NBA Totals - Thursday 2-23-12

seeing your post pop up is like finding gold on covers.

on a serious note though always checking your threads for good info on totals.

thanks for posting and the research you put into it.

I think it's just natural movement for the line; I will probably put some more on it if it gets much higher. I'm showing a 64/36 split in favor of the over, so it makes sense the line would go up just as a method to get the bets as close to 50/50 as possible.

I think the emotion that will go into this game will bring the total down. You're going to have two overly excited teams and I think that will lead to mistakes and players trying to make plays that they shouldn't be trying to make. I think this will lead to turnovers and wasted possessions.

I try to get as much info as I can, that's for sure. I've been using this for over 50 games now and I think it's becoming more reliable every day I stay above 55% on the picks.

I don't necessarily have a projected final score; I don't think Atlanta will get above 90 points, but I do think Orlando, who has been playing much better lately, will be able to beat what has been a pretty good defense so far. If I had to guess, I would estimate total of 98-83... these are two teams on completely different paths.

Quote Originally Posted by Unstoppable Force:

If you waited another hour you would have got it at 202..

I honestly thought this would open at around like 186.5, like you said 188.9  

199?..Now it's up to 202.. I loveeeeeeeee UNDER

Yep, that's what I'm seeing. I'm terrible at guessing what is going to happen w/ lines. I thought to myself "there's no way this is going above 200," but obviously I was wrong. I may add more to my bet if it's still there later this afternoon.

Here is a breakdown of why I'm so keep on the Miami/NYK under:

Looking at just the scoring totals that I average together, the line sits at 191.6. After factoring in all of the different offensive and defensive match-ups that I consider, the line I have for the game goes down to 179.6. After I bring in some of the pace variables and the refs for the game, it brings the line up to 188.9, which I have listed above. I think both of these teams, Miami especially, have been feasting on far, far, far inferior teams. Miami will be at the top of their game tonight, especially defensively. I can't imagine one person more sick of hearing about Lin-sanity than LeBron (well, maybe Kobe); I wouldn't be surprised to see a final along the lines of 105-85.

Quote Originally Posted by Ron_Burgundy:

I have been following your plays for a while.  I wanted to say thanks for posting.

Stay Classy rlawson!

You're welcome. Milk is always a bad choice.

Yeah, that I knew. I'm just thinking that it's got to be good to be home, you know? They just got done with a five game road trip and let things spiral out of control after getting dominated by 20 points in Portland. Then Johnson gets hurt and they lose by double digits to the Bulls and Knicks. If finally getting back home doesn't get these guys going I don't know what will. However, they are obviously an immature team and it's very easy to think they've already cashed in the first half of the season and are looking forward to the break. That mentality is SO Atlanta.

Turtle