PACERS THREAD FROM A LOCAL

Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

Alan, if this game doesn't open your eyes, as far as the league being involved in trying to determine the outcome of games, nothing will. I'm very curious to hear how (if at all) you will defend the integrity of the officials (and the calls they made) in this game. This game was handed on a silver platter to the Pacers: nothing more, nothing less.

Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:



Here's why I'm going to disagree with you, even though I have to consciously convince myself that he needs to stay.  Work with me on this one...

The Pacers team, as currently constructed, have struggled on offense and defense with no explanation.  Hill is not a point guard, and he's slow so he's easy to contain with athletic wing players.  Hibbert can be awesome...and then a complete disaster.  Paul George has these MVP flashes, and then can disappear for games (but that's what 24 year old guys do when going through the process of going from rookie to star to superstar).  West is a beast, he's going to pound the inside and be a locker room stability.  Remember all this when I get to my point...

Look at all the teams that have won championships over the last 30 years.  All of them have had an element of unpredictability.  They had their superstar(s)...and they had a guy or guys that you didn't know what you were going to get from night to night.  Even their own team didn't know...but the other team didn't know either...and it worked.  Bill Laimbeer was a talented player...but you never knew when he was going to do something dirty/crazy.  Dennis Rodman was a monster rebounder...but you never knew when he was going to score 18 points, block 7 shots, or kick a camera guy in the b*lls.  The list goes on and on of guys that frustrates the hell out of the other team...but you're glad he's on your team.  Derek Fisher, Michael Cooper, Robert Horry, etc.  For whatever reason, these guys played weird roles and did weird things at weird times for championship teams.  Most of them have multiple rings.

So what's the point of all of this?  The last time the Pacers had some wildcards like Lance, they ran into the stands and beat the sh*t out of some deserving (and some innocent) fans in Detroit.  They were also the best team in the league at the time.  If you want to win championships in the NBA, you have to have the best players on your team...and if you don't...you have to have a wildcard.  And Lance is the wildcard.  I can argue he's the scariest guy for the opposition on the Pacers roster right now.  Does Hibbert scare you?  No.  Does Hill scare you?  Nope.  West?  Kind of, but he's not a threat in transition or from behind the arc.  Paul George?  On nights when he's on fire, he's scary, but he's not intimidating when he's not shooting well.  Lance is the scariest guy on the floor.  He's scary if you're a Pacers fan, but more importantly he's scary if you're the other team.  They can't plan for him, they can't plan for what he will do on offense or defense, and he's the guy that nobody knows what he will do next.  One of the biggest advantages the Superstars in the NBA have always had and will always have is the mental edge.  Talking trash, making the other team feel inadequate and unconfident, intimidating the other team, etc...Lance is the only guy on the Pacers roster that can do that right now.

I'm a believer in that in order to win a championship, you need some lucky breaks to go your way.  Every championship team has had some craziness go in their favor.  Lance is the Pacers craziness.  Sometimes he hurts his team...but sometimes he wins games for them.  The question I ask myself is this:  Would I rather have Lance on my team...or play against Lance. 

I want the craziness on my team surrounded by PG, West and company.  If I'm the Pacers, I can't win a championship by matching athletes and strategy with Miami, OKC, and SA.  But with a guy like Lance (where Spoelstra, Brooks, and Pop can't plan for what he will do), there's a chance he single handedly can win 2 games in a series when he gets in a groove.  If you make the investment you have to take the good with the bad, and accept that he will have bizarre moments...but you also have to realize that the other team will be perplexed by him...and that's your advantage. 

I would give him the money, and take the risk.  I don't see who else you can replace him with and get the upside of a guy who can win playoff series just by his attitude and fearlessness. 

Here's one more tidbit.  Larry Bird is one of the all time top 3 trash talkers.  He loved the mental edge, and dominated opponents with it.  He relates to Lance, and understands the importance of his craziness.  No doubt Larry Legend keeps him here. 

Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:



There's a lot of things I hoped to get out of my Pacers thread this year...Turning a profit, exchanging ideas, good conversation, different view points coming together in a respectable manner to make us all smarter as bettors...and I made it point to keep everything positive, and I was shocked to not get any negative posts on these threads.  Everyone has been fantastic.  But I'm going to pick on someone in the hopes that it makes everyone better.  The whole goal in this industry is to make money...and the books make more money than the bettors...and if you want to know why, in a nutshell, just look at the post above.

If you ever catch yourself making a statement like that, and thinking about putting your hard earned money on a bet...please, remember this exact situation.  I will now dissect everything wrong with this gentleman's statement, and hopefully everyone can learn, and make money in the future by not making these same mistakes.

1.  The statement is based purely on emotion.  There are no statistics, no historical evidence or reasons provided for why the series is over.  If this was a true bettor, he would've posted the record that the Heat are 8-0 in game 5's when they have a 3-1 lead in the series.  He also would've posted that the Pacers were 7-0 in games where they trail in the series over the last 2 years.  The last time they lost in a game where the trailed in a series was game 6 2012 against...the Heat.  His comment was posted in a thread dedicated to a Pacers bettor viewpoint in order to apparently rub it in the face of a Pacers fan...when all of us bettors are on the same team...to win against the books, not each other.

2.  "guess those off season moves to beat the heat not working".  Pacers played great against the Heat in the regular season and earned the number 1 seed and home court advantage.  If this was an actual factor in a bet, I would love to hear what the "off season moves" actually are and why they aren't working.  I know every single one of them, and I know why some are working and some aren't.  I would guess this person doesn't know any of them, and certainly doesn't know what matchups are working and what matchups aren't.  Know why Copeland and Turner aren't playing?  Real bettors do.  Know why Rashard Lewis is getting big minutes?  Real bettors do.

3.  "no way they come back from dwn 3-1".  Actually, there's lots of ways they can come back from dwn 3-1.  Is it possible?  Yes...is it likely?  No.  If you know these teams, you know the Pacers have a huge advantage inside...and PG and Lance can go off at anytime.  Before this series, the Pacers have played great on the road.  The Pacers have also beat the Heat at Miami several times over the Big 3 era.  Andersen, and Allen are banged up.  Wade plays better off of rest, but if Indiana wins tonight he doesn't get the big rest he needs.  But that would take research to know these things.

4.  "SERIES OVER...FINISHED...."  My favorite thing on this website...the ol' "caps" function.  If it's in caps, it must be so.  I was going to make a bet on the Pacers, but this gentleman made a statement in CAPS...so that means it's a 100% guarantee.  Forget the analysis, the writeup, the stats to back up the bet...as long as it's posted in CAPS...that means it's a sure thing.  If you have to convince yourself and others that your bet is a winner by being loud instead of factual...you might want to give it a second thought.

5.  Last thing I'll end with is the fact that this guy didn't look at trends with O/U, halves, quarters, etc.  There's lots of bets offered, lots of opportunities...I've been betting for a while and I don't remember looking at the books and seeing the option of betting "SERIES OVER...FINISHED" or "SERIES NOT OVER...NOT FINISHED JUST YET".

Made a play tonight on the first quarter (which won), and even though I'm a Pacers fan, and the Pacers are down 2-3 in the series...the bets in this thread are 3-2-1 for a slight profit in this series.

Bottom line is (and I apologize to this individual, but hopefully he learns something and makes a profit off of reading this) don't make the mistakes that were made in this statement if you're going to make a bet.  Do the proper research, ignore the emotion, and be able to defend the bet whether it wins or loses.  I've made so many horrible bets over the years it makes me sick...but I've learned from them, and I've ended up profiting in the long run.  Hope this helps someone, especially the gentlemen used in the example

Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

Quote Originally Posted by Efini:

Hey Alan,

Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

Well, all signs point to this being the last game of the year for the Pacers, and it's hard to make the case that the Pacers can push this to a game 7.  However, I do have a bet that I will make tonight which is the Pacers TT over 87.5.  I think that even if Miami blows them out, there will be some 4th quarter points...and if this game is close, or if the Pacers win they will get over this total.

I saw something interesting today that Bird had a talk with Lance about his behavior.  Everyone assumes that Bird told him to calm down, and not act like he did in Game 6.  But I truly wonder if Bird told him to keep doing what he's doing.  Bird is very close to Lance, and takes pride in Lance's rise to a dangerous/volatile player...and let's not forget Bird's history as a player.  Let's just say he was no saint.

If the Pacers stand a chance, it will be with David West/Hibbert dominating inside, Lance being fearless, and Miami not hitting their 3's.  I believe West can dominate, and if the Heat get open 3's this game will be over quickly, but if Miami doesn't shoot lights out from 3, and Hibbert has one of his "on" games and West stays aggressive without being in foul trouble...this game could be interesting.  And if this game is close in the 3rd quarter, we could  get one of the most exciting and unpredictable finishes from the NBA in a long time.

As a Pacers fan, obviously I hope this series goes to 7, but as basketball fans we should all hope this game goes down to the last shot, and then goes to game 7.

The West games have been over by the 3rd quarter, and for the most part have been boring games to watch from an entertainment perspective. The last game between the Heat and Pacers was by far the best game of either Conference finals...so I really hope the Pacers can dig deep to make this a great game setting up an incredible game 7.

Hopefully, this won't be the last Pacers play this year

Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

Quote Originally Posted by diondimucci:

major props alan for keeping a dedicated pacers thread up and running since the very first game in late october when the pacers allowed a 3 pointer to orlando at the buzzer to blow the cover as 12 point favorites.  i remember that game as i do all my gut wrenching losses, all 100000 of them.