PACERS THREAD FROM A LOCAL

With Birdman out, I'm going to make a small play on Pacers TT over 88.5.  I like the Pacers to put up points inside...not sure if they can beat Miami tonight, but I expect some points without Andersen clogging the middle and getting rebounds.  this is a very underrated loss for Miami IMHO.

Odd way to win a bet...didn't feel like the Pacers scored 60 pts let alone 90...but I'll take it!

Don't know if anyone heard it or not, but in Paul George's post-game press conference he complained about the reffing, said Miami had "home cooking" with the calls, and then said that the Pacers outplayed the Heat.

I'm really not sure what the f*ck he is talking about, but clearly he should not have been cleared to play after his concussion because that is insane to say.

First and foremost, the Pacers did not outplay the Heat.  The Heat were more efficient, more aggressive, more organized, faster, better at shooting, rebounding, passing, stealing, dribbling, defense and offense.  I think that about covers it.  To say that he actually thought the Pacers outplayed the Heat is dillusional.

And then for a player to complain about the refs...that's the ultimate sign that a star is not ready to make the leap to superstar.  A superstar doesn't have the mindset that the refs can affect the outcome.  A superstar goes out and does his job, and carries his team to victory.  A superstar earns the calls.  A superstar embraces the challenge and uses the refs as motivation to play even harder.  It's really disappointing to hear that from the "leader" on this team.  Did the refs miss some calls?  Of course...they always will.  Did they determine the outcome of the game?  Of course not.  The Pacers lack of preparation, fight, and aggressiveness determined the outcome.  There were three calls that the Pacers could complain about.  Lance's offensive foul was terrible...Wade traveled big time when he ran across the lane without a thought of dribbling...and George Hill got mugged and didn't get a call.  Big deal...I watched Lebron get fouled on a driving layup and it didn't get called either.  If I'm the Pacers I need to figure out how to stop turning the ball over, and how to run a proper offense (which is baffling they still haven't figured this out).  Right now David West is the superstar on the Pacers, and Paul George is just a role player. 

Alan -- Danny Crawford and James Capers are statistically the two biggest Heat refs in the NBA -- The Heat are 23-2 when Capers refs their playoff games -- Danny Crawford is so favorable to the Heat ESPN made an article on it -- a 20+ FT differential in a 12 point game is a difference maker, and someone needs to mention it

I'm not arguing that these guys make mistakes, and that they are human and will lean towards certain teams, and players.  But if you're Paul George, and you look at that game last night, and the refs is what you blame in the post-game press conference...that's just not having a grasp on what is happening.  They came out with a terrible game plan, no hustle, and no adjustments, and nobody except for West and Scola looked like they cared.  In game 1, the Pacers had a big free throw advantage because they were aggressive.  Last night they didn't crash the boards, they didn't attack, they flat out didn't deserve free throws.  The Heat shot more free throws because they drove successfully, and the Pacers played lazy defense.

Also, the Heat win lots of playoff games.  I'm sure they have winning records with most refs.  And the game was a 12 point game because the Heat gave up a bunch of garbage points.  That was a 25 point loss if the Heat kept their foot down.

There have certainly been some frustrating calls from a Pacers perspective, but from my experience, and watching basketball the more aggressive team tends to get more of the calls.  If one team is playing faster, better and more aggressive, they will get the benefit of the doubt, and that's what bothers me being a Pacers fans.  Whenever the Pacers pound the inside with confidence, they get free throws.  However, when they play this unorganized outside shooting game, and they don't get calls they complain.  And it really does bother me that PG focused on things other than his play, and his teams play. 

If somebody is going to make a fuss about the refs...it has to be from the head coach.  That's his job...to take the bullet and the fine, and lay into the refs and try and get the refs on your side the next game. 

Hindsight is 20/20, Yes the Pacers played without urgency or motivation and Yes the refs for most part were on Miami side, but if they had the DESIRE and COJONES to WIN the game at the very least they could of kept it very close or won it straight up. this Pacer team are a bunch of SISSY's  that don't deserve to be a #1 seed much less on the playoffs, their goose is COOKED. I would of rather liked to have watched the WIZ KIDS played Miami they would of given them a tougher time  than this sorry a#$ Pacers

Isn't this a self-fulfilling prophecy though?  If a team is getting called for fouls, they'll naturally be more passive.  If a team isn't getting called, then they'll be more aggressive. If Lebron hacks Hill, and no foul is called, he'll do it again. If Hill steals the ball clean and a foul is called, he probably won't bother reaching for the ball at all next time.  Same thing with block/charge.  Players won't penetrate as often if they're getting too many charge calls against them.  Especially if they have too many fouls as well. 

Refs can influence a game, even when they're not blowing the whistle. 

 

That's a choice teams and players make.  If they get a couple calls that go against them, they can choose to keep being aggressive or they can curl up and get out of their game and complain about the refs.  Lebron doesn't change the way he plays based on the refs calls.  Wade (for all his b*tching and moaning and flopping) doesn't get out of his game if he doesn't get a call he wants.  Jordan didn't change his game...Bird, Magic, Kareem, etc.  Weak teams and players do that.  The superstars fight through it and move on to the next play. 

I believe the guy that deserves more calls than he actually gets is Lebron.  Lebron gets hammered almost every time he drives to the basket, and he very rarely complains.  He's bigger, faster and stronger than everybody else, and if you watch closely he gets fouled quite a bit without getting the call.  He puts his head down, runs back and plays great defense then comes back on offense and doesn't change a thing.  What I watched the Pacers do last night was what the overmatched AAU middle school team does when they are getting beat by bigger and better players.  They complain to the refs...sulk, and get steam rolled.  I just shake my head and roll my eyes when I see a professional team in the Eastern Conference finals complain about the reffing when everybody in the world watched them give a half-assed effort, with little to no hustle.

Now, PG can make it up and learn a lesson by fighting back and lead his team to a win in Game 5, and then in Game 6, etc, but what I saw and heard last night from him was disappointing.  I will give him this...he's 24 years old, and guys have to learn...hopefully David West pulled him aside and explained to him you don't blame the refs...you play harder and win on the court.

I'm hoping tonight isn't the last bet I'll get to make on the Pacers this year...the games in this series seem to have the Pacers doing well in the first half, and then Miami takes control in the second half.  Not sure why that is, but I'll make a bet hoping the early Pacers success continues.  Gonna play Pacers to win the 1q.

I have no idea what will happen in this game.  Maybe the Pacers come out motivated and push it to game 6...maybe they fall apart and get blown out.  Nothing would surprise me.

guess those off season moves to beat the heat not working...ind. is done...no way they come back from dwn 3-1...SERIES OVER...FINISHED....

Ind 1st qtr, Mia 2nd qtr, Ind 1st half, Mia 2nd half, Mia -1 fg.  Good luck every one  

When it comes to the Pacers the last three months I agree with you

"I have no idea what will happen in this game.  Maybe the Pacers come out motivated and push it to game 6...maybe they fall apart and get blown out.  Nothing would surprise me."

BOL

Alan, this fuc-*in idiot Lance has to go.

Alan, if this game doesn't open your eyes, as far as the league being involved in trying to determine the outcome of games, nothing will. I'm very curious to hear how (if at all) you will defend the integrity of the officials (and the calls they made) in this game. This game was handed on a silver platter to the Pacers: nothing more, nothing less.

Here's why I'm going to disagree with you, even though I have to consciously convince myself that he needs to stay.  Work with me on this one...

The Pacers team, as currently constructed, have struggled on offense and defense with no explanation.  Hill is not a point guard, and he's slow so he's easy to contain with athletic wing players.  Hibbert can be awesome...and then a complete disaster.  Paul George has these MVP flashes, and then can disappear for games (but that's what 24 year old guys do when going through the process of going from rookie to star to superstar).  West is a beast, he's going to pound the inside and be a locker room stability.  Remember all this when I get to my point...

Look at all the teams that have won championships over the last 30 years.  All of them have had an element of unpredictability.  They had their superstar(s)...and they had a guy or guys that you didn't know what you were going to get from night to night.  Even their own team didn't know...but the other team didn't know either...and it worked.  Bill Laimbeer was a talented player...but you never knew when he was going to do something dirty/crazy.  Dennis Rodman was a monster rebounder...but you never knew when he was going to score 18 points, block 7 shots, or kick a camera guy in the b*lls.  The list goes on and on of guys that frustrates the hell out of the other team...but you're glad he's on your team.  Derek Fisher, Michael Cooper, Robert Horry, etc.  For whatever reason, these guys played weird roles and did weird things at weird times for championship teams.  Most of them have multiple rings.

So what's the point of all of this?  The last time the Pacers had some wildcards like Lance, they ran into the stands and beat the sh*t out of some deserving (and some innocent) fans in Detroit.  They were also the best team in the league at the time.  If you want to win championships in the NBA, you have to have the best players on your team...and if you don't...you have to have a wildcard.  And Lance is the wildcard.  I can argue he's the scariest guy for the opposition on the Pacers roster right now.  Does Hibbert scare you?  No.  Does Hill scare you?  Nope.  West?  Kind of, but he's not a threat in transition or from behind the arc.  Paul George?  On nights when he's on fire, he's scary, but he's not intimidating when he's not shooting well.  Lance is the scariest guy on the floor.  He's scary if you're a Pacers fan, but more importantly he's scary if you're the other team.  They can't plan for him, they can't plan for what he will do on offense or defense, and he's the guy that nobody knows what he will do next.  One of the biggest advantages the Superstars in the NBA have always had and will always have is the mental edge.  Talking trash, making the other team feel inadequate and unconfident, intimidating the other team, etc...Lance is the only guy on the Pacers roster that can do that right now.

I'm a believer in that in order to win a championship, you need some lucky breaks to go your way.  Every championship team has had some craziness go in their favor.  Lance is the Pacers craziness.  Sometimes he hurts his team...but sometimes he wins games for them.  The question I ask myself is this:  Would I rather have Lance on my team...or play against Lance. 

I want the craziness on my team surrounded by PG, West and company.  If I'm the Pacers, I can't win a championship by matching athletes and strategy with Miami, OKC, and SA.  But with a guy like Lance (where Spoelstra, Brooks, and Pop can't plan for what he will do), there's a chance he single handedly can win 2 games in a series when he gets in a groove.  If you make the investment you have to take the good with the bad, and accept that he will have bizarre moments...but you also have to realize that the other team will be perplexed by him...and that's your advantage. 

I would give him the money, and take the risk.  I don't see who else you can replace him with and get the upside of a guy who can win playoff series just by his attitude and fearlessness. 

Here's one more tidbit.  Larry Bird is one of the all time top 3 trash talkers.  He loved the mental edge, and dominated opponents with it.  He relates to Lance, and understands the importance of his craziness.  No doubt Larry Legend keeps him here. 

Alan -- your thoughts on the officiating tonight please...

There's a lot of things I hoped to get out of my Pacers thread this year...Turning a profit, exchanging ideas, good conversation, different view points coming together in a respectable manner to make us all smarter as bettors...and I made it point to keep everything positive, and I was shocked to not get any negative posts on these threads.  Everyone has been fantastic.  But I'm going to pick on someone in the hopes that it makes everyone better.  The whole goal in this industry is to make money...and the books make more money than the bettors...and if you want to know why, in a nutshell, just look at the post above.

If you ever catch yourself making a statement like that, and thinking about putting your hard earned money on a bet...please, remember this exact situation.  I will now dissect everything wrong with this gentleman's statement, and hopefully everyone can learn, and make money in the future by not making these same mistakes.

1.  The statement is based purely on emotion.  There are no statistics, no historical evidence or reasons provided for why the series is over.  If this was a true bettor, he would've posted the record that the Heat are 8-0 in game 5's when they have a 3-1 lead in the series.  He also would've posted that the Pacers were 7-0 in games where they trail in the series over the last 2 years.  The last time they lost in a game where the trailed in a series was game 6 2012 against...the Heat.  His comment was posted in a thread dedicated to a Pacers bettor viewpoint in order to apparently rub it in the face of a Pacers fan...when all of us bettors are on the same team...to win against the books, not each other.

2.  "guess those off season moves to beat the heat not working".  Pacers played great against the Heat in the regular season and earned the number 1 seed and home court advantage.  If this was an actual factor in a bet, I would love to hear what the "off season moves" actually are and why they aren't working.  I know every single one of them, and I know why some are working and some aren't.  I would guess this person doesn't know any of them, and certainly doesn't know what matchups are working and what matchups aren't.  Know why Copeland and Turner aren't playing?  Real bettors do.  Know why Rashard Lewis is getting big minutes?  Real bettors do.

3.  "no way they come back from dwn 3-1".  Actually, there's lots of ways they can come back from dwn 3-1.  Is it possible?  Yes...is it likely?  No.  If you know these teams, you know the Pacers have a huge advantage inside...and PG and Lance can go off at anytime.  Before this series, the Pacers have played great on the road.  The Pacers have also beat the Heat at Miami several times over the Big 3 era.  Andersen, and Allen are banged up.  Wade plays better off of rest, but if Indiana wins tonight he doesn't get the big rest he needs.  But that would take research to know these things.

4.  "SERIES OVER...FINISHED...."  My favorite thing on this website...the ol' "caps" function.  If it's in caps, it must be so.  I was going to make a bet on the Pacers, but this gentleman made a statement in CAPS...so that means it's a 100% guarantee.  Forget the analysis, the writeup, the stats to back up the bet...as long as it's posted in CAPS...that means it's a sure thing.  If you have to convince yourself and others that your bet is a winner by being loud instead of factual...you might want to give it a second thought.

5.  Last thing I'll end with is the fact that this guy didn't look at trends with O/U, halves, quarters, etc.  There's lots of bets offered, lots of opportunities...I've been betting for a while and I don't remember looking at the books and seeing the option of betting "SERIES OVER...FINISHED" or "SERIES NOT OVER...NOT FINISHED JUST YET".

Made a play tonight on the first quarter (which won), and even though I'm a Pacers fan, and the Pacers are down 2-3 in the series...the bets in this thread are 3-2-1 for a slight profit in this series.

Bottom line is (and I apologize to this individual, but hopefully he learns something and makes a profit off of reading this) don't make the mistakes that were made in this statement if you're going to make a bet.  Do the proper research, ignore the emotion, and be able to defend the bet whether it wins or loses.  I've made so many horrible bets over the years it makes me sick...but I've learned from them, and I've ended up profiting in the long run.  Hope this helps someone, especially the gentlemen used in the example

Of course refereeing affects a game.  If a ref calls more charges than blocks, then the players will think about it when they drive to the hoop. And vice versa.  And if refs are inconsistent about it, then it makes a difference.

If PG constantly whined about bad calls it'd be one thing. But this is the first time I've heard him say something.

The same as always...refs don't go into the game with an outcome in mind.  They make the calls that they see...sometimes they seem to go against a certain team...sometimes they seem to go for a certain team. 

I thought that the Pacers looked more aggressive than the previous games, and earned the calls.  The last 2 games they didn't deserve the calls.  Lebron got in foul trouble...and if anybody thinks the refs did that on purpose...look at how many times Lebron has been in foul trouble in the past.  Never.  Tonight was rare.  If the refs really had an agenda to extend series, Lebron would have a long track record of being in foul trouble when the Heat were in close out games up 3-0 or 3-1.  But he doesn't.  Tonight the calls went against him...it happens.

I just think that if you go into a game thinking the refs have an agenda, you can find evidence of that while ignoring all the other calls.  If someone thinks the refs want the Heat to win, they will concentrate on those calls that support their pre-game thinking.  If they think the refs want the Pacers to win, the same thinking will happen.

Pacers fans (fan is short for fanatic by the way) here locally thought the refs cost us the game last time...but thought the refs were perfectly fair tonight.  I'm sure the Heat fans though the exact opposite.  As a bettor, I'm happy sticking to my game analysis of rotations, trends, and matchups.  Tonight I won a bet based on my research of how I thought this game would start, and not how the refs would call it.

I will say this:  Betting is all about making money.  If somebody is making money long-term based only on the predictions of reffing, I'd be interested.  However, what I see is guys saying, "this ref is 15-3 on the overs to start year", and what happens...everyone jumps on board only to go .500 the rest of the year.  But at the end of the year the record is 45-23 for that ref on the overs, but it took so long to notice the trend that regression to the mean sets in and record looks better than it actually was.  Nobody started the year predicting that ref was going to be a great "over ref".

Looking at the refs when Miami plays at home isn't great either.  When the Heat play at home the role players are jacked up, Wade and Lebron are pumped and they play faster and end up deserving more of the calls.  So looking at the refs record when Miami plays at home is worthless IMHO because any ref in that position would make the same calls, so I'm not sure how capping which refs are at the games makes a difference.

The most mind-boggling reffing stat is the O/U.  People actually think that refs go into the games hoping to hit the over or under on a game.  Clearly those refs affect the shooting percentage behind the arc...clearly those refs affect how the coaches do their matchups...clearly those refs allow the balls to bound in or out of the basket depending on what they want to happen.  It's the standard conspiracy guy...if you have a conspiracy in mind, you'll always be able to find something to support your theory, but completely ignore the facts that disprove it.

Anyway...that's my thoughts on the reffing.  And by the way...if Bosh hits the 3 at the end of the game to win the series...we don't hear anything about the reffing.

But I'm willing to hear more on the reffing from a betting perspective...I love the conversation...especially from someone like you that can exchange different points of view from mine in an intelligent manner. 

Again, the players with the most confidence and will-power won't let reffing bother them.  Lebron got in foul trouble tonight, and when he played he didn't change his style.  He played with confidence and strength, and they almost got the win. 

PG showed me a lot tonight.  I ripped him for complaining about he refs, but he played like a true superstar tonight to close out the game which is what I wanted to see from him.  It's part of the growing process, and that meant a lot to rebound from last game to play like he did this game.

Yes, it's the first time he's whined about the refs...but it needs to be the last.  Let Vogel or Bird go to bat for you.  Let the higher ups take the fine, and the press conference ripping the refs, but the locker room and the fans don't want to hear the superstar complain.  They need to hear the captain say that he didn't play well, and that it won't happen again and no matter what he's going to play better against a great opponent.  Keep the focus on the court.  No matter what happens in this series, I loved to see PG play great tonight after a regrettable press conference...and if you're a basketball fan you should be happy to see it as well.  I think it's a great sign for a guy taking another small step in his growth towards being a superstar, and the league needs guys like this to step up and carry the torch.

The calls against Lebron were horrible.  Just horrible.  The 3rd foul from a charge against PG was such a blatant block.   And I hate the Heat.

Indy had a 22-8 advantage from the FT line.  Sure, you could say that Indy was "more aggressive" but Miami looked like they were just as aggressive as they were in prior games. 

But personally, I'm glad Bosh missed the 3 because I think G6 will be an absolute Heat blowout.  Indy needed LBJ to completely disappear, and PG to have his best game of the playoffs and still barely won.  Refs will be friendlier to Miami in G6 and Indy seems mentally fragile. 

Agree that a little craziness helps. Meta world peace comes to mind.