NBA Playoffs: 17-11 +10.75 units
UNDER 185 -105 to win 2 UNITS
Coming off a 2-0 sweep in game 2 with the full game over 182 and a nice middle as we hit the under 96 in the second half. I didn't play game 3 because I just had no feel for the way the game would play out but now feel like we should be able to cash this under.
Game 1 was well on the way to going under 181.5 thanks to a first half that saw 79 total points. The game needed a huge 56 point 4th quarter to get over the total and force OT, Game 2 saw the line stay steady at 182 and I provided my reasons for going over the total. After the game saw 100 first half points and on pace for the over, we got the chance for a big middle spread, played the second half under for half our game stake and we hit both bets as scoring dropped off imensly in the second half. (90 total points)
Game three saw the game open with a 182 total and the game started with a bang with 126 first half points ... but the second half was again back to hard nosed basketball with 84 total points.
Now we get a big line move vs game 1 .. 4 points and in the power rating world this is significant and normally when I like to go against the line adjustments.
The Pacers need to keep the game tight and cannot let the Heat get carried away. The game they won was the game they limited Miami to 93 points. There is too much offensive fire-power to control so they must limit the mistakes and play the game slower.
Should the Pacers force a game 5 then I would be inclined to lean over in the next game but they cannot allow Miami to put up 30 points a quarter and expect to win. Note that the Pacers were in the game in all the low scoring halfs but were killed when they allowed Miami to run.
Are the Pacers going to go to the line a whopping 44 times again in this game? I highly doubt it. Given the average 75% FT shooting and if both teams can limit the other team to 30 trips as has been the average, then those freebee points should go away.
Expect a defensive performance by Indiana that keeps them in the game. I make the total for this game 181 and believe that NOW there is some value in taking the under.
I looked the Officiating crew for game 2 and it solidified my over. Tonight's crew also helps our under. Crawford is 11-19 "under" with a total of 185-194.5, Mott is 15-16 "under" in that range, and Stafford is 12-17 under in that price range.
Indiana's defence allowed 90 ppg in the regular season. They need THAT defense to show up tonight beause that's the only way they stand a chance at tieing the series.
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