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Its a new day, lets hope we can repeat yesterday!

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Prospect
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Posted: #101
lakers are down 20 with 7 minutes to go i hope they can make a run and cove this  will let you know
 
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Posted: #102
well technically we shouldnt count the plays...they were more of an experiment...the 4 i would really consider plays were
 
TONIGHTS PLAYS
 
Houston (6-1) at Memphis (1-4)  under 198.5
Miami (1-5) at Charlotte (3-3)  under 180
 
 NHL PLAYS
Montreal (9-4-1-2) at Toronto (7-7-2-2) under 6 
Los Angeles (8-8-0-0) at Anaheim (7-8-1-2) over 5.5 (pending)
 
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Posted: #103
wel with tongiht offical plays we are 1-2 with 1 pending, hopefully it hits b/c i hate patyin the books...
 
these plays were part of a system that is still an experiment, until today it was lookin great...but not too bad of a day, could of been worse...
 
Seattle +10
Memphis + 6.5
LAL + 8
Dallas -12
Miami +1.5
 
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Posted: #104
Yes, I agree. The last NHL game is looking good 3 goals in the 1st period.
 
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Posted: #105
We have a lot of games tomorrow. At first glance, I am seeing some good overs.
 
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Posted: #106
Tomorrows Games:
 
Indiana Under 201
Orlando Over 194.5
Boston Over 184.5
Memphis Over 194
NY Under 200
 
The Spreads ( again this is a test) went 2-3 tonight:
Utah +1.5
Atlanta -5
NO - 8
 
Still a couple of games with totals/spreads not up yet.
 
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Posted: #107
 
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Posted: #108
Quote Originally Posted by gutcheck:

Tomorrows Games:
 
Indiana Under 201
Orlando Over 194.5
Boston Over 184.5
Memphis Over 194
NY Under 200
 
The Spreads ( again this is a test) went 2-3 tonight:
Utah +1.5
Atlanta -5
NO - 8
 
Still a couple of games with totals/spreads not up yet.

Memphis is incorrect, no play.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #109
Have you guys crunched the numbers on first halves with the same formula and maybe a 3 pt differential?
 
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Posted: #110
Los Angeles (8-8-0-0) at Anaheim (7-8-1-2) over 5.5
 
 
well now i can go to bed kinda happy....at least it was a .500 night...lost a LIL juice but oh well....2-2 for the night...will be back tomorrow with some more NBA NHL picks...BOL
 
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Posted: #111
Quote Originally Posted by jerremyniehaus:

Have you guys crunched the numbers on first halves with the same formula and maybe a 3 pt differential?

 

No i habe not looked into any 1st halfs...if i have time tomorrow i may look at some from today and compare tem and let you know what i see...BOL

 
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Posted: #112
gutcheck, milkman...ive been doing this system for almost a week now and it seems more often than not when a play fits the criteria for an under it hits a lot more often than when the over is the play.. any of you notice that? maybe its just me.
 
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Posted: #113
another observation I have is that when the calculations are right on(1 point or less) the play seems to go over(NBA)... Again correct me if im wrong, I don't have the numbers in front of me right now
 
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Posted: #114
Quote Originally Posted by playaism:

another observation I have is that when the calculations are right on(1 point or less) the play seems to go over(NBA)... Again correct me if im wrong, I don't have the numbers in front of me right now

 

hmm have not looed into this....tonight i will CAP all games and then i will watch the ones i did not play and see what the results are.  this could be another little wrinkle, but i will also go back and see what the stats say...anyone hear know how to set up an EXCEL spread sheet for something like this?

 
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Posted: #115
Good Morning Guys, 2-2 on the night, not bad all considered.
 
YTD POSTED 30-14!
 
The spread system didn't do as well as I had hoped, but will try again tonight.
Over/Unders:
Indiana Under 201
Orlando Over 194.5
Boston Over 184.5
NY Under 200
Detroit Over 206
 
Spreads ( Not playing - Test only)
Utah +1.5
Atlanta -5
NO - 8
Denver -10
NY + 7
Golden State +2.5
Lakers + 7.5
 
Good Luck! Lets have a winning day!!!
 
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Posted: #116
Milkman, I see one NHL game that fits the system, Dallas/San Jose over 5. However, need to be careful, these 2 teams played not too long ago and the total was 4.
 
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Posted: #117
Been following the system and I understand the NBA system, but hows it work with hockey.....1 goal,2 goals differential??
 
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Posted: #118
Gut, I thought BOS was a no play??
 
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Posted: #119
i try to use 1.5 goals for NHL, but in some cases i use 1...i have used .8 before and it worked well but i like at least 1...1.5 is strong...these are the NHL plays I got...i think all of these are at least 1 goal differential but i will have to double check...
 
Chicago (10-7-0-0) at Columbus (8-6-0-3) over 5 
San Jose (9-7-0-2) at Dallas (7-7-3-0)  over 5 
Edmonton (6-10-0-1) at Vancouver (8-8-0-0) over 5
 
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Posted: #120
Quote Originally Posted by Rasputen:

Gut, I thought BOS was a no play??

 

you only play BOSTON if it is OVER...if it is under then you stay away...but i was looking at BOSTONS stats and they are 2-4 over / under....We might need to start hitting those UNDERS with BOSTON...What do you think?

 
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Posted: #121
Quote Originally Posted by MILKMAN0923:

 

you only play BOSTON if it is OVER...if it is under then you stay away...but i was looking at BOSTONS stats and they are 2-4 over / under....We might need to start hitting those UNDERS with BOSTON...What do you think?

You might be right about that. We should also check the other teams, like GS, Seattle, and the Suns.

 
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Posted: #122
I have noticed that the plays with highest spread arent necessarily the best. I think that the matchups need to be narrowed down to no more than 5, than analyzed by the style of play for each team. BOS will not go over all the time depending on who they play. I think that one day i will sit down and have a labeled style of play on a sheet for each team and when they play match it up, then use the system with the best over and under. As for NHL and NFL i am still thinking about it, just though id tell you
 
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Posted: #123
GS  5-0  over / under
 
PHO 3-5 over / under
 
SEA 3-5 over / under
 
UTAH 6-2 over / under
 
MIA 1-6 over / under
 
thought i would throw in some extras....
 
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Posted: #124
Quote Originally Posted by Sports1313:

I have noticed that the plays with highest spread arent necessarily the best. I think that the matchups need to be narrowed down to no more than 5, than analyzed by the style of play for each team. BOS will not go over all the time depending on who they play. I think that one day i will sit down and have a labeled style of play on a sheet for each team and when they play match it up, then use the system with the best over and under. As for NHL and NFL i am still thinking about it, just though id tell you

 

yes i would agree, just b/c a team has a 10 pnt differential doesnt mean that team is gonna cover 100%, you do have games that go the other way..i am also trying to set up some sort of SPREADSHEET and follow all the games and see what numbers work best...Any ideas on how to set this up?

 
 
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Posted: #125
I think playing these on the math alone is not a good idea.  From this point on, I'm only playing overs with teams that at least have one with a days rest.  If you take two teams that have played B2B games or B2B2B games, taking the over because the numbers say to doesn't seem logical.  I'm going to start taking the other factors into consideration and posting my plays.  We'll see the difference from playing them all and see if this can be tweaked some more.
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