monday lines (25-11-1 last 36, around 70%) oh! and.. (9-2-1 **(big)**, around 82%)

Picks (no leans - no time - no write up during the day - but can explain pick upon request):

Orlando -2*** and OrlandoAtlanta Under 187  

Stan Van Gundy is upset with his team's defense, lost 6 of 7 or something like that, and giving up a lot of points along the way. I was betting on them last game against Philly, and got screwed because of the trades, believing they were going to go hard and set the tone for their next few games before christmas. It will be tonight against the hawks, who won't have jamal crawford. 

Utah will win tonight, and I don't know how the cavs are going to come out so I don't want to bet the spread. When a team loses 10 games in a row, it leaves a reallllly bad taste in their mouths. So when that finally gets a win, it's very possible that they will be motivated to not go back. Now, I can't say that Cleveland is that type of team, but I also can't say for sure that they will come out hard. Either way, I don't see this as any kind of defensive game whatsoever.

I just picture this as like a really intense high school game, where the crowd is constantly buzzing and cheering and booing and woww-ing.. It will be a very intense game with emotions running high. I look at this game like as if it were a chess match. Neither team knows exactly what they need to do to pull out a victory, so with that said, I dont think they will too offensive-minded, but rather a little more reserved. Each team knows what the other team is capable of offensively. They're both powerhouses. But which team can defend better? That's the question of the day. And I think that these two squads are going into tonight with that kind of mindset - where they know that defense will win tonight's game. 

I think the Spurs will beat the Suns by 20+ tonight. Phoenix has covered 7 of their last 8 against the spurs, and the only cover by the spurs was with a 2 point win as a 1 point favorite. The Suns have had the Spurs' number in the past few years. But this "rivalry" is no longer a rivalry once the Suns lost Amare. It's now the Spurs that will start a streak of their own against Phx. I like the spurs ats, but the over all depends on how many points the suns will put up. I am pretty confident that the Spurs will put up at least 110 or something, but that also means that if you want to cover the -11.5 and the over 213, the spurs need to score at least 113 and the suns 101. If you think the suns will reach the 100 point mark tonight, then the over should be a bet. 

I had this at Under 185*** before the line even came out, and I was hoping I would catch it early, but 180 is damnnn low. I still think it goes under.

That's all for now.. 

let's try this again...

No side here, just the over - and if one wants additional value on a parlay, or is willing to lay down a ML straight bet, I think Utah wins outright without much doubt

The Cleveland o/u line will continue to fluctuate, so if you do decide to take the over, you might want to wait until it hits 197 or 197.5 or lower.

If you are think of taking the Dallas/Miami under, you might want to wait until the line goes up because I even see it reaching 193 or 193.5. 

Besides that, if you want to take the under in Mil/Portland, you should take it now before it drops more, now at 179.

That said,

Locked in:

 -- sportsfreak 

anddd...

Keep in mind guys, lines/spreads are created not only to accurately render two different teams, who are different in quality, equal (with numerical values/spreads), but also in order to lure bettors to a certain side. 

The number 198 appears a bit high at first glance and I am sure a lot of people looked at the total and immediately turned away. I honestly think that had the total come out at 203, for example, more people would be inclined to bet the over than at 198. It's a weird method of thinking, I know, trust me. But I also know how I used to bet, before I started creating my own lines, and my true opinions and feelings about games would get so easily tampered with whenever I would see specific numbers, if that makes sense.

198 basically means that both teams won't 100 a piece. And when one thinks in that respect, at least for me, I automatically feel like it would go under for some odd reason. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I'm crazy. But one thing I know for sure is that people constantly talk about "trap bets" and "fixes" and all that stuff - I've been there, and sometimes I still go there (unfortunately). But the bottom line is that Vegas is a business and they've been in business, and lucrative too mind you, for a very, very long time. Their main source of income is capitalizing on the juice they receive, and although constant action would sufficiently pay off books because of that juice, we live in a greeedy world, and those fuckers are out to get your money, and mine. Just be aware. Try to think about what Vegas wants on a daily basis. Obviously they would want all dogs (public perception wise) to win, but then people would catch on and start betting accordingly. So Vegas will win some, and will lose some. They will win big many times, and will lose big only a few times. Your goal should be to capitalize with them, not against them. Ok, sorry for rambling. im out. peace

A looked into it a little more and just realized that the referee assignment tonight is nottt in my favor for the over.

James Capers - games with totals between 195-204.5 - record 2-2 (O/U)

Mark Lindsay - games with totals between 195-204.5 - record 2-5 (O/U)  I have no idea what this face means, but it's to some extent how I feel right now..

and... wait for it... best for last

wait for it...

Tom Washington - games with totals between 195-204.5 - 

wait...

record: 1-9 (O/U)  

hopefully they assigned him to this game so that he can somehow even that record up, but something tells me that it aint gna happen. Let's see.. 

 to e v e r y o n e  

 

Based on the line movement, and the action on the jazz: cleveland covers tonight. I feel like if cleveland covers tonight then maybeee it goes over?? I really dont know Im not going to lie. Anyone have any feelings on this game? If cleveland were to cover against the jazz at home, would that indicate a high-scoring affair or low?

My gut feeling brings me back to the high scoring, but it doesnt make sense whatsoever -- the line is now 195. whatever im done here, i need to just wait and see..