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How bookies calculated spread and total points??

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Posted: #26
Redskins touchdowns, I mean. 
 
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Posted: #27
No bashing, no nothing but IF I knew that, I will be working as oddsmaker and IF I know this matter and don't work for the oddsmaker, I will be one hell of rich man betting and selling picks.  WITHOUT A DOUBT. Just my 2cents.
 
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Posted: #28
1st of all sports books dont make huge profits in vegas they actually lose money sometimes.. vegas was built on the one sided casino games where the odds are hugely in the housees favor not to mention the slots which i belive pay out and somethingb like single digits to the player.. sports books are mostly there to lure bettors to the other more profitable games.. i mean roulette is so largely slanted towards the house the players have no chance of winning consistently  where as some sports handicappers can hit at 55-60 percent. not a big deal but not like playing roulete or slots.. as for the totals on games you just need to go to the covers site and look up a teams offensive average points at home versus the visitors defensive points allowed on road and vice a versa . that will give you a pretty close number.. if you factor in recent trends and injuries you will see its not magic.. for example tonite san vs atl  san averages 101.5 on offense while atl averages giving up 99.6 per game therefore statistically san should get very close to their average of 100 or so pts.. then atl averages 98.7 while spurs only allow 92 pts per game so that comes to atl scoring avout 94 or 95..  that would make the total about 195.. factor in spurs home court and the fact that they have been scoring high numbers last fewgames and you can easily see why the total on the game is 197.5..thats kinda as easy as it gets..you can do this with every game.. if you find a huge difference in the actual number vs the posted number then you play accordingly...the jazz houst game comes out 106-96 by averages.. the total is 202.5..i hope that explains it.. ps the same holds true for the nfl..

 
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Posted: #29
That is so wrong! I mean, numbers are obviously close to that since that's what "average" means but that's not how linemakers come up with the numbers...
 
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Posted: #30
I think too,  it is more complicated that just calculate average scores teams . I had already see offer job about trader for this function and theyr didn't ask to have necessary sports knowledge, is just considering " a plus" so they tasks is analysing the risk and try to manage it with mathématics.
 
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Posted: #31
Does the debate is over?
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by dangerfields:

1st of all sports books dont make huge profits in vegas they actually lose money sometimes.. vegas was built on the one sided casino games where the odds are hugely in the housees favor not to mention the slots which i belive pay out and somethingb like single digits to the player.. sports books are mostly there to lure bettors to the other more profitable games.. i mean roulette is so largely slanted towards the house the players have no chance of winning consistently  where as some sports handicappers can hit at 55-60 percent. not a big deal but not like playing roulete or slots.. as for the totals on games you just need to go to the covers site and look up a teams offensive average points at home versus the visitors defensive points allowed on road and vice a versa . that will give you a pretty close number.. if you factor in recent trends and injuries you will see its not magic.. for example tonite san vs atl  san averages 101.5 on offense while atl averages giving up 99.6 per game therefore statistically san should get very close to their average of 100 or so pts.. then atl averages 98.7 while spurs only allow 92 pts per game so that comes to atl scoring avout 94 or 95..  that would make the total about 195.. factor in spurs home court and the fact that they have been scoring high numbers last fewgames and you can easily see why the total on the game is 197.5..thats kinda as easy as it gets..you can do this with every game.. if you find a huge difference in the actual number vs the posted number then you play accordingly...the jazz houst game comes out 106-96 by averages.. the total is 202.5..i hope that explains it.. ps the same holds true for the nfl..


He is correct.

Sportsbooks in Vegas really started out as an amenity to the gambler who'd make their way to the tables.

Illegal bookies, back in the day, used Vegas' lines and typically pumped up the juice to say -120 per bet and also had other ways to screw you like, ties lose, to profit over the long term.

After the age of the Internet started, these lines became MUCH sharper and the sharpest in the business are in the NFL (biggest handle).

Having said that, our minds tend to reason that a line is what it should be and if we don't agree we are afraid of a 'trap.'

While this can be true for very sharp lines, books just can't consistently make sharp lines for every game every night especially in college basketball and some lowly conference game.

So you can find value in lines and yes some are WAY off at times but that is all about the definition of what a line is to you.

If a line it 'true' to you, that is, it represents what the difference in the final score will be close to, you take the points or bet against them.

If a line is just a 'betting line', that is, a line for the public to balance action, unless it's big, you largely disregard it and take the team you believe will win outright with the spread having little effect on the outcome.
 
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Posted: #33
Take the 2 teams playing for any given game, look at the last 5 previous matchups then look at the scores. Total the teams respective averages then combine the 2 to get the total. Its usually pretty close
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by drudatt108:

Take the 2 teams playing for any given game, look at the last 5 previous matchups then look at the scores. Total the teams respective averages then combine the 2 to get the total. Its usually pretty close



only last 5 games for each teams or  last 5 with specifically Home/away results ?  

we need to take care about home /away results for me...

The problem is with your suggestin about last 5 is the shedule because imagine the team have played 5 small team and they scored a  lot again them and the next game they will play A big team, the total pts for them will be not nearly the average of last5 because they play an other level team s it is discutable..
 
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Posted: #35
 
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Posted: #36
You can't have too much faith into getting the full system told on a website like this. There's a lot of great ideas and thoughts - some better than others - but you will never really know if you are told the truth.

Try it out yourself. There's a reason why some bettors go for YEARS to figure out their own system, and it's probably not close to 100 percent the same system that is used by linesmakers.


Create your own system. You decide how much homecourt advantage means in points, injuries, streaks and form (e.g. last 5 or 10), past meetings etc.

I hope it'll all work out for you 


 
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Posted: #37
perhaps some expert wrote book that explain the possible method use by bookmaker?  if you know book title please let me know
 
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Posted: #38

One point I always raise here that no one has ever answered is this.

When you look ahead to games the following day, you might see a game that has no odds on it yet. This is because a key player is in doubt. This key player will make a difference to the line, so the bookmaker maker waits until they get confirmation on wether he is in or out. Fair enough.

But what is alarming is, the bookmaker puts up a market, say 6-7 hours before the game starts, with the line reflecting wether the player is playing or not.

Yet, when you search all the outlets, rotoworld, the teams official twitter account, the teams website which contains interviews with the coaches on the day of the game, they all say, player X (key player) is " a game time decision", "we will give him every moment to play"....

So, how the f##ck does the bookmaker know if player X is playing before everyone else, especially if that player is a game time decision.

Doesn't anyone find this alarming? what else does the bookmaker know that the general public don't know.

Luol Deng is the leading scorer for the Bulls. Of course wether he plays or not is going to impact the line. Everywhere you look, he was doubtful, but NOT rules out, yet the bookmaker created a market that reflected he was not playing, well well before the official announcement before from the club.

I am surprised no one has picked up on this.

 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by jcho_picks:

REFEREES AND VEGAS GET TOGETHER AND FIGURE IT OUT


 
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Posted: #40
What does a sportsbook in Vegas Make, The hold anyone know..
 
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Posted: #41
Think about it logically! That's exactly what oddsmakers do when they build these lines! Teams, home away factor, recent performance, injuries. It's just that only the best decide. 
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by HoldingXYZ:

For the Nfl ,, they usually just put -3 for the home teams in general.. Major injuries related to qbs and known players have + -... The reason why you won't find the exact forumula is because sometimes vegas uses an incorrect number just to throw people off from time to time... Or they throw a good number out there knowing that people will take that side which is the same side as the loser... In week13 alot of people took kc +6.5 for instance... But i guess Manning is the one that's more respected in the league and he costs alot more money,, therfore he has to make it high into the rankings... Its very situational when you talk about capping for pro football... For nba totals are easy to figure out because the betting is so much more spread out... One bad number in the nfl can costs millions even when both opponents playing suck lol... And if you notice those 1/2 points are so common... They are getting alot more control ,, i can say this much... Down to the science perhaps
Vegas doesn't trick people! Never! 
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by dangerfields:

1st of all sports books dont make huge profits in vegas they actually lose money sometimes.. vegas was built on the one sided casino games where the odds are hugely in the housees favor not to mention the slots which i belive pay out and somethingb like single digits to the player.. sports books are mostly there to lure bettors to the other more profitable games.. i mean roulette is so largely slanted towards the house the players have no chance of winning consistently  where as some sports handicappers can hit at 55-60 percent. not a big deal but not like playing roulete or slots.. as for the totals on games you just need to go to the covers site and look up a teams offensive average points at home versus the visitors defensive points allowed on road and vice a versa . that will give you a pretty close number.. if you factor in recent trends and injuries you will see its not magic.. for example tonite san vs atl  san averages 101.5 on offense while atl averages giving up 99.6 per game therefore statistically san should get very close to their average of 100 or so pts.. then atl averages 98.7 while spurs only allow 92 pts per game so that comes to atl scoring avout 94 or 95..  that would make the total about 195.. factor in spurs home court and the fact that they have been scoring high numbers last fewgames and you can easily see why the total on the game is 197.5..thats kinda as easy as it gets..you can do this with every game.. if you find a huge difference in the actual number vs the posted number then you play accordingly...the jazz houst game comes out 106-96 by averages.. the total is 202.5..i hope that explains it.. ps the same holds true for the nfl..

Yup. That sounds about correct. Casinos make money for Vegas. Sports less so. 
 
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Posted: #44
Can anyone confirm this with some legit numbers. I read few years back, actual numbers, who makes what by sector in Vegas. Sportsbooks made waaaaay least money. 
 
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Posted: #45
I've been in Vegas practically my entire life. 
The sportsbooks Hold is 6-9 % 

That's the Numbers from the Gaming control board... 

Most years 6-7%

Funny seems like more than that, to some people  



 
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Posted: #46
Power Ratings

They adjust +/- based on current form from teams in question, injuries, back to back, revenge, letdown, look ahead, etc.

The problem with 99% of gamblers is that they think the line does not count towards all this. Books already do most of the job for us. 

The line is created for create equal amount of action.



 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by LVTruck:

I've been in Vegas practically my entire life. 
The sportsbooks Hold is 6-9 % 

That's the Numbers from the Gaming control board... 

Most years 6-7%

Funny seems like more than that, to some people  



Alright. Fain enough. Thanks.
It's logic. Slot machines is pure luck. It's gambling at its finest. PURE GAMBLING. Sports betting is more like investing. Just on much more risk due to higher odds.
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:

Power Ratings

They adjust +/- based on current form from teams in question, injuries, back to back, revenge, letdown, look ahead, etc.

The problem with 99% of gamblers is that they think the line does not count towards all this. Books already do most of the job for us. 

The line is created for create equal amount of action.



Yup. I agree. I am not even pro when it comes to lines. I am just adding comments what i know. I don't make up lines. I only bet games here and there. But that makes logic sense. I only use logic here.
 
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Posted: #49
Yes lines are "generally" created for equal balance... Which is why you have to watch line movement,, book makers do not always know which direction the lines will move... Theres tons of fishy lines,, i have a database full of them... Not only that,, you will notice on certain games the public pounds one side and the lines do not move at all,, this is when you have to watch the juice,, its not always a bright idea to by early most of the times i get in the last second... 
 
 
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Posted: #50
IF lines doesn't move as it have betters on a side is because it has not enought money on this side to move the lines
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