NBA 2008-09, Week 2 thread...

Great call on PHX last night.  I am looking forward to Sunday's bet.

 

 

Bet:

This bet is currently plus-juice at Pinny...

Level 1 -- Golden State/Sacramento over 54, 1Q, laying $275 to win $250 -- The Kings have suddenly become a stone Over team the last 4 games and Golden State, well, it doesn't matter who is hurt, who got traded, they are going with their wild up-tempo style...The Warriors are just 1-2 to the over in the 1Q on the Road, but went Over at MEMP in the 1Q their last Road game (3 games ago) and have gone Over in the 1Q 3 straight games now and 4-of-6 this season...Only reason I am not betting the Over for the game is because if it is close, GS has a propensity to play low-scoring 4Q's on the Road, although SAC did not play a slow 4Q at Home their last time out...I already know the pace will be there for an Over in the 1Q, we just need the shots to fall...GS has averaged 24 shots and 6 FTs in the 1Q this year (26 shots and 4 FTs in the 1Q the last 3 games) and they played MEMP twice...SAC has averaged 23 shots and 5 FTs their 2 Home games in the 1Q and MEMP was one of those games...

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Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
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Bets record:
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Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 6-6, -$150
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Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
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Sides: 47-43-2
#1 picks: 8-5

Totals: 45-47
#1 picks: 1-12
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Day 14:

So tempted to bet Memphis tonight as PHOE is playing their first home game after a 4-of-5 road trip and this young MEMP team is playing fairly well to this point with a 3-4 record SU and a 4-3 ATS record...Their 3 ATS losses were by extremely narrow margins, losing by 10 last night at Denver (getting 8.5), losing by 10 at CHI (getting 8) and losing by 5 at SAC (while getting 3), and SAC has blown out their other 2 home opponents...PHOE killed MEMP at home last year by 21 and they won both games at MEMP by 14...Different teams this year...

#1 totals for me almost laughable right now...I can shake my head at it without worrying about it only because I am not betting them...Helps to have 1Q and 1H bet options...I watch a lot of GS games and the color announcer made a great point a few games ago when he said this GS team is very young and will struggle shooting in opponents' arenas...Also being young, the energy of the Oracle Arena crowd helps them for their home games...This is why I took the Over in the 1Q at SAC yesterday...There is a website that has 1Q, 2Q, 3Q & 4Q breakdowns for shots and FTs made and taken per Quarter and I can see the pace of games and I track the results of ATS and Over/under in every quarter in my database, so I knew the GS/SAC over was pretty much a gimme and it would have been a Level 2 bet had I been handicapping better...They got 69 points in the 1Q for an easy win...

This is a new personal high losing streak for #1 totals...But I think it is a good thing, though...It shows the importance of tracking your own picks...People don't believe they can lose a lot of plays in a row...I have been tracking my plays for many, many years and it can be humbling to see all of the losing streaks over the years, but it is important to see those streaks to ward off any feelings of invincibility in regards to my top plays...When this #1 totals streak ends (if it ends) I should have an immediate win streak of 3 or 4 games (or hopefully more) afterwards...I am waiting for the streak to end before betting a total, although I could still bet a 1Q or 1H total if I see one...

I was 3-3 Week 1 and unless I see a 2H bet worthwhile, I'll be 3-3 for Week 2...Need to bet with MatchBook to eliminate this juice and hopefully and get on a winning streak...I like my Top 3 sides tonight, but I liked my Top 5 sides last night and went 2-3...I am exercising caution until I feel I am on the verge of breaking out...


Sides:

#1 Memp +11.5
#2 Tor +8.5
#3 Orl -7
#4 OKC +11
#5 NJ +9

Totals

#1 OKC ov 196.5
#2 NJ un 187.5
#3 Tor un 183
#4 Orl un 191.5
#5 Memp un 196.5

NO BETS

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
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Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
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Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
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good luck