really appreciated your system, it is a great guiding tool. Keep up the good work. Looking forward for another update...
I am looking into another angle based on your system, testing it right now... Today I have the clips, Indy, NJ, TOR all four are right on target. Once I have gather more data and tests, will talk to you in private about it.
really appreciated your system, it is a great guiding tool. Keep up the good work. Looking forward for another update...
I am looking into another angle based on your system, testing it right now... Today I have the clips, Indy, NJ, TOR all four are right on target. Once I have gather more data and tests, will talk to you in private about it.
really appreciated your system, it is a great guiding tool. Keep up the good work. Looking forward for another update...
I am looking into another angle based on your system, testing it right now... Today I have the clips, Indy, NJ, TOR all four are right on target. Once I have gather more data and tests, will talk to you in private about it.
Si1ly posts these things for the public benefit, so if you're onto something chickendinner74, i hope you'd share too.
really appreciated your system, it is a great guiding tool. Keep up the good work. Looking forward for another update...
I am looking into another angle based on your system, testing it right now... Today I have the clips, Indy, NJ, TOR all four are right on target. Once I have gather more data and tests, will talk to you in private about it.
Si1ly posts these things for the public benefit, so if you're onto something chickendinner74, i hope you'd share too.
no worry prophet777, once I have collected enough data and test it out. Will share with others, without proof and test, I don't want to say something and mislead others... Let's try out some example...
Sunday UTA @ ATL, based on system, ATL has +5.4 value, after going thru data, I will take ATL and cover the -2 line at home. On the other hand, CLE line is +3.5 at home, with the system, it shows CLE has +5.6 value, but I will hold off on this game. CLE could cover, but based on what I have, I would rather not to take this game. OKC line is -1, OKC has +2.5 value. I will also go with this as well. The last one is LAL, which has +1.7 value, but I will go against them. Final Card...
Wager type : Parlay Select #1 : NBA Basketball Atlanta Hawks 3/25/2012 3:05 PM - (PST) Spread -1½ -105 for Game Select #2 : NBA Basketball Oklahoma City Thunder 3/25/2012 5:05 PM - (PST) Spread -1 -105 for Game Select #3 : NBA Basketball Memphis Grizzlies 3/25/2012 7:35 PM - (PST) Spread +7 -105 for Game Amount : Risking 100 To Win 648 USD
no worry prophet777, once I have collected enough data and test it out. Will share with others, without proof and test, I don't want to say something and mislead others... Let's try out some example...
Sunday UTA @ ATL, based on system, ATL has +5.4 value, after going thru data, I will take ATL and cover the -2 line at home. On the other hand, CLE line is +3.5 at home, with the system, it shows CLE has +5.6 value, but I will hold off on this game. CLE could cover, but based on what I have, I would rather not to take this game. OKC line is -1, OKC has +2.5 value. I will also go with this as well. The last one is LAL, which has +1.7 value, but I will go against them. Final Card...
Wager type : Parlay Select #1 : NBA Basketball Atlanta Hawks 3/25/2012 3:05 PM - (PST) Spread -1½ -105 for Game Select #2 : NBA Basketball Oklahoma City Thunder 3/25/2012 5:05 PM - (PST) Spread -1 -105 for Game Select #3 : NBA Basketball Memphis Grizzlies 3/25/2012 7:35 PM - (PST) Spread +7 -105 for Game Amount : Risking 100 To Win 648 USD
Hey I love these posts, you do a great job man... I've been working on a similar "system" of sorts but I've hit a roadblock. I found Yahoo has up to date *Home/Away Splits* but i'm wondering if you, or anyone who sees this, might know of somewhere with up to date *Home/Away Splits - Opposing Team Stats* (Yahoo only has the generalized Opposing Team Stats)...can't seem to find anything with all the relevant, up-to-date information...
Hey I love these posts, you do a great job man... I've been working on a similar "system" of sorts but I've hit a roadblock. I found Yahoo has up to date *Home/Away Splits* but i'm wondering if you, or anyone who sees this, might know of somewhere with up to date *Home/Away Splits - Opposing Team Stats* (Yahoo only has the generalized Opposing Team Stats)...can't seem to find anything with all the relevant, up-to-date information...
Hey I love these posts, you do a great job man... I've been working on a similar "system" of sorts but I've hit a roadblock. I found Yahoo has up to date *Home/Away Splits* but i'm wondering if you, or anyone who sees this, might know of somewhere with up to date *Home/Away Splits - Opposing Team Stats* (Yahoo only has the generalized Opposing Team Stats)...can't seem to find anything with all the relevant, up-to-date information...
Hey I love these posts, you do a great job man... I've been working on a similar "system" of sorts but I've hit a roadblock. I found Yahoo has up to date *Home/Away Splits* but i'm wondering if you, or anyone who sees this, might know of somewhere with up to date *Home/Away Splits - Opposing Team Stats* (Yahoo only has the generalized Opposing Team Stats)...can't seem to find anything with all the relevant, up-to-date information...
OK, Day 1 hit 3-0, great start... Make the right pick and avoid the questionable one. Already take a look at tomorrow card, but so far didn't see anything yet. Based on Si1ly's system. WAS is +4.3 (based on +1.5 line), CHAR is +5.5 (based on +6.5 line), IND is +3.6 (based on +3 line) and NO is +5.4 (based on +9.5 line).
Looking at CHAR right now... hum... Others are all questionable... Will get back tomorrow...
OK, Day 1 hit 3-0, great start... Make the right pick and avoid the questionable one. Already take a look at tomorrow card, but so far didn't see anything yet. Based on Si1ly's system. WAS is +4.3 (based on +1.5 line), CHAR is +5.5 (based on +6.5 line), IND is +3.6 (based on +3 line) and NO is +5.4 (based on +9.5 line).
Looking at CHAR right now... hum... Others are all questionable... Will get back tomorrow...
Day 2 1-1 (Special thanks to Charlotte Byron Mullensmissing the FT last second and BOS covered, that's really F'up and kill my parlay by 1/2 pt). Will try out again tomorrow...
Day 2 1-1 (Special thanks to Charlotte Byron Mullensmissing the FT last second and BOS covered, that's really F'up and kill my parlay by 1/2 pt). Will try out again tomorrow...
I think we gotta swap spreadsheets sometime ATS is something I've still had little success with statistically...appreciate all the work.
When you apply the four factors to the teams, do you go player by player or do you just go by team? I had set-up a ML program that ran the attributes team by team which is nice, except it accounted not at all for injuries and trades...setting up a program to rate a team as a sum of all their players would more easily accommodate for that, but that seems like such a chore I've just built a little program to assess individual injuries, but it does little to account for trades, which I have to cap manually...would someday like to get my hands on somebody's program where they take the more advanced approach of rating a team's stats player-by-player almost entirely, as team stats become less relevant as teams change. Ah well! Big fan of the numbers, keep em' coming.
I think we gotta swap spreadsheets sometime ATS is something I've still had little success with statistically...appreciate all the work.
When you apply the four factors to the teams, do you go player by player or do you just go by team? I had set-up a ML program that ran the attributes team by team which is nice, except it accounted not at all for injuries and trades...setting up a program to rate a team as a sum of all their players would more easily accommodate for that, but that seems like such a chore I've just built a little program to assess individual injuries, but it does little to account for trades, which I have to cap manually...would someday like to get my hands on somebody's program where they take the more advanced approach of rating a team's stats player-by-player almost entirely, as team stats become less relevant as teams change. Ah well! Big fan of the numbers, keep em' coming.
I feel your pain chickendinner...I have nba league pass and I was juggling all the games I had action on and I turn it on to see the bs call on garnett looked at score knew we needed both free throws first one looked great I knew he was missing the second..ruined my night
I feel your pain chickendinner...I have nba league pass and I was juggling all the games I had action on and I turn it on to see the bs call on garnett looked at score knew we needed both free throws first one looked great I knew he was missing the second..ruined my night
Alright, I'm trying out your numbers...maybe I'll be able to bet ATS after all...took Minnesota +5.5 vs Memphis...if I did it right you take home team (Memphis) score (+3.1), subtract away team (MIN) score (+0.2) and that's what the point spread should be...2.9.
If I did it wrong...oops. Just figured I'd play with a unit and see how this ATS stuff works...and I might have parlayed it was two -1500 ATP matches just to bring my odds from -190 to +216
Alright, I'm trying out your numbers...maybe I'll be able to bet ATS after all...took Minnesota +5.5 vs Memphis...if I did it right you take home team (Memphis) score (+3.1), subtract away team (MIN) score (+0.2) and that's what the point spread should be...2.9.
If I did it wrong...oops. Just figured I'd play with a unit and see how this ATS stuff works...and I might have parlayed it was two -1500 ATP matches just to bring my odds from -190 to +216
Both of these wagers I only bet as they also happen to agree with my system's projected score...OKC 104.5 POR 102.5, MIN 98 MEM 98...anyhow, if I win 50% I'll be happy, 100% and I might be checking in on this thread again tomorrow night
Both of these wagers I only bet as they also happen to agree with my system's projected score...OKC 104.5 POR 102.5, MIN 98 MEM 98...anyhow, if I win 50% I'll be happy, 100% and I might be checking in on this thread again tomorrow night
Both of these wagers I only bet as they also happen to agree with my system's projected score...OKC 104.5 POR 102.5, MIN 98 MEM 98...anyhow, if I win 50% I'll be happy, 100% and I might be checking in on this thread again tomorrow night
RMLoxly88: Any chance you could give me a quick tutorial on how to build a model to predict game scores? I don't necessarily need your formula, but just a basic idea of how to normalize the four factors into actual scores. I'm sending you a friend request if you are willing. Thanks!
Both of these wagers I only bet as they also happen to agree with my system's projected score...OKC 104.5 POR 102.5, MIN 98 MEM 98...anyhow, if I win 50% I'll be happy, 100% and I might be checking in on this thread again tomorrow night
RMLoxly88: Any chance you could give me a quick tutorial on how to build a model to predict game scores? I don't necessarily need your formula, but just a basic idea of how to normalize the four factors into actual scores. I'm sending you a friend request if you are willing. Thanks!
RMLoxly88: Any chance you could give me a quick tutorial on how to build a model to predict game scores? I don't necessarily need your formula, but just a basic idea of how to normalize the four factors into actual scores. I'm sending you a friend request if you are willing. Thanks!
I don't lean on the four factors as much as Silly or others does. To predict score, in a very very very very very basic sense (I spent six weeks constructing my program) you figure out the average points a team will score on a possession vs. the points they will allow on a possession, then figure out how many possessions you should expect. A lot of this information is available on NBAStuffer.com, HoopData.com...the possessions statistic is called "Pace", then points scored per possession is offEFF, points allowed per possession is defEFF. Using those numbers straightforwardly won't be all that accurate though. I modify my numbers greatly based on how teams have performed against similar opponents, recently, home/away, etc. etc. etc. The importance of each category is something most statistics folks differ in opinion on, and that's where weighting comes into play.
Really though, it starts with reading about the different stats, what they mean, and getting yourself acquainted with Excel or a similar program that can quickly process all the information. Advanced knowledge of statistics or programming probably helps, but I'm not so fortunate.
Predicted totals aren't all that great anyhow.You can calculate the standard deviation in point totals and it reveals that it's easy to be far from what you predicted, as game scores vary greatly.
Then of course there's injuries, games in a row, refs, motivation, and all these other things to consider.....unless you're ready to invest some serious time into capping your best bet is probably to find a few successful cappers on here and just bet their POD's, sit back and watch
Probably way too long of an answer. I get excited talking about statistics
RMLoxly88: Any chance you could give me a quick tutorial on how to build a model to predict game scores? I don't necessarily need your formula, but just a basic idea of how to normalize the four factors into actual scores. I'm sending you a friend request if you are willing. Thanks!
I don't lean on the four factors as much as Silly or others does. To predict score, in a very very very very very basic sense (I spent six weeks constructing my program) you figure out the average points a team will score on a possession vs. the points they will allow on a possession, then figure out how many possessions you should expect. A lot of this information is available on NBAStuffer.com, HoopData.com...the possessions statistic is called "Pace", then points scored per possession is offEFF, points allowed per possession is defEFF. Using those numbers straightforwardly won't be all that accurate though. I modify my numbers greatly based on how teams have performed against similar opponents, recently, home/away, etc. etc. etc. The importance of each category is something most statistics folks differ in opinion on, and that's where weighting comes into play.
Really though, it starts with reading about the different stats, what they mean, and getting yourself acquainted with Excel or a similar program that can quickly process all the information. Advanced knowledge of statistics or programming probably helps, but I'm not so fortunate.
Predicted totals aren't all that great anyhow.You can calculate the standard deviation in point totals and it reveals that it's easy to be far from what you predicted, as game scores vary greatly.
Then of course there's injuries, games in a row, refs, motivation, and all these other things to consider.....unless you're ready to invest some serious time into capping your best bet is probably to find a few successful cappers on here and just bet their POD's, sit back and watch
Probably way too long of an answer. I get excited talking about statistics
No it's not too long at all! I really appreciate the answer! I figured that was at least one process to start calculating it and realized it would be tedious--maybe I just needed that to be confirmed so I knew how much I needed to dedicate time to data-crunching. Thanks a bunch!
No it's not too long at all! I really appreciate the answer! I figured that was at least one process to start calculating it and realized it would be tedious--maybe I just needed that to be confirmed so I knew how much I needed to dedicate time to data-crunching. Thanks a bunch!
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