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******IF THE JAZZ DON'T COVER, I'LL LEAVE FOR A MONTH THREAD"*********

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by Bugekins:

Win or Lose on the Jazz covering, it is a terrible bet!!!!
 
Lakers have won 15 of their last 16 games in a row going back to the regular season, and 10 in a row.....They have yet to lose in the playoffs....They are 6 and 0 and have covered every game they have played in these playoffs....I am not saying to take the Lakers to cover, but if not that, then stay away!
 
For anyone who is taking the Jazz to cover, you are only assuming because they are down in the series.....But assuming is bad betting!!!   Here are some tips for betting playoff series:
 
-Dont bet Game 3's
-Dont ever bet against Kobe
-Dont ever assume because of home records

Do you have win/lose records of bettors on game 3? This sounds crazy IMO

Let me help you with your tips.  Don' ever bet against Kobe?! Don't you know that the Fakers' ATS record this regular season is 48-33-1?  They didn't cover 33 out of 84 games they played while Utah covered 38 out of 53 games they played at home.  Make the comparison.  Desperation brings out inspiration.

Thanks for the tips but no thanks.

 

 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by Bugekins:

Win or Lose on the Jazz covering, it is a terrible bet!!!!
 
Lakers have won 15 of their last 16 games in a row going back to the regular season, and 10 in a row.....They have yet to lose in the playoffs....They are 6 and 0 and have covered every game they have played in these playoffs....I am not saying to take the Lakers to cover, but if not that, then stay away!
 
For anyone who is taking the Jazz to cover, you are only assuming because they are down in the series.....But assuming is bad betting!!!   Here are some tips for betting playoff series:
 
-Dont bet Game 3's
-Dont ever bet against Kobe
-Dont ever assume because of home records

I'll try to keep these things in mind. I don't know what I was thinking. I do have some thoughts one the tips...

1. Don't bet Game Three's - should never do that. Can you tell me why?

2. Don't ever bet against Kobe - is this going on the verbage that he is the greatest player in the world (he is) and he can win any game at any time? You don't think Kobe has lost many games for the Lakers trying to do way too much?

3. Don't ever assume because of home records - it isn't assuming. It is 88.6% fact. It can be an overwhelming advantage in basketball, and I don't know what would need to happen for you to open your eyes. This is one of the strongest trends in the current playoffs, more than any in recent memory. Why do you think that a line moves 10 points in one direction just based on a change in venue? Lakers go from a 6 point fav to a 4 point dog. It is almost standard formula for books. It is stone cold fact that certain teams have a home court advantage put directly in the line, no matter what. Why? Because the numbers don't lie.  Also, is it hard to realize that the home team always gets the calls down the stretch? A thing I see in almost EVERY basketball game is the home team goes on a run, and then they make a big three or a huge dunk. On the next trip down the court for the away team, you can literally tackle them and there will be no call. All of the sudden it was a "clean block." How about when the home team is making a push and the PG drives and kicks it out for that wide open three? The entire building goes silent for that brief moment, then swish!! The place goes apeshit. There is no way you can put a value on that energy swing. It holds true more in basketball than any other sport. That is why means so much.

 
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Posted: #28
Dude, I know you're a pretty decent capper but I don't see no point in what you are doing. I guess if you wanna be recognized around here (which again, i see no real point in) just keep on posting winning plays. Then again, a capper/poster here is just as good as their last made play.
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by JuniorLeaguer:

Dude, I know you're a pretty decent capper but I don't see no point in what you are doing. I guess if you wanna be recognized around here (which again, i see no real point in) just keep on posting winning plays. Then again, a capper/poster here is just as good as their last made play.

Exactly. It actually started as joke, but I'm going to stick to it. The reason for all this is simple - trying to help novice bettors become better. People need to start discussing games, not posting crazy picks with little or no basis as to why. Sometimes there are bets that come along that you almost have to make because of their long term winning percentage. This is one of them. This is all about going better than 52% ATS, beating the juice, and making money. There are more than enough people on here that could actually make money instead of throwing it away. I want people to win money, and understand why. I'm not going to just post picks and say nothing about them. It should be about much more than that. If this thread sparks intelligent debate, mission accomplished.

 

 

 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by walktheline:

Thanks man. That was my intent.

You remind me of when Tommy first arrived a Shawshank. He came in with a new attitude and shook things up.

Glad to see you are a Pens fan too. I am a huge fan myself.

 

 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by jeopardy:

Walktheline, look at what I found.  It is a friday game and:
 
LAL are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
  • Over is 10-3 in LAL last 13 Fri. games.
  • LAL are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 road games.
  • Over is 21-7 in UTA last 28 vs. NBA Pacific.
  • UTA are 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 home games.
  • Over is 7-3 in UTA last 10 home games.
  • Over is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings.

    • Finally the Jazz is home and they are going to step up big tonight. They got a slow start in game 2, fell behind by double digit, tried hard to come back and almost made the cover.  Lakers are 6-0 in the playoff but playing away from home especially in Utah is a different story.  If it is a one game that the Jazz have to win, it is this game.  I expect the public rougly 55 to 60% on the Lakers for this game. The Lakers are 6-1 SU against the Jazz which is an important note the one win for the Jazz coming at home against the Lakers on 11/30 when they won 120-96 covering as -7.5 chalks.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Jazz do well tonight and see this game to go over the set total.

    BTW, you can always come back to Covers under different alias in case Utah fails to cover.  The OVER is pretty strong IMHO and I hope you like my goofy friday trend.



    your friday trend is nothing but goofy...in fact i hope it was a joke.  oooo jeopardy, i got a stat for you,  jazz are 13-2 SU when playing the lakers on the 9th day of the month,  butttt it also has to be raining in the home city annnnd....annnnnd, get this, Kobe's gotta be wearing blue underwear.  i know... crazy, but im serious.  gotta bet the jazz tonight with a trend like that

    trends have to have a reason for existing.  o/u's on friday does not
     
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    Posted: #32
    This line is disgusting. I don't know how I can take the Jazz, giving the Lake show 4.5 or probably even 5 points by game time. The way things are going though I do see the Jazz covering.
     
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    Posted: #33
    Im a bit Confused on this thread.  Utah has a GREAT home record, don't get me wrong.  However...the lakers beat UTAH at Home when they had PAO!!!

    Do you guys watch the games?  Boozer looked pathetic in both games.  Lakers are too long on the inside, forcing him to jumpers.  Not his strong suit.  Hes struggling getting boards.  I wouldn't bet money on the three point shot and deron williams...

    Same thing with whats wrong with lebron.  Celtics keep sliding over a big for a contested shot, everytime, and not allowing him to "DUNK". 

    I'll take the Lakers as I think they are the best team in the west by a lot.  Kobe is too good.  Getting the game at +165...thats a steal.

    Utah isn't that good.  Rockets suck and they got pushed to 6 games.  Staring at a home court record in the regular season and betting simply on that is disturbing.  Late game, Utah has Deron williams.  Hes their superstar.  The game will be close.  Kobe should prevail.

    Oh and I like what Phil Jackson said ... "we were never threatened"

    This is a sweep series, leads into the good series of NO/SPURS.  Either team can come out of that one.




     
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    Posted: #34
    Sigh..
     
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    Posted: #35
    you can leave alabama out of the situation honestly has no relevance on anything as i am from alabama
     
    yes favs have dominated the nba playoffs and I think it continues tonite
     
    really like utah to win and win impressively
     
    la is not god and they arent invincible williams and boozer will have big games and show la they are in for a good series
     
    good luck bro
     
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    Posted: #36
    BOL on both sides...

    Lakers ML, Diamondbacks and Brewers for me today.  Brewers only because Im going to the game.  If I wasn't, Id lay off or take STL.  But gotta have more thrill if you are at the game :)
     
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    Posted: #37
    What makes you or anyone else on this forum a superstar?  If you were really out to inform bettors on the best angle for this game I do not think you would have titled this thread in the manner in which you did.  Your opening comment is ridiculous and bares no relevant value into handicapping a game. 
     
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    Posted: #38
    This thread really wasn't necessary, but I get you're trying to make a name for yourself.

    I do see this as one of the best plays of the playoffs so far though, alone with the Spurs -7.5 last night. The Hornets and Lakers have been pretty much the most impressive teams so far so when they are dogs the public pounds them and loses their money.

    Right now I would honestly say it is stupid to play any road team in the playoffs. If you don't like the home teams just don't make a play because road teams are getting destroyed.

    Good luck.
     
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    Posted: #39

    Quote Originally Posted by williamwallace:



    your friday trend is nothing but goofy...in fact i hope it was a joke.  oooo jeopardy, i got a stat for you,  jazz are 13-2 SU when playing the lakers on the 9th day of the month,  butttt it also has to be raining in the home city annnnd....annnnnd, get this, Kobe's gotta be wearing blue underwear.  i know... crazy, but im serious.  gotta bet the jazz tonight with a trend like that

    trends have to have a reason for existing.  o/u's on friday does not

    Seriously, these trends are not mine.  These were taken from USA Today under Sportnews, Scores and Stats.  I wish you could let the newspaper know that they are goofy too.  For thursday night, there was a trend that NO only won 1 out of 10 games (1-9) and it now stands 1-10 after last night.  So, take what it is worth.

    There are people doing nothing in this world but keeping tract of things like how many hairs you lose a day, how much calories you consume in a month, how many millions of Canadian geese migrating to the south during winter months etc, etc.... so I don't find these information useless but they are helpful if you know how and when to apply them.

    Goofy or not goofy, I earned some extra $ for my gas.

     
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    Posted: #40
    Quote Originally Posted by Bugekins:

    Win or Lose on the Jazz covering, it is a terrible bet!!!!
     
    Lakers have won 15 of their last 16 games in a row going back to the regular season, and 10 in a row.....They have yet to lose in the playoffs....They are 6 and 0 and have covered every game they have played in these playoffs....I am not saying to take the Lakers to cover, but if not that, then stay away!
     
    For anyone who is taking the Jazz to cover, you are only assuming because they are down in the series.....But assuming is bad betting!!!   Here are some tips for betting playoff series:
     
    -Dont bet Game 3's
    -Dont ever bet against Kobe
    -Dont ever assume because of home records

     

    According to this the Lakers will not lose another game for the rest of the playoffs.

    Utah it is.

    Best of Luck.

     
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    Posted: #41
    I have no stats on Game 3's.....I just personally stay away from them....They are dangerous plays....I like the Lakers +4.5 tonight but I still am not betting it.......Everyone is saying that they expect Utah to play way better because they are at home (which from their record at home is understandable).....I would usually agree but having watched both those games in LA.....the Lakers totally controlled the entire play for 8 quarters....Granted at times they slipped up a bit, but for the majority of the 8 quarters, they have run their offense to perfection......So IMO, I don't like betting a team based on their home record when they are getting completely outplayed and outcoached so far
     
    When I say do not bet against Kobe, walktheline.....I mean exactly that....I am not saying that Kobe has never lost a game doing what he does or even doing too much......What I am saying is that "its just not a good idea."   I wouldn't like the feeling of your team up by 9 or 10 points coming down to the end and then having KB24 dribbling the ball up.....There is no one on Utah at the SG that can stop him, and he has been getting a lot of calls
     
    10 games in a row they have won up to this point.....And now you not only bet on them losing but expect them to lose by 5?  At the end of the game, you could be right.....but I just think that there will be better bets coming these playoffs
     
    I bet the Lakers to cover the 1st game in LA small.....Then because of what I saw the 1st game, I bet the Lakers to cover in the 2nd big and they did anything they wanted to do.....Now coming this 3rd game in Utah, I am not sure what will happen and that is why I am staying away.....But betting on a team to lose by 5 points after winning 10 in row????   NOT LIKING IT
     
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    Posted: #42
    Quote Originally Posted by jeopardy:

    Seriously, these trends are not mine.  These were taken from USA Today under Sportnews, Scores and Stats.  I wish you could let the newspaper know that they are goofy too.  For thursday night, there was a trend that NO only won 1 out of 10 games (1-9) and it now stands 1-10 after last night.  So, take what it is worth.

    There are people doing nothing in this world but keeping tract of things like how many hairs you lose a day, how much calories you consume in a month, how many millions of Canadian geese migrating to the south during winter months etc, etc.... so I don't find these information useless but they are helpful if you know how and when to apply them.

    Goofy or not goofy, I earned some extra $ for my gas.

    That is all that matters in the end. It was funny yesterday about the Thursday part. Weird? Yes. Effective? It was last night, and 9 other times before that.

     
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    Posted: #43
    GL, I am on the OTHER SIDE once again.
     
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    Posted: #44
    you are going to let kobe suspend you from covers for 30 days?
     
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    Posted: #45
    see ya in june...
     
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    Posted: #46
    Quote Originally Posted by Bugekins:

    I have no stats on Game 3's.....I just personally stay away from them....They are dangerous plays....I like the Lakers +4.5 tonight but I still am not betting it.......Everyone is saying that they expect Utah to play way better because they are at home (which from their record at home is understandable).....I would usually agree but having watched both those games in LA.....the Lakers totally controlled the entire play for 8 quarters....Granted at times they slipped up a bit, but for the majority of the 8 quarters, they have run their offense to perfection......So IMO, I don't like betting a team based on their home record when they are getting completely outplayed and outcoached so far
     
    When I say do not bet against Kobe, walktheline.....I mean exactly that....I am not saying that Kobe has never lost a game doing what he does or even doing too much......What I am saying is that "its just not a good idea."   I wouldn't like the feeling of your team up by 9 or 10 points coming down to the end and then having KB24 dribbling the ball up.....There is no one on Utah at the SG that can stop him, and he has been getting a lot of calls
     
    10 games in a row they have won up to this point.....And now you not only bet on them losing but expect them to lose by 5?  At the end of the game, you could be right.....but I just think that there will be better bets coming these playoffs
     
    I bet the Lakers to cover the 1st game in LA small.....Then because of what I saw the 1st game, I bet the Lakers to cover in the 2nd big and they did anything they wanted to do.....Now coming this 3rd game in Utah, I am not sure what will happen and that is why I am staying away.....But betting on a team to lose by 5 points after winning 10 in row????   NOT LIKING IT

    Now this is what I'm talking about. Hell no I don't want to see Kobe go off at the end of the game, or take it over at any given point. He is one of maybe a dozen in the league that can do it. Utah doesn't have anyone like that. One of my biggest fears tonight. I agree on the coaching as well. Points well taken. Good shit.

     
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    Posted: #47
    Going out to watch the Pens game. I'll see everyone at 11:30, maybe.
     
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    Posted: #48
    see you in a month walktheline when the lakers make the finals!
     
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    Posted: #49
    If they do make the Finals, they will go down to Boston in 6. They will beat the Pistons. They will destroy the Magic. Best of luck to your team.
     
     
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    Posted: #50
    You make a good case for taking the jazz and i respect ur opinion, but why are u whoring for attention? Why make a pointless promise about not posting at covers if u lose? Honestly no one cares whether or not u continue to post. If u wanna discuss games then fine, but you're not as important as u think u are. With that said, GL on your jazz bet
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