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*** Los Angeles Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks ***

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Posted: #1

Tough day yesterday. In the last 5 games i've played the Clippers I have gone 0-5 for -25.2 units meaning I would be above +100 units on the year if I avoided them ATS. They were definitely the wrong side yesterday, but them missing 11 free throws and Chris Paul going 0-12 definitely didn't help. I capped there game today, but i'm not touching a side on it. Let's see if we can reverse the curse on a total play.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks

Mavericks are 3-0 to the Over this year following an overtime game going over by an average of 22 points. The Clippers and Mavs have faced off twice this year and the Over is also 2-0 going over by an average of 36.75 points. The Mavericks are 17-11 OVER in revenge games this year including 9-4 OVER when playing at home.

The best part.. the Clips have played 4 straight unders and are playing a team off an Over game on 0 rest, this is part of a very strong system of mine that is 1-8 ATS and 9-0 Over the past 3 seasons going over by an average of 12.61 points.

  1. ATS: 1-8-0 (-6.89, 11.1%)
  2. O/U: 9-0-0 (12.61, 100.0%)
  • Mavericks Team Total Over 104 (3.5x)
  • 76ers/Rockets Under 215 (1.5x)
  • Lakers/Bucks Over 219.5 (1x)

Season YTD: +74.05 Units
5+ Unit Plays: 16-4
 
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Posted: #2
Good luck LC -- really like that play
 
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Posted: #3

 

Bounce back tonight, LC !! 

 
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Posted: #4
i dig the picks LC. GL 
 
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Posted: #5
When you say 1-8 ATS -- is that the Clippers in this spot?
 
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Posted: #6
Damn, wish my book offered team totals. GL LC! 
 
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Posted: #7

Quote Originally Posted by bobmaloogatimesfive:

When you say 1-8 ATS -- is that the Clippers in this spot?

Yes, system favors the Mavs and the Over which is the reason i'm just playing the Mavs TT. The over should hit as well but the TT looks like a better bet.

 
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Posted: #8

Quote Originally Posted by SteezMonger:

Damn, wish my book offered team totals. GL LC! 

Over 209 would be my alternate

 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Tough day yesterday. In the last 5 games i've played the Clippers I have gone 0-5 for -25.2 units meaning I would be above +100 units on the year if I avoided them ATS. They were definitely the wrong side yesterday, but them missing 11 free throws and Chris Paul going 0-12 definitely didn't help. I capped there game today, but i'm not touching a side on it. Let's see if we can reverse the curse on a total play.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks

Mavericks are 3-0 to the Over this year following an overtime game going over by an average of 22 points. The Clippers and Mavs have faced off twice this year and the Over is also 2-0 going over by an average of 36.75 points. The Mavericks are 17-11 OVER in revenge games this year including 9-4 OVER when playing at home.

The best part.. the Clips have played 4 straight unders and are playing a team off an Over game on 0 rest, this is part of a very strong system of mine that is 1-8 ATS and 9-0 Over the past 3 seasons going over by an average of 12.61 points.

  1. ATS: 1-8-0 (-6.89, 11.1%)
  2. O/U: 9-0-0 (12.61, 100.0%)
  • Mavericks Team Total Over 104 (3.5x)
  • 76ers/Rockets Under 215 (1.5x)
  • Lakers/Bucks Over 219.5 (1x)

Season YTD: +74.05 Units
5+ Unit Plays: 16-4

Nice write up, LC. In one of my dumber moves I took the total at 212 yesterday when it first came out. I thought it was low then, but now I'm regretting it. Also love the blazers here, I'm surprised you are not taking them. This is a big big game for them, as they could lose to Chicago tomorrow (making it 4 losses in a row) and the Hawks are playing their 4th game in 5 nights and when these guys lose they lose in bunches. I see this as a big blazers win. I got at -3 but even -4.5 looks good.
 
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Posted: #10
Got a question LC. I noticed on sportsbook spy that 85% of the public is on the over, yet it shifted from 212 to 209. Does massive RLM like that ever worry you or affect your play on totals?
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:


Nice write up, LC. In one of my dumber moves I took the total at 212 yesterday when it first came out. I thought it was low then, but now I'm regretting it. Also love the blazers here, I'm surprised you are not taking them. This is a big big game for them, as they could lose to Chicago tomorrow (making it 4 losses in a row) and the Hawks are playing their 4th game in 5 nights and when these guys lose they lose in bunches. I see this as a big blazers win. I got at -3 but even -4.5 looks good.

They've lost 7 of there last 8 road games. There terrible on the road. Portland is desperate for a win but don't forget ATL is fighting for the 8th playoff spot as well. Blazers are the right side, but I'm not touching them on the road here

 
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Posted: #12

Quote Originally Posted by SteezMonger:

Got a question LC. I noticed on sportsbook spy that 85% of the public is on the over, yet it shifted from 212 to 209. Does massive RLM like that ever worry you or affect your play on totals?

Not much, I take note of RLM on sides but not much on totals. The 209 is on it's way up anyways.  

 
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Posted: #13
LC how about lakers tt o 108?
 
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Posted: #14
Might be against you on Bucks total.  Lakers next game tomorrow is at Minn and then home vs  Suns.  They are coming off a 127 game.
Bucks are looking at a Miami team that beat them for 23 points last time.  Just an interesting situational spot I want to think about.
 
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Posted: #15
GL
 
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Posted: #16

Quote Originally Posted by guido92defran:

LC how about lakers tt o 108?

Bucks should put up a ton as well, I like the total better but looks good

 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Tough day yesterday. In the last 5 games i've played the Clippers I have gone 0-5 for -25.2 units meaning I would be above +100 units on the year if I avoided them ATS. They were definitely the wrong side yesterday, but them missing 11 free throws and Chris Paul going 0-12 definitely didn't help. I capped there game today, but i'm not touching a side on it. Let's see if we can reverse the curse on a total play.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks

Mavericks are 3-0 to the Over this year following an overtime game going over by an average of 22 points. The Clippers and Mavs have faced off twice this year and the Over is also 2-0 going over by an average of 36.75 points. The Mavericks are 17-11 OVER in revenge games this year including 9-4 OVER when playing at home.

The best part.. the Clips have played 4 straight unders and are playing a team off an Over game on 0 rest, this is part of a very strong system of mine that is 1-8 ATS and 9-0 Over the past 3 seasons going over by an average of 12.61 points.

  1. ATS: 1-8-0 (-6.89, 11.1%)
  2. O/U: 9-0-0 (12.61, 100.0%)
  • Mavericks Team Total Over 104 (3.5x)
  • 76ers/Rockets Under 215 (1.5x)
  • Lakers/Bucks Over 219.5 (1x)

Season YTD: +74.05 Units
5+ Unit Plays: 16-4

LC, sorry about the tough day yesterday.  Do you have any concern that the Clippers will be motivated to play ramped-up D, along with the Mavs being focused on the defensive end because they are fighting for a playoff spot.  This may take away from their offensive production. Just some thoughts of mine.
 
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Posted: #18

Quote Originally Posted by tuck321:

Might be against you on Bucks total.  Lakers next game tomorrow is at Minn and then home vs  Suns.  They are coming off a 127 game.
Bucks are looking at a Miami team that beat them for 23 points last time.  Just an interesting situational spot I want to think about.

Bucks aren't looking ahead to a Miami team that will demolish them I can promise you that. Bad teams don't look ahead to top teams. If anything, they'll be more focused on today knowing Miami is on deck. Bucks were actually an early lean of mine, but I told myself I wouldn't put money on the Bucks or Sixers for the remainder of the year

 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by thomthekid:


LC, sorry about the tough day yesterday.  Do you have any concern that the Clippers will be motivated to play ramped-up D, along with the Mavs being focused on the defensive end because they are fighting for a playoff spot.  This may take away from their offensive production. Just some thoughts of mine.

They played ramped up D yesterday, the game soared under and they lost. They missed 11 free throws and Chris Paul went 0-12, they'll be focused on their offense today.

 
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Posted: #20
Good to see you on the TT over as well, I put largest bet of the year on this!\\
 
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Posted: #21
LC any concerns over the heavy RLM? open at 212 and all the way down to 209?
 
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Posted: #22
If the Dallas TT is only 104 and they are suppose to win, maybe it ends up being 107-101 or something weird? I still like the over but that is some heavy RLM
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by dtat0129:

If the Dallas TT is only 104 and they are suppose to win, maybe it ends up being 107-101 or something weird? I still like the over but that is some heavy RLM

Yeah, this concerns me too. I don't get it. I grabbed it at 212, thinking it was ten points too low. Carlisle is a smart coach. He ran the Thunder off a b to b and I expect him to do the same with the Clips, increasing the pace and volume of shots. Hell, even Brian Shaw was smart enough to do that and the Clips got tired in Denver and that was a low scoring game, as Clips could not buy a bucket and they were thin with no Crawford. They'll have Crawford today, though, which should also help. 
 
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Posted: #24
Thank you for the response LC.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:


Yeah, this concerns me too. I don't get it. I grabbed it at 212, thinking it was ten points too low. Carlisle is a smart coach. He ran the Thunder off a b to b and I expect him to do the same with the Clips, increasing the pace and volume of shots. Hell, even Brian Shaw was smart enough to do that and the Clips got tired in Denver and that was a low scoring game, as Clips could not buy a bucket and they were thin with no Crawford. They'll have Crawford today, though, which should also help. 

The Mavs are 9-2 OVER in home games against opponents off 0 rest

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