NBA picks, Sunday, December 26, 2010

Yesterday: 1-1, -1.27 units
YTD: 54-47-1, +3.77 units

It's a long season, in a little bit of a slow patch but that's to be expected when you are coming off something ridiculous like a 13-1 run.

1. Phoenix Suns ML -101 (2.02 to win 2) -- great, great spot in the schedule for Phoenix. Sure, they may still have some kinks to work out with Gortat and Pietrus (and there is still no Vince Carter) but this is the exact type of spot where backing PHX makes sense against an inconsistent Clippers squad. PHX is coming off two days rest with another two days off after this game -- perfect spot to get focused and pick up an easy, much needed win for Phoenix. Add in that they lost a tough game to the Heat last time they played (where Nash was not aggressive at all) and I wouldn't be surprised to see Nash come out very aggressive in shooting the ball seeing as he only had 1 FG attempt against MIA. For trend bettors, PHX is 12-5 ATS in last 17 playing on two days rest (go PHX training squad!) while LAC is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 playing on three days rest. That's a little bit of an indictment of a coaching squad if you ask me, in those three days rest situations your team should be absolutely at its peak in terms of preparation and performance. LAC is 1-8 ATS in last 9 as a home favorite -- they don't handle expectations well, you could say. Nash and company also seem to play well against the Clippers for some reason as they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 in this matchup. I think UNDER could be a good play as well given that PHX hasn't been able to hit open jump shots really in a month or so and their defense should improve with the Gortat + Lopez combo (I kinda want to see Gentry play them together and see what happens).

Looking over the rest of the card but wanted to lock this one in...

happy to be on the same side Kap, GL to u and happy holidays

Oh, and the last time that PHX and LAC went H2H this year, PHX won by eight and that was with Ryan Gomes going 8-13 from the field, 3-4 from 3 for 20 points and Brian Cook hitting 4-5 from three and chipping in 16 points. I wonder if we'll see Baron Davis in his "I don't give a f***" form today

"The Suns have won 9 straight games versus the Clippers, the last seven by an average of over 20 points"

From my favorite Suns blog Bright Side of the Sun

Fun little link: League Leaders in Dunks

I can't believe I'm seriously considering making a ML dog play on a team that is 1-17 on the road... am I crazy?

I just want lots of buckets in this game. Good luck kap...

Fuck yea.  I love doing my own analysis, writing up my thoughts, then finding a thread from a capper I respect on covers (which is very rare) and find they are on the same play!  I feel like actually increasing it just a tad but will refrain and continue to use money management.  Like you always say its a marathon not a spring right KP.  Ok I will go back and read your thoughts on the game now, I just got exited and posted first :)  Good luck to us my friend.

  

I'm a chicken...

2. Minnesota Timberwolves +2 (-102), 1.53 to win 1.5 -- Mo Williams talking about his groin injury can't be good for the Cavs although they have been experiencing a rejuvenated Jamison from his early season slump. To me, this play comes down to two teams going in completely different directions. Things have been dire for CLE and will continue to be so the entire year, this is somewhat a "lost" season already for them. They'll occasionally compete but will they really be "up" to play a game against the "lowly" Timberwolves? On the other hand, MIN is an improving squad who has one of my favorite players in the league and one of the most enjoyable guys to watch for someone who has played basketball and appreciates the little things that don't always show up in box scores. MIN has been playing competitive ball against good competition recently while CLE has been in a tailspin, losing games not just be a few but by a lot. Seems like they mentally check out when the other team throws haymakers at them while MIN has the will to fight back and not roll over. MIN has seen CHI, GSW, PHX, POR, DEN, LAC, and UTAH in their 7 games since their last win (with 6 of those on the road) so you know they have to be happy to see a team like CLE coming up on the schedule. Lots of trends against CLE in this spot.

Wow....seriously.....read my writeup KP, we have the exact same feel on the Suns.  I think I have to increase my wager, even by a unit.  Even if the Clippers win which is perfectly plausible, it is worth it after reading this.  Excellent writeup. 

3. Detroit Pistons +4.5 (-109), 1.09 to win 1 -- I'm holding my nose making this pick as I really don't enjoy watching DET at all. I don't know why but DET is just one of those teams I kinda wrote off earlier in the year because their roster is just an absolute mess. Dumars does not get enough shit for the Gordon/Villanueva signings, shipping off Billups cause he thought Stuckey was his PG, etc. He had a great run but has been making a lot of mistakes as a GM. Back to the game though (just had to get that off my chest). If you believe at all in schedule handicapping, this is a spot where you have to back DET (although a combination of the fact that I don't trust them really and I have great respect for CHI as a team, they could be very dangerous once healthy) so only a single unit play. CHI has to fly 500 miles after playing on Christmas in NYC off an early morning loss, what a tough spot in the schedule. DET on the other hand, is coming off of 3 days rest. DET is in such a nice part of their schedule that this is only their 5th game in 15 days, that's virtually unheard of and you will get a surefire good effort from DET at home here. Last time these teams played was early in the year in CHI and DET was actually leading that game going into the 4th quarter and then got a massive 9 points in the fourth quarter to lose by 10, so don't think that this was an easy win for CHI, they had to claw for that victory. CHI is a surprising 4-1 ATS in their last 5 on zero days rest, which does give me some pause, but this is a tougher B2B spot if you ask me given that CHI played in the morning on Christmas day. NBA players are rhythm players and while they're used to B2Bs during the evening, doing the front end in the morning can screw up routines and throw guys off (especially when the B2B has both games on the road.) DET beat a decent ATL team at home 3 games ago so its not like they can't do it against good Eastern Conference competition. There are a ton of CHI trends here in this spot so tread lightly, including the awesome CHI is 16-4-1 ATS in last 21 following a SU loss (that's just fantastic). Ultimately I think that DET either wins this game outright or keeps it a 1 possession game till the end, the schedule trumps the trends.

I'll check that out in a bit mak, I wanted to cap everything and get my plays in tabula rosa and then check everyone else to see what they are on. I always feel more confident that way that I am really playing what I like and not letting other people's opinions effect my outlook of a game. I think capping like that in a vacuum has definite positives (although it really doesn't help you give any insight for what the smart cappers you respect think -- little bit of a double edged sword)

Lean NOH but probably won't make a play on it...

Interesting fact: SAS has been favored by more than 11 points this season 3 times, all at home, and are 0-3 ATS in those games (although they were to the far superior MEM, LAC, and MIN teams -- who are all far better than WAS is).

In addition, WAS has been an 11 point or higher underdog 5 times this year with 4 of those on the road -- they lost their first 2 situations like this ATS but have won their last 3 in a row ATS

Wow, this LAC/PHX game is not starting well for PHX backers, I hope they don't check out here mentally... LAC might get a little over-confident given their 1Q performance, we've seen plenty of team blow massive 1Q leads.

4. Phoenix Suns/Los Angeles Clippers (2H) OVER 102.5 (-110), 2.75 to win 2

Supposed to be "2.75 to win 2.5"

in typical Clip fashion...they now cant throw it in ocean

u know the history of clips in 2H man...hope they pull it out for u and go against past history and score here

1. Phoenix Suns ML -101 (2.02 to win 2)
2. Minnesota Timberwolves +2 (-102), 1.53 to win 1.5
3. Detroit Pistons +4.5 (-109), 1.09 to win 1
4. Phoenix Suns/Los Angeles Clippers (2H) OVER 102.5 (-110), 2.75 to win 2.5



Tough loss in the PHX game -- if they can hit a three in the end there instead of turning it over by Pietrus then the OVER definitely would have hit. Back to negative YTD units with 2 pending. Help!

1. Phoenix Suns ML -101 (2.02 to win 2)
2. Minnesota Timberwolves +2 (-102), 1.53 to win 1.5
3. Detroit Pistons +4.5 (-109), 1.09 to win 1
4. Phoenix Suns/Los Angeles Clippers (2H) OVER 102.5 (-110), 2.75 to win 2.5

Sunday: 2-2, -2.27 units
YTD: 56-49-1, +1.50 units