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NBA FRI 022009 early thoughts - value hunting

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Posted: #26
Although I agree with thinking this game goes over... There is not much of a margin of error. 

I still like the overs, but you got to think the line is inflated 4-6 points based on the coaching change, and an additional 4-6 for the last two games.

Question is... Is it worth the gamble tonight, or a pass/reduced amount?
 
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Posted: #27
no way this game goes under.  Over is the only play....
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by Gambleholic:

Although I agree with thinking this game goes over... There is not much of a margin of error. 

I still like the overs, but you got to think the line is inflated 4-6 points based on the coaching change, and an additional 4-6 for the last two games.

Question is... Is it worth the gamble tonight, or a pass/reduced amount?


Okay... maybe more like 7-10 points a piece...
 
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Posted: #29
I'm looking at Washington +7.5 and something on the Wizards ML.

New Jersey came out of the break with a blowout loss to Houston and I think Washington is feeling good after their win over Minny. It could happen!  
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by rpwd:

no way this game goes under.  Over is the only play....

I am curious when people use words like these...not picking on you...you were just the latest to post this.  

Are you saying the OVER is a LOCK?  
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by BigTime54:

I'm looking at Washington +7.5 and something on the Wizards ML.

New Jersey came out of the break with a blowout loss to Houston and I think Washington is feeling good after their win over Minny. It could happen!  

I'm not sure if I'm ready to jump on the WAS bandwagon just yet.  I know NJ is bad but as bad as WAS?  GL with your play 
 
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Posted: #32
The one thing that must be remembered is that those casino's in Vegas didn't get built by themself. The o/u line is set for a reason, and most of the time, most people have a mindset to take the over for all the reasons noted in this thread. Not saying the Phx/OKC game won't go over, and I'm sure the line will climb higher thru the day. I agree w/Gambleholic - the under, or even passing would be the way to go on this.  
 
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Posted: #33
 
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Posted: #34
OKC HAS SCORED IN THERE LAST FIVE GAME    118   113  102  116  AND 98 AGAINST  N-ORLEANS. WHAT WILL THEY PUT UP AGAINST A TEAM THAT PLAYS NO  D AND WANTS TO RUN AND GUN 
 
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Posted: #35
Hey guys...looks like we beat this OKC/PHO total to death.  It's obvious the majority of you guys are on the over and I can respect that.  Line has dropped to 231.


How about value with these UNDERS?  Haven't finished capping 'em yet but the lines jumped at me.

Sacramento at Memphis U206
Denver at Chicago U209
New Orleans at L.A. Lakers U207

I'll throw out bits and pieces of my capping notes as I do them if I have some time later.

Good luck to all.  It's us against the books NOT against each other.  I respect all your opinions.  That's how I learn.  Thanks for the input.

 
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Posted: #36
the line may have dropped also because amare is out. it should be a lot harder for the suns to score that many tonight without him
 
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Posted: #37
was that great info last night from espiegel or what?  he took a bashing last night but he was right on the money.  there were a few believers that jumped on OKC +10.  I love it.  
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by chump:

I played the under 233 as soon as it came out ... then I read that Stoudemire is out with an eye injury ... bad break for him but certainly a plus for an under play !!!  
 
Sleep well y'all !!!

Chump, always happy to be on the same side with you pal.  Keep up the great work.  How'd you make out at the Poker Tourney last weekend?  
 
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Posted: #39

Sacramento at Memphis @206

This season:

Both totals went over this year but still Under the current number

O/U 4-4 when MEM is home and total is 200+

O/U is 8-2 when MEM is home fav

Kings road trends nothing to note.

 

Statistically:

 

All models:

Regression (both teams play to expectations)

Weighted (Home and Away stats control)

Exponential smoothing (What have you done for me lately)

 

signaling totals under 200.

 

Any situational cappers with some insight?

 

 

 
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Posted: #40
Ax, GL man....im going with the under too...lets get it
 
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Posted: #41
Thanks Mad_S...already noted all your props for today!  BOL 
 
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Posted: #42
It seems like today is looking like a overwhelming Under day!!! It is due.  There has been many overwhelming over days lately, except last night of course.  I like under PHO/OKC really like under LAL/NO.  I need a good day I'm tired of .500 ball and making donations to the bookie.
 
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Posted: #43
Denver at Chicago @209

this one was ugly to cap.  One trend points this way...the next pointed the other and so on and so on.  The stats didn't help either.  

This game's capping notes are already filed in the cylindrical container next to my desk.
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by offyspicks:

It seems like today is looking like a overwhelming Under day!!! It is due.  There has been many overwhelming over days lately, except last night of course.  I like under PHO/OKC really like under LAL/NO.  I need a good day I'm tired of .500 ball and making donations to the bookie.

I'm getting ready to finish capping the NO/LAL game.  I'm leaning under myself.  The only play I've made so far was the OKC/PHO under last night.  Of course nothing is a lock but I like my chances.  GL  
 
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Posted: #45
Good Afternoon AX ...  two other "under plays" to look at for tonight ... Dallas / Houston and Atlanta / Portland .
 
Came in 17th out of 240 in last weekends poker tourney ... made a few bucks but one needs to make the final table to claim victory ...  big snow storm expected here in Michigan this weekend so no poker for me !!!
 
Will be anxious to see outcome of tonight's Phoenix / OKC game ... so many are drinking the CoolAid on the total going over 240 ... it's not going to happen !!!
 
Good Luck with your plays ... have a profitable weekend !!!
 
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Posted: #46
Greetings there Chump!  I'm confident you'll find other ways to make money this weekend.

I capped those two games you mentioned and I have to say you've got a great set of eyes!  I like the ATL/POR under more so than the DAL/HOU but both offer some value.  I'm going to watch both lines closely since I got in late in the game.  I'm still on the fence with NO/LAL but I like the number moving up.  I'll wait til tipoff to make an under play if any.  

As far as the OKC/PHO game, I heard some buzzing last night but it wasn't enough to share.  Some guy decided to share and he absolutely got bashed all night.  That's the only problem with this site, you'd like to share info but can't because people go off the deep end.  I look at some of these guys' record and I swear their capping consist of Heads or Tails.  

I'll be in Vegas around the 11th if all goes as planned.  Wish I could be there to kickoff the NCAA's but you know I am lost when it comes to CBB.  Let me know if you're going to be around...love to pick your brain about the upcoming MLB season.

BOL with your card tonight pal 
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:

LOL...yeah, it's a rhetorical question.  

This number is based off the last 2 games vs. LAC and if you compare the P.A. of OKC and LAC, there's only  a diff of .2

103.3 and 103.5 respectively.  A safe assumption is that if PHO can score 140 b2b vs. LAC, they can do the same with OKC.

That's a huge leap for me.  Still capping and looking at the wole board but I'm not sold on PHO scoring 140 on OKC.

Thoughts anyone?

 

were you sold on gonz. giving more than 35 points in college ball last night? believe it it can happen with high scoring.

 
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Posted: #48
I'll be the first to admit I know nothing about college BB.  It's no big secret here.

On that note, I'm having a hard time finding an NBA team scoring 140+ 3 games in a row or 130?  Oddly enough, the Suns have score 120+ 4 games in row back in 2005.

If someone can point me to that data, I thank you in advance.
 
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Posted: #49
AX ... if the Phoenix / OKC game goes over the cockroaches will come out of the woodwork tonight ripping our respective asses ... a factor with Stounamire getting hit in the eye and being lost for the season ...... fellow team mates will tend to have a meeting with themselves and conclude that they are going to play a bit conservatively because they don't want to lose an eye or an ankle ... they are far less apt to go down the lane and draw a foul but put up a jumper  ...  far less apt to dive on a ball to save a possession ... all this might add up to a few under plays for Phoenix until they regain their thoughts of being invisible !!!
 
GOOD LUCK !!!
 
 
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Posted: #50
LOL 

I think you probably feel the same way..."I don't care"

If we lose this play, that's a HUGE if, what are you? 25 games over .500 with your posted PODs.  We've both posted about 80+ PODs this season and have done quite well.  When the UNDER hits, I know I'm NOT doing any bashing.  Just another game to me.
 
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