YTD (NBA): 74-42-3 ATS (BIG PLAY!!!: 15-6 ATS)
Hoping everyone had a better weekend than I did. Both financially as well as for my own sanity. Went through a move from hell and then posted a few NFL games that I didn't do so great on. Luckily I just cut bait vs. coming back for more in the PM session. Week 18 is always tough but I'm hoping if people tailed they did so with those handicappers who got into the winners circle.
Tonight is a pretty nice slate in the NBA, I see a lot of UNDERS this evening and strong trends pointing to them. Also quite a few changes to starting lineups so definitely keep tabs on that as well. Here is what I am backing:
OVER 221 (PHX/PHI): Finally, the Suns have made some lineup changes and most specifically to the overrated Bradley Beal, who heads to the bench vs. starting. I think this allows the Suns to play more freely and not have Beal launch shots every time he gets the ball, which has really hurt them this year as he has not been shooting well from the filed. The Suns usually play the Sixers tough, if not win outright, but I'll back the over in this matchup as the Suns score much more on the road. I realize Embiid is not playing tonight but I still think the game gets over this total.
INDIANA (-11): This game has blowout written all over it. With so many players missing for Brooklyn I think DeAngelo Russel ends up being their only real playmaker. Add to that the Pacers are 20-8 ATS in the last 28 played in Brooklyn, and I'm ok dropping this many points.
UNDER 208 (ORL/NYK): The total has gone UNDER in 10 of New York’s last 13 games when playing at home against Orlando. Add to that is only 8-7 going over the Total at home, and this is a very strong play. Orlando has very few scorers tonight but they have been pretty good covering the spread in the matchups at MSG.
MINNESOTA (-2.5)...BIG PLAY!!!: Should be a relatively low scoring game given the Clippers are just 5-11-1 going OVER on the road while Minnesota is 8-8. But what really stands out is that the Wolves are an impressive 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS vs. LAC in the past 10, though 5 of the past 6 played in Minnesota have gone under the number.
OVER 218 (MIA/SAC)...BIG PLAY!!!:. Super low total given the pieces that are missing but also I think a bit of an overreaction. These teams have gone OVER in 12 of the last 16 they have played in Sacramento and with the Kings having played last night, I think defense will be at a premium here.
Lots of action and two big plays tonight which I really do like so hoping to start the week off right. Sink or swim. As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...
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