I don't expect the Nets to show up for this one, whereas the Bulls, coming off an intensely humiliating, nationally televised TNT mega-drubbing, simply must.
The pressure is off the Nets. At the beginning of the week, they were still at risk of finishing this nightmare season with the fewest wins ever achieved by an NBA team. Following Monday night's home loss to Miami, their record fell to 7-63. At their rate of a win every couple of weeks or so, time was running out in their quest to at least tie those 72-73 Sixers. They still had a bunch of home games coming up, but that wasn't much consolation considering they'd just lost their 14th straight game at the Izod Center. But now, just days later, the Nets have put together their first winning streak of the season, bagging solid wins at home over fellow doormats the Kings and the Pistons. They are now 9-63 and assured of not attaining the most dubious of NBA records, a record that for most of the season appeared to be one they were destined to own.
For the first time this season, the Nets are feeling kinda good about themselves. Instead of worrying about permanent infamy, they're now thinking "Hey, we just have to win one more to avoid tying the record, and we've got ten chances to do it." In other words, as they awaken in their hotel rooms this morning in downtown Chicago, they're feeling satisfied (or feeling as much satisfaction as a 9-63 record will allow). The urgency they obviously felt on Wednesday against Sacramento and again last night against Detroit probably won't be there tonight.
Take a look at New Jersey's recent schedule. At the beginning of February, having seemingly hit rock bottom with a home loss to the Pistons that left them at 4-43, the Nets began to play much more competitively on the road, taking advantage of the fact that none of their opponents was able to take them seriously. The result was eleven straight road covers from February 3rd (at Toronto) to March 13th (at Houston). Meanwhile, during the same period of time, they couldn't win a single game at home, dumping fourteen in a row from January 29th to last Monday against the Heat. The pattern had clearly been established - you could actually make money on these guys when they played on the road, but at home they were still a huge money burner.
It looks like that pattern has changed, and I suspect that just as bettors are gearing up to take advantage of New Jersey's ability to keep road games close, the Bulls are gearing up to make sure this one isn't. The road cover streak ended in Philadelphia ten days ago with a 108-97 loss. The long string of home losses ended with this week's back-to-back wins. The Nets are now basically in the middle of a 7-game homestand interrupted only by this unwanted trip to Chicago where they'll play without rest and off a win which I'm sure has left them hugely relieved. The bettors are aware that the Nets have been a great road cover for two months now, and now New Jersey looks positively juicy getting 9.5 from a Bulls team that has fallen apart. Bettors have built up enough faith to bet on the Nets with confidence. But there's just one problem. The situation is horrendous. Oddsmakers opened the Bulls at -10 for good reason.
Chicago is coming off a loss that could hardly have been more embarrassing. Playing at home on Thursday night with Ernie, Kenny, and Charles sitting courtside calling the game for TNT, the Bulls got booed off the floor at halftime down by 30 points. By the end of the third, they were down by a laughable 86-49 score. It was a complete disaster. But, even the worst of teams are often able to respond following losses as ugly as that one. Furthermore, I hope the Bulls will remember that they allowed these Nets to notch their first road win of the season back in early December. Again, I hope they'll be interested in making sure they don't become the first (and only) team in the NBA to lose to the Nets on their home floor twice. I hope the red-faced Bulls are in the mood to kick some 9-63 butt.
I took the Bulls -9.5 +108.
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