to let this game slip away and the Miami Heat are a team of destiny which was already proven by the late game heroics of game 6.  The Heat will get it done tomorrow night and they will do it in dominating double digit fashion. I apologize for the long winded analysis but this is game 7 and I had a lot to say. Hopefully this was beneficial to at least a few people who read it.

 

Miami Heat -6 (5 units)

 

Good Luck My Friends 

 

Amazing and well thought out. I had the same exact thoughts I believe we the sharps will cash this game given the amount of action and the situation of the game. I'm on HEAT -6.5 as well, lets get it!

Thank you sir, I was foor the Heat to win straight up but after reading your post I am now confident to lay 6 points.

Thank you sir, I was foor the Heat to win straight up but after reading your post I am now confident to lay 6 points.

 

Only problem with your analysis is that playoff lines rarely move. What happened to these "public" lines in games 2 and 4? In fact, one could argue that games 2-5 in this series have been "square" bet, since the losing team in the previous game has covered. What I've learned from my experience is to not over think, and just bet the better team in a playoff series, especially in the ending games of a series. The spurs are 4-2 ats thus far. Good luck with your wagers.

i dont care what stats you see, the public is on Heat.

100 percent of gamblers lose after a few years of betting any never recover..so your analysis should really say what the public likes or what the so called sharp bettors like there all losers in the long run.....so just keep your bets light if what want to continue betting

Tonyrome, your an idiot.

Meanwhile you are zero for 2 on large plays in nba and 7 and 9 in bases since you started posting this week..just keeping it real in case anybody considering playing your pick blind tonight...

Well written piece, you've certainly  presented  what every Miami backer wants to hear...lol

The paragraph that starts with "In those 16 games..." shows irrifutable evidence how powerful the home court game 7 advantage is. It also shows that it is not absolute.

The undermining characteristic of your piece however is the bias shown when you gave Miami the edge in experience. Three staight finals appearences is certainly noteworthy, but one has to look at the fruit that that it bore.

No Rings....Rings....Pending   VS.   San Antonio's Ring count of 4-0 with the same core group of players?  You TILTED out on that.

Finally, three decades of coaching (on and off) and several championships later I learned a great many things regarding talent and teamwork. Superior talent is a blessing. Superior teamwork is earned. I've had both types of teams and I found that when confidence slips in a superior player, that team can suffer dire consequence. When a great team suffers, it self supports and self corrects.

I think we are in for an epic game.  BUT....... check does NOT mean checkmate. My money HAS to be on Coach Pop and San Antonio early in this game.

 My favorite team?

 Whoever covers the spread

 

I agree with Heat tonight I am waiting for in game better line, but they probably cover 6.

The SPURS are the square/public play here? I find that pretty tough to believe, public numbers be damned (I don't really trust them anyways)

And just in case you weren't convinced to take the HEAT yet you get the added bonus of a Scott Foster and Danny Crawford ref crew

https://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/miamiheat/post/_/id/14698/dan-crawford-the-heat-and-the-1-9-percent

The HEAT win tonight -- go buy the shoes

https://deadspin.com/lebrons-new-shoe-refers-to-him-as-a-two-time-champion-514040363

The NBA knows what it is doing.

on those game 7 trends....if you dig deeper game 7 home favs of 3 or more are 0-4-2 ats when playing a team with a winning % over .650.

love your analysis but the public was huge on miami on game 6 due to the fact they blow out opponents after a loss? i seriously doubt the public is huge on spurs.  the public will pound miami till they cannot pound them no more. with the same mentality that you have.  like most people believe " spurs had there chance in game 6 and now they have NO CHANCE" that is the publics perception for this game. hate to break you the news. good luck with your miami heat pick.  what most people are talking about NO WAY SPURS WIN GAME 7 ON THE ROAD they will get blown out . there oppurtinity was game 6"   i have heard that from about 15 people. not ONE person has said spurs will win or even make game 7 competitive

excellent analysis.  The best point out of all of this is that " in some cases betting the dog can be considered the square play" which I think it is in most cases.  Anytime the average bettor thinks he's getting over on the books, it usually doesn't end well.  Thanks for the input. 

The refs on tonight's game are a combined 35 and 47 for home favs in 6 to 7 point range..Monty McCutchen takes away any Scott Foster bias as spurs are 10 for last 10 with him reffing..also lead official Dan Crawford reffed june 11 playoff game which San Antonio blew out Miami..

lol. Another one of these I'm going against the public..and taking the Heat.