It was a nice 4-1 night last night, which included going 2-1 in my Top Play Totals. Those Plays are now a solid 33-14-1 (69.8%) on the year. Let’s Keep it rolling tonight.
TOP PLAYS
3 UNIT PLAYS
Atlanta/ Memphis Over 184: Memphis comes in struggling a bit on offense as they have averaged just 86.4 ppg in their last 5 games, but I feel they are due to breakout a bit in this one. Atlanta has allowed 92 points or more in 4 of their last 6 game and they do allow 92.2 ppg and I feel that the Grizzlies should be good for at least 92 points in this one. Atlanta has been a very so,id team on offense this year as they have averaged 97.6 ppg on 45.6% shooting, while at home they have averaged 103.8 ppg on 46.7% shooting. The Hawks are also a very good 3pt shooting teams as they have hit 40.4 % of their long range shots overall and 38.8% of them at home. Neither team is great from the line, but if both teams hit their percentages we should be fine. This is a low OU line for an Atlanta home game where 196 ppg have been scored and i would expect this one to hit 190 or higher.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
New Orleans/ San Antonio Over 183.5:
Like the Grizzlies above, the Hornets have had problems scoring this
year as they have averaged just 88.1 ppg on the year, but they have
picked it up a bit of late as they have averaged 92.6 ppg in their last 6
games and 99 ppg in their last 2 games. Now in a game with an OU line
of 183.5 and where the Spurs are expected to win, if the Hornets hit 92
points in this one, then this will be an easy over. It won't be that
easy to hit though as the Spurs have allowed just 89.6 ppg at home and
87 ppg in their last 5 games overall, but the Hornets did put up 102
points on them in their last game, so i feel that the Hornets should at
least hit 90 points in this one. The Spurs on offense have been pushing
the ball a bit more this year and it has resulted in 97 ppg overall,
including 101.8 ppg at home and they should be able to score plenty on a
Hornets team that has allowed 95.4 ppg on the road and 98.2 ppg on a
whopping 49% shooting their last 5 overall. Even if the Hornets are held
to around 89 or 90 points, i have to believe that the Spurs are good
for at least 95 points and that will still get us the OVER here. POWER
ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Over in all games where the total is
between 180 and 189.5 points and the road team is a poor offensive team
(88-92 PPG) off a game where the combined score was 205 or higher, vs
an average defensive team (92-98 PPG). This play is 43-16 since 1996.
Utah/ Golden State Over 194.5: I
sense a pattern here LOL. Utah games have been a bit high scoring of
last as their last 6 games have averaged 203.8 ppg. The Jazz have been
excellent at the Offensive end of late as they have hit the century mark
in 7 of their last 10 games, while scoring an average of 102.1 ppg over
that stretch. Now they get to face a Golden State team that has allowed
99.2 ppg overall and 98.3 ppg at home The Warriors on offense have
averaged 96.2 ppg overall, while in their last 3 (all at home) that
number has jumped to 101 ppg. Utah has not played great defense on the
road this year, where they have allowed 102.7 ppg, while they have also
allowed 103.2 ppg in their last 5 overall. Both teams have their
offenses clicking a bit right now and that should translate in about 200
points or more in this one. KEY TRENDS--- UTAH is 25-12 OVER in
a road game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the
last 3 seasons, while GOLDEN STATE is 17-5 OVER in home games off a
close home win by 3 points or less since 1996.
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAYS
Portland -3.5 over SACRAMENTO: The
Kings are not a good team and while Portland has struggled on the road
this year, they are the better team and should be able to win this one
with ease. Let's also Play against home teams shooting <=43% with a
defense that allows >=46% on the season against opponent after game
where they allowed a shooting pct. of 35% or less. This play is 24-5
since 1996.
5 POINT TEASER--- Utah +9.5 & San Antonio -4
BEST OF LUCK EVERYONE
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