Quote Originally Posted by SiMbEcK11:
Since you are into philosophy and have made a pretty intelligent post let me dispute both of these points.
1) Atlanta has a better winning % at home this season and in my opinion is by no means a better road team than home team. The fact that you state they are a better road team can only be opinion based off the fact I disputed your claim with a statistic. This would mean there is in fact no theoretical edge to this wager and your claim that there is was solely opinion based (phenom) and has no actual truth to it metaphysically (knowledge based). Now that I have disputed the claim that there is a theoretical edge to taking Atlanta +6.5 because they are indeed not a better road team than home team let me further support my argument.
You also claimed New York is a worse home team than road team which is also not true. New York also has a better winning % at home this season.
This game is the last of a 5 game trip for Atlanta in which 3 out of 4 of the road games they scored below 80 points with Joe Johnson.
Claiming that gaining a theoretical edge on a wager is "quintessential" to your capping method does have some merit to it. Although in reality, (metaphysical, outside our bodies and knowledge based) based off your claim that you have a theoretical edge in taking the Hawks +6.5 because they and the Knicks are both better road teams than home teams is not true. You in fact have no theoretical edge in taking the Hawks +6.5 because this season the Hawks are 9-5 (64%) at home and 10-8 (55%) on the road. While the Knicks are 9-9 (50%) at home and 7-8 (46%) on the road.
If you were actually going to use what you claim is your "theoretical advantage and quintessential method" in betting on this game you would have taken the Knicks -6.5 because in reality, the Hawks play worse on the road than they do at home.
On a side note: where do you expect Atlanta to get its offense from tonight? Theres no way they can keep pace with the Knicks without Joe Johnson. Their offense has been terrible on this current road trip and without Joe Johnson I think it only gets more difficult tonight.
GL with your plays
My home/road splits are FAR more complex that win %.. so you are making a relative dispute. You can find several relative statistics that can make an argument that the Hawks are better at home than away. My method of evaluating home/road play is a power ranking system that weighs strength of opponent, ATS performance, SU performance, as well as the 4-factors of efficient basketball.
My power ranking as NOTHING to do with win %. I deal in beating spreads not predicting SU winners no matter the spread, it would be rudimentary to include win % into my evaluation.
Joe Johnson has scored 20 or more points once out of the Hawks last ten games and is shooting the lowest FG% of his career (42.5%). This line has been adjusted 3 points to account for Joe Johnson, when his (+/-) analysis can only justify a 2-point adjustment. That means we are gaining 1-point on Joe Johnson's absence.
If you want to look at it from a "where will Atlanta get there points?" perspective, which has no basis in player analysis because you have to account defensive boost/loss and who is taking the shots that Joe would have gotten. Josh Smith will get more shots and those shots will be coming from higher % locations (Smith is 3% more efficient than Johnson).
Also, Tracy McGrady, who has been complaining about not getting his fair amount of run will get a big boost in playing time and he will be looking to impress. I would said in a spot start with the hunger for playing time that McGrady has, he will play just as well or better than Johnson would have.
I have been doing this for a long time, all of the info I include in my write-ups is valid and conveyed as well as possible. I do make occasional mistakes and I accept those if they come to light. However, there are no mistakes in these write-ups.
Established in 1995,
BOL
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