FINAL thoughts Game 3

The line absolutely sucks if you are backing the Knicks. One would think -5.5 or even 6 after first two wins. Just for clarity, line opened at -1.5 and hung around -2 or -2.5 at most books with pretty much 50/50 split now via Action Network. 

After disecting both the Knicks and Spurs game play, inexperience of the "moment" has hurt the Spurs while the Knicks have taken advantage of crucial mistakes.

How many more times will we see the same type of fouls on the perimeter by the Spurs after playing 20 seconds of lockdown defense only to give up 3 free throws after a frivolous foul (Castle, Vassell). When will the Spurs dominate the paint instead of crowning themsleves 3pt champs of the Finals? When will we see Dylan Harper in crunch time? FOX has struggled, but does make up bad shooting with good defense. In both games, Spurs up early and gave the game away, mostly because the Knicks do not give up and no matter what the lead. 

For the Spurs to win

1. Keep playing defense to create offense 

2. Dominate the paint and get KAT, Robinson in foul trouble. So many outlet passes after being 5 feet from the basket is excruciating to watch. 

3. Stop biting in pump fakes esp. when shot clock is under 5 sec.

4. Mitch Johnson play the best performing players and not stick with the same rotation. The Knicks are smart in seeing the same picture different day. 

5. Wemby,  please receive the ball in the post, not perimeter. Dribble penitration is not your strength. Knicks are defending pick and rolls well, so change your game up...2 or 3 made 3pters will not win the game. 20 points in the post will win the game and get some guys in foul trouble. 

6. Fox needs to get Wemby involved and others First. Get 2-4 guys to touch the ball before a shot is taken. Streetball will not win. 

For the Knicks to win

1. Continue to play dominating defense with Hart the igniter. Anunoby!!!

2. Continue to rest Brunson and KAT for the 4th. Bench has stepped up with McBride and Shamet. Keep cancer Clarkson on the bench.

3. Stay physical in the paint, esp. KAT and dominate paint. 

4. Brunson is the key to victory. Experience and veteran leadership is on their side. The Knicks are a better managed team at this point.

5. Keep Wemby out of rythym, showing different looks and help defense. I am positive Knicks will live with the Spurs 3pt shooting as long as the interior defends paint. 

6. Knicks don't give up. Down 12, 8, or 23 it doesn't matter. Punch, counter punch..Knicks have the mental advantage up to this point. This attitude is what wins championships. 

I'm sure a missed a few more points, the meat of my synopsis is clear. The line still sucks for a Knicks backer. Vegas does not give away free money.

I was on Knicks, Knicks 2h, game 1. Spurs and Knicks 2h, under 220.5 in game, game 2.

Game 3 ? Still deciding. SPURS should be the side, but is it? 

More later. Thought's welcome...

Game 2 was suppose to be Spurs and the series should have been tied one a piece going to New York if not for Wemby's bad pass to Castle(Although Mitch should also have called time out to set up a good play for them to execute  the last shot properly). and of course the poor execution at the buzzer, Wemby's chosen to take a jumper instead of driving to the hoop to get a better shot and possibly get fouled.

The Knicks know this that the last few seconds in game 2 luck was at their side so I think Knicks will be very aggressive coming into game 3. They won't allow a slight momentum for Spurs to get back on this series if Spurs get game 3. Game 4 will be different depends on the outcome of game 3. 

@tweets50

 Vegas needs Knicks money.

The opening odds on the Spurs to win the Championship was 66X1

There are plenty of million dollar tickets out there.

That being said, the book only cares about handle, that's all. their job is to generate handle, not choose a side; steer, maybe. They do extremely well at doing that.

Its a major PsyOps

Game 1 was a 1-point game at the final 2 minutes.  Game 2 was a 1-point game at the final 2.5 minutes. Grab the 2.5 points and cross your fingers. 

@tweets50 

I keep waiting for the adjustment for Wemby to play a little more in the paint and stop every play sitting on the perimeter. I get spacing the floor but every damn play starts like a shooting guard. It’s a joke. Mitch Johnson is getting schooled.

It’s a lot easier to defend when you know what he’s doing each possession. I went back and watched film and they double team and collapse on him when he starts to drive like clockwork. Did the same shit vs OKC all 7 games but NY is ready. Attack the  hoop, post up once in a while, and for the love of god go at Kat to get him in foul trouble. Nope. 

They also need to play faster as well. 

 . . . . Either way  

@tweets50

 Nice. San ML. GL

@aireent777

 I agree, but it would be much easier if the ball was fed to him in the post. You have two options 7 feet away from the basket with a quick move to the basket or a jump shot. Why is he afraid of Kat and Robinson? Wemby should not be handling the ball as a point guard ajd Mitch is allowing it. 

@MrFreedo

 WAITING VS WILL IT HAPPEN? a lot of us see the potential in the Spurs with this lineup and yes, Mitch is getting schooled. Maybe that's part of the process just to make it to the finals, and build for next year...OR Wemby is not a generational player and we are overthinking his skills and potential top. 

I am confirming the NBA is getting boring to watch with all the outlet passes just taking 3pts shots. Where is the strategy of dominating the paint vs the 3pt line. 

@TJZags598

 I think you underestimate east coast money. Although the Spurs have a huge preseason payout 66-1 which I threw away 300 on, the Knicks series winner for the Championship has attracted huge $. I think the books are rooting for the Spurs. I am only speculating after hearing some bookmakers on VSIN. This is a lose lose for the books imo.

With that being said, No matter where you think the money is going, you should pick the side that settles right in your mind. Favorites do win and dogs do win at a smaller clip. When i was younger, I was a "Dog" bettor and hardly picked favorites, if any at all. Lol. . Understand the lines and what Vegas is giving you and make a good decision.  

-2 Knicks is a square line and is it a trap? I hardly ever take -2 in a NBA game. We will see. 

@fts1409

 Good luck my friend

I also want to add that not only are the Spurs down 0-2, they have not won at MSG since the finals in 1999. Talk about their backs against the wall. Yet line is -2. 

@tweets50

 Well the line was -6.5 at spurs home court, so if you factor in the home court advantage, in theory the line should be a pick em at knicks, so -2 for knicks is about fair given the public perception of the game thus far.  What's wrong with the line for knicks -2 when it shoulda been at pick em?

@skn02

I agree, and I'm going to add something which makes your argument even  more right on. The opening line for game 2 was Spurs -5.5. It was pushed to -6.5 by the heavy Spurs action. The outcome proved the books' opening number was the more valid number, and the Knicks -2 line for game 3 is based on the game 2 number of Spurs -5.5, and is thus right on, assuming no adjustment in the relative strength of the teams is needed.

It looks to me that the books feel no adjustment is needed, that the Spurs are still the better team, and just need to clean things up and make adjustments, which the books are anticipating they will accomplish. That's just my two cents.

^ which the books anticipate they will accomplish, or at least believe the public perception is that the Spurs will accomplish that.

@tweets50

 I dont underestimate any money. I deal in hard core facts. I used to work in Vegas, and my connections are pretty solid.

The exposure on the Spurs is real. There is a reason why the odds dived from 66-1 all the way down to 2.5 to 1 recently.

I bought the spurs for 66 to 1.

I also bout the Knicks at 11 to 1

I have the Knicks to beat spurs at 12 to 1.

@Stew Baker

@skn02

Good thread, am on Spurs contrary to what many others believe that they have packed it in,and can’t handle the Knicks.Many  thought the same in the Thunder series when they showed their resiliency,won’t say they’re going to win the series  but tonight will be the gut check

I was on the fence for the longest time with this game. But the glaring disconnect in Spurs ML betting - 35% of the bets and 63% of the money hit home. What clinched the Spurs side for was the Knicks backers getting cocky and acting like a sweep was a foregone conclusion.

Thanks for the great feedback all. 

SPURS +2 -108.

If at any time the Knicks "control" the game, 2H may be an option. 

BoL 

Congratulations Spurs Backers and 2nd Half backers!!!

 #12 @tweets50

@tweets50

@tweets50

 Spurs ML Game 4...Knicks -2 again......nice capping...

@Macwestie1

 Back at you!

@lmb4321

 Thanks bro. keep winning.