PACERS THREAD FROM A LOCAL

PMI

The Pacers have gone from an enjoyable team to watch night in to night out...to a team that can win on Sunday, and then play a historically bad playoff game on Tuesday.  Its frustrating as a fan and as a bettor, however the OH system is going strong after a game 1 loss.

In Pacers fashion it wouldn't surprise me if they won tonight after that terrible performance Tuesday.  Just because it doesn't make sense.

I'm going to put a little bit on Pacers +4.5...and hope they close out tonight to get me the win on the series wager. 

God Alan I hope so man. One of these days I will have a stroke from all the commotion the Pacers have caused to my heart. I believe my family would have a good case against the Simons if I keel over and die. 

agreed, i have zero faith in the pacers right now.  betting them is like roulette.  i don't know how they can come back from 19 down in the 3rd q on the road and then return home for a closeout game and look like dog crap!  that was literally sickening to watch.  sticking with wiz to win series, no hedge for me.

...and after all the drama...the bad games...the mind-boggling performances...it still comes down to the Pacers and Heat in the East.

Heat-Pacers preview

It comes down to these two teams in the East as everyone thought it would at the beginning of the year…and this series will be as entertaining as it gets.  This series has star power, a clash of styles, legacies on the line, the future of the big 3, an up and coming team trying to break through, two legendary GM's, and inconsistency from both teams.  It's got all the makings of a fantastic series.  So here's the preview from my point of view.

Word of caution to bettors:  Don't put too much into the national media's coverage of the "implosion" of the Pacers.  They just made the Eastern Conference finals with home court advantage…which was the goal from the beginning of the season.  I heard Steven A Smith say that he thinks, "The Pacers don't deserve to be here".  Most of the time I enjoy the insight he has, and there's no arguing he is well connected, but to say a team who had the number 1 seed in the East doesn't deserve to be in the Eastern Conference finals is a joke.  Yes they've looked bad at times, yes they have some mind boggling performances…but it's easy to focus on how bad they've looked at times, and ignore the fact that they've played well on the road.  Make no mistake:  This is what the Pacers have been waiting for all season long.  I won't look too much at the Pacers previous performances as the mindset has changed from the previous series' to this one.  Is it hard to trust the Pacers?  I would argue not as hard as you would think.  What hurts is when you back the Pacers to win at home, and they go out and get killed and look terrible.  You kick yourself, and can't believe they did that…but that loss is the same as not covering the spread by a point at the end of the game.  Remove the emotion and look at the facts.  They won the series against Atlanta, they won the series against Washington, and they have lots of matchup advantages over Miami.  It's really easy to just jump to the conclusion that Miami will kill them, and it won't even be close…and there's a chance that can happen, but instead of just buying into the national media hype, and listening to what every average uneducated sports guy says…be smart and look at all factors when making bets on this series.

Momentum:  I can't give either team an advantage here.  Both teams closed out their series in good fashion.  The Pacers closing out on the road with a big run to end the game…the Heat closing out their rivals in 5 games…I don't see any team with more momentum.  I think most people would give Miami the edge, but I think for both these teams, the season starts right now.

Star Power:  Big advantage Miami.  Lebron is the best player in the world, and this series will be determined on  A. How he performs and  B.  How the Pacers decide to defend him.  Paul George can play with Lebron, but over the series he isn't going to out perform him.  My best guess is that Wade will give Miami a total of 4 great halves.  Maybe they are in the same game, maybe they are spread over different games…whatever the case, when Wade has these big halves, Miami will have a big advantage.  Right now for the Pacers, David West is the biggest star for this series.  Miami has trouble defending him, and West is playing fantastic basketball right now.  Lance and Bosh are the X factors.  Both can be inconsistent…both can disappear…and both can win games.  In the end, Miami has the best player in the world…and he will determine the series.

Front Court:  Big advantage Indiana.  If Roy plays big, and David West continues his excellent play, Miami will be in trouble.  It is possible that these two guys can go for 45 and 24 when they are playing well.  If they do that, and play good on defense it is going to be really tough for Miami to win.  I love what Anderson does for the Heat.  He does some banging around inside, and can occasionally give some energy and points, but he's overmatched.  His real value may actually be to get some fouls on West and Hibbert, and that's something West and Roy will have to be aware of.  They can't be in foul trouble and open up the lane to Lebron and Wade.  Obviously, it's tough to predict what Roy will do from game to game, but he's got to play great for Indiana to have a chance.

Back Court:  I'm including the wing players and guards in this.  Advantage Miami.  Lebron obviously gives Miami the advantage, but where Miami can really do some damage is with the defense on George Hill if the Pacers have Hill handle the ball.  Chalmers, and Cole can cause turnovers, and as we all know that's where Miami is at their best.  If Lance handles the ball, that is going to make Miami decide how to do their rotations and defense.  Lance is bigger than Chalmers and Cole, but he's so erratic I don't know if the Pacers can trust him to do that a majority of the game.  To me this is where the series will be decided.  The Pacers have to decide if they want to let Lebron go nuts, and only guard him one on one with Hibbert and West clogging the lane, or do they double Lebron and let the other guys score.  

IMHO, the way to beat the Heat is to not let the role players beat you.  Don't let Chalmers hit open threes.  Don't let Bosh shoot wide open jumpers.  Don't let Cole/Battier/Anderson/Haslem get these random baskets that add up at the end of the game.  When Lebron does everything, you can see the lack of movement on offense from everyone else, and they stop running.  The role players also get slower on defense.  When Lebron is passing and creating open shots, the role players are involved, and excited.  If I was Vogel, I would be ok with Lebron scoring 40+ every night as long as the other guys are held in check.  I would prevent the three point shooting, and hope Lebron shoots around 50% or under.  But that's just me.

Home Court Advantage:  I know the Pacers have home court advantage, but the Pacers have been better on the road this post-season than they have at home.  Miami can play good at home or on the road…it would surprise me if there were 2-3 road wins this season.  No advantage.

Health:  This late in the year, it looks like the Pacers are the healthiest team left in the playoffs, and that's a big advantage.  All the important pieces for Indiana are good to go.  For Miami, I have to believe Lebron is close to showing signs of fatigue.  I've never seen a guy have to do more for his team than Lebron has had to do this season.  If he isn't tired now, he will be after a series with the Pacers.  He will get bumped, and banged…and he's going to have to rebound, score and assist.  It's a lot to ask.  I'll be interested to see how he holds up towards the end of some of these games because he's not going to be able to sit on the bench for very long.  Wade of course is the mystery…is he healthy or not?  It's hard to say, but I think it's safe to say Wade won't be consistently contributing.  He doesn't have the explosion, and I think he's struggling with how to deal with it on the court.  There will be games where he has a big part of the outcome, but I don't think over a long series he will be a key factor.  Advantage Pacers.

Coaching:  I think the coaches have a lot in common.  I think they both get some unfair criticism.  Vogel has caught some heat for the Pacers struggles where it looks like the players are mostly to blame.  Spoelstra gets criticized for winning because he has Lebron (ridiculous).  But Spoelstra is better than people think, and so is Vogel.  I don't see an advantage here, but maybe a slight lean to Spoelstra.  I like his set plays coming out of timeouts better.

Bench:  This is a complete tossup because nobody knows how effective any of these benches will be from game to game.  I don't think the teams will be using their benches a whole lot in this series, but I think Scola and Mahinmi cause slightly more matchup problems for Miami than the Miami bench players cause for Indiana.  I also like how Watson has been playing, and sometimes he's better than Hill.  Slight advantage Indiana.

I see the price on the series is going up, and the Pacers are at +310 right now…I think if that price goes up it's worth putting a bit on the Pacers.  I don't see the value in Miami at -370 or worse because they don't have home court…Wade isn't an elite player…Lebron has a huge workload…and these teams went to 7 games last year.  If you're dead set on betting Miami, I might wait and see if the Pacers win game 1, and then see if you can get Miami at -200 or better.  I'm going to wait and see how high the Pacers price gets and then probably put a little bit on the Pacers.  

Prediction:  Pacers in 7

Setting up Spurs-Pacers in the Championship.  Spurs in 5.

Nice write-up, Alan, but you forgot to cap a huge component: officiating!

I'm not a believer in the officiating conspiracy.  I think it's too easy to blame officials when a bet doesn't go your way, and forget about the calls that go in your favor.  You can't predict when officials are going to miss calls, and when they will go against or for you.  I know a lot of people believe that the NBA refs have an agenda, but I have lots of knowledge on reffing, and thinking that one can cap a game based on how they think officials will call a game is a mistake.  The only agenda the refs have is to do a good enough job so they get asked to do more games.  The better job they do, they more games they get, the more money they make.  I don't consider it a predictable part of the series. 

Love the conversation...

I'll start off by saying I'll tell all of those exactly what I said. 

I feel like people focus too much on certain calls instead of the big picture, trends and in-game strategy and adjustments.  The Clippers lost this year because Chris Paul couldn't stop Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant is unstoppable right now, and DeAndre Jordan is an offensive liablity.  Not because of a call.  Even if we all agree the refs missed a call, I don't see how you could have possibly taken that into account when capping a game before it starts.  The Raptors lost this year because they were playing a better team with more playoff experience in how to close out games and series.  Nobody talks about officiating before a game.  They always talk about it after.  So I don't see how anyone can take officiating into account when capping games.  Does officiating matter?  Absolutely.  Can it affect the outcomes of games?  Absolutely.  But it is something that can't be predicted, and worrying about the officials either before or after games simply takes away from looking at the play on the court and why a certain team won or lost, and it prevents bettors from improving their capping skills.

When losing a bet, I'd rather look at if players played above or below their norm...what rotations did the coaches use...was their an injury, etc.  Therefore, I'll do the same before the games. 

Are you going to be taking any futures in this series?

Bb, you're wasting your time talking to these sports purists. They think the league is officiated without bias. They don't live in reality. 

FLOP city were out scored 17-3 in the last few minutes of Game 6 and they (and losing bettors) have the gall to blame the refs......are they biased at times sure, human at others (bad missed calls) sure, but the clippers and CP3 chocked period and lost to the much better team, get over it.

Love the Spurs as well...Durant and Westbrook are going to have to have 4 unbelievable games and that may not be enough. Spurs look like a buzz saw.

No chance that Indiana beats Miami in this series.  None.

The only calmesT aT The end of game 5 wiTh The Clippers was the no call on the foul on the fast break after Chris Paul turn the ball over. giving the ball to the Clippers even though we saw go out on the Clippers would have been the bad call. the way it was sort it out with the way it should have happened. And All the Clippers flop All over the plAce on jumpshot lAyups And everything so then it created problems for the officials to know when they're flopping around they actually get foiled when it comes down to the time that it matters

So much for talk to test.

great stuff alangrrbs,i really enjoyed that,cheers!!!

LMAO...it took me several times reading that to realize what happened.  Hilarious