Posted:
#351
You guys do know the books play games?
NBA Double Over System - Year Long Thread
Posted:
#358
Quote Originally Posted by arakias:
@race444 Yeah, going to have to tune him out. He seemed decent at first but his posts seem overwhelmingly negative at this point.
@race444 Yeah, going to have to tune him out. He seemed decent at first but his posts seem overwhelmingly negative at this point.
LOL arakias
I am decent...and I won't bother you guys anymore.
And I'm happy when you all win, and I tailed a few times (Ws and Ls), but it seems like just using that day's O/U numbers could easily be tweaked a bit with teams on B2Bs, teams maybe averaging 120 or more 3 straight (for example), highest vs lowest scoring teams records, etc, etc. Whatever.
GL 
Posted:
#359
race444
Trying to track O/U line movement on a daily basis? I doubt you do that, race. Maybe for the 5 or 6 games with O/Us in the 230s and 240s.
I read your posts where you say "oh shit, line just went from 232 to 232.5". Wow
I'm talking about keeping track of all the games played, who's home, who's away...
I just spent maybe a half hour a few days ago looking at one of the bottom 10 teams in scoring...saw they went 1-7 there last 8 when they were on B2B and because they don't score a lot they obviously brought down the total points in those games they went 1-7.
Those are the kind of things i was talking about - not the O/U went from 232 to 232.5
So good luck...hope you hit a lot of 2Xers and 5Xers, too.
Cheers
Posted:
#360
Quote Originally Posted by arakias:
@DB51daBEARS Weird, you disappeared the day we hit a huge multiteam parlay and a 12x two teamer and come back the first day we might lose again. Convenient. Welcome back ;)
@DB51daBEARS Weird, you disappeared the day we hit a huge multiteam parlay and a 12x two teamer and come back the first day we might lose again. Convenient. Welcome back ;)
I didn't disappear when you hit, arakias...I was only posting a couple of thoughts about your system, besides the strict "highest O/U numbers for that day".
My interest isn't in trolling anybody, like some people we all see like to do.
I posted "bookies play games" when your buddy was all jacked up about the line going from 232 to 232.5
K...all the best
Posted:
#362
@DB51daBEARS
You're absolutely 100% right I don't track line movements on a daily basis. The whole point of this system is to not do that.
If I'm saying Oh shit, it's not cause I'm like oh my god it's .5 points, it's because of the closing line and varying tip off times.
It's a problem with the system and back checking, similar to survivor bias. Back checking doesn't separate closing line and various tip off times.
Dude, you're too smart for me and this thread.
Posted:
#363
@SPark1
This type of comment is what I don't understand. Do the research. Go back 10 years. See how it would've gone. It's time to stop at 7 is such an asinine comment to make when the system works going to 8.
Like every other person who has bashed this system, do the research. Make the spreadsheets. Do JUST 5 YEARS. Then come tell me it's not profitable.
System Extraordinaire.
Posted:
#364
@arakias
Tier systems aren't my thing but more power to you. 95% of covers won't be able to bet 8x their initial bet because we're all degens, let alone get to the 8th tier. I'm guessing 50% are using local bookies not casinos too so the average $100 better won't be able to place a $2500 bet should they lose 7 in a row in a 8 tier system.
It's all probabilities
Posted:
#365
All the info is free out there to test.
The only problem is what I eluded to above, back data assumes all games start at the same time.
The worst is weekend games when there's an early East Coast game and a late West Coast game, they are around the same line and are within the qualifiers.
Which is why I freak out when a line changes after other games have started and vice versa. Could mean a Game 8 loss down the line when it should have been a Game 7 win.
I don't care about the number or why the number is moving.
hedging
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