NBA Totals - Wednesday 3-14-12

YTD (Overall): 48-38 / 55.8% (+17.6)

4 Unit Bets: (3-1)

3 Unit Bets: (2-3)

2 Unit Bets: (16-9)

1 Unit Bets: (27-23)

Yesterday's Thread: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101295176

Today's Lines / Mine (Actual):

Indiana vs. Philadelphia - 184.5 (185.0)

New Jersey vs. Toronto - 192.3 (NL)

New York vs. Portland - 196.6 (200.0)

Milwaukee vs. Cleveland - 201.7 (204.0)

New Orleans vs. LA Lakers - 191.8 (180.0)

Houston vs. Charlotte - 193.7 (NL)

San Antonio vs. Orlando - 197.9 (NL)

Chicago vs. Miami - 191.3 (191.0)

Sacramento vs. Detroit - 196.3 (198.0)

Phoenix vs. Utah - 200.3 (197.5)

LA Clippers vs. Atlanta - 194.4 (184.5)

Golden State vs. Boston - 190.2 (187.0)

Any thoughts? I like the LAL/NO & LAC/ATL OVERS, as my numbers hint to above. I will look into these further; if anyone else has any insight on them, please share.

Taking all season-long averages into account, I have this game at approximately 185.0. The figures that drove this number up to what you see above are the recent scoring trends from both teams. Griffin has looked tired, I agree, but tonight they'll be on one day's rest. Despite the sluggishness of the Clippers, since the All-Star break, they've been averaging 97.8 PPG on offense and giving up 98.7 on defense. Atlanta has also been around 97 PPG since the break and seem to be one of many teams regressing defensively. They've been giving up, on average, 94.6 PPG on defense since the ASB, and more specifically, 97.6 on the first five games of this road trip.

That's why my numbers have been driven up. Looking at trends and things, however, it would suggest an under play. I think one thing these averages don't show is that neither team scores on a consistant basis. These averages are high, but that's because they'll score 110 one game, then 85 the next; there's no consistancy. I would imagine Atlanta being pretty tired after last night's game, too.

Quote Originally Posted by SmashSports999:

I wanna take this over also im just weary since this play has burned me a couple times..in a row..be careful if the lines moves down late

I'm definitely going to continue working on my patience. I probably won't post any official plays until later this afternoon/evening.

I'm still looking closer at trends. LAL have been a low scoring bunch, but the second half of the season, they've been playing relatively no defense. The offense has stepped up though, that's for sure. The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight road games for the Lakers, including four straight games overall (three road, one home). The one B2B road game they've played since the All-Star break went over by over 13 points. The thing that worries me about the total in the LAL/NO game, along with your mention about a mega-trade happening at any moment, is whether or not New Orleans can score any points.

The Hawks are playing their sixth straight road game and have surpassed 100 points in two straight. IMO, the Clippers will be refreshed and ready to play tonight. Their last two home games have gone under, but both were bad spots for them: the first was their first home game back after a six game road trip (which is a notoriously bad spot) and the B2B was the next night against the Celtics, who have been a different team since the break. So yes, I think the Clippers are ready to play tonight, but that also means them giving up their average of 96 PPG at home to an Atlanta team that has averaged 97 PPG on the second (and third) legs of B2B(2B) games.

Quote Originally Posted by Statigician:

I'm going to the Clippers game. I think over 184.5 is better than -7. I'm hoping for not a lot of defense.

I wouldn't bet LAC (-7) tonight with someone else's money. That's a large number against a Hawks team that's 10-1 ATS on the second leg of a B2B. Not to mention that T-Brothers, who has away teams hitting at 2-1 ATS clip (24-11 YTD), is the head ref for this game.

fadethisnoob - accepted.

blue & SportsFreak - GL tonight.

Thanks for the update - I've been keeping an eye on both lines today and have noticed both of them. As I suggested the other day, just because I'm able to gather a bunch of information that suggests the side that my variance is on is the "right" play doesn't mean that it will be the final play. As you've said, if the public continues on both sides with little-to-no line movement, the unders will be the plays. Thanks for the heads up.

Quote Originally Posted by Redbull88:

interesting system..  no action for me but will be watching the games..  good luck either way!!  

If you look at my notes towards the beginning of yesterday's thread, it revealed a pretty interesting pattern. In my last 10 days (approximately 23 plays), plays in which my numbers system had gone WITH a large public favorite, plays were 1-8. All other plays (either against the public or less than 60% in favor of my action) were 9-3. I'm going to try and exploit those numbers. If my system is saying there's a variance, it doesn't necessarily mean my play should be in the direction of the difference. I'm trying to play closer attention to not only public action, but also trends and other information that would suggest one way or the other.

vegasinsider.com and sportsinsights.com are the sites that I use. Unless you're willing to pay fo a service, the numbers will be slightly delayed. These numbers also don't always reflect exactly what's going down in all the books; they just gather information from several sources and put it together. I do believe it gives a pretty realistic look, although you're best to wait til close to game time to consider them in your wagers. The numbers here on Covers only relate to the contests and picks by members; don't confuse them with actual betting figures from books.

Makes sense..   totally agree with going against the public in most cases...  good luck and thanks for the research!!

FINAL PLAYS:

New Orleans vs. LA Lakers OVER 180.5 (2 units)

LA Clippers vs. Atlanta OVER 184.5 (2 units)