This may be a sh*tty game to bet on but I think I have the right angle here. Tail it if you like.
I know Philly has some key injuries to J.Richardson and T.Young but that isn't the point here. The point is Collins will incorporate Jeremy Pargo into the lineup and at times may play him along side Jrue Holiday and N.Young. So, what does that mean? That means speed will be a factor in this game and the pace may be just as fast as last nights game in Charlotte. Turner has struggled only scoring 20 in his last 4 but I see him turning things around a bit against a team he had 25 & 10 respectively on Nov. 30. Charlotte has allowed its last 5 opponents to shoot 51.7% from the field. They're also on a b2b and I don't see why Phi would play a slow methodical game when they have fresh legs and injuries to one of their key perimeter shooters. Philly has only giving up 78.3ppg over their last 4 but you can throw those numbers out the window since Philly's lineup will be tweaked a bit, Charlotte is on a b2b, and Charlotte always seems to push the tempo.
“A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
This may be a sh*tty game to bet on but I think I have the right angle here. Tail it if you like.
I know Philly has some key injuries to J.Richardson and T.Young but that isn't the point here. The point is Collins will incorporate Jeremy Pargo into the lineup and at times may play him along side Jrue Holiday and N.Young. So, what does that mean? That means speed will be a factor in this game and the pace may be just as fast as last nights game in Charlotte. Turner has struggled only scoring 20 in his last 4 but I see him turning things around a bit against a team he had 25 & 10 respectively on Nov. 30. Charlotte has allowed its last 5 opponents to shoot 51.7% from the field. They're also on a b2b and I don't see why Phi would play a slow methodical game when they have fresh legs and injuries to one of their key perimeter shooters. Philly has only giving up 78.3ppg over their last 4 but you can throw those numbers out the window since Philly's lineup will be tweaked a bit, Charlotte is on a b2b, and Charlotte always seems to push the tempo.
This total is set almost 20 points lower than the Cha/LA game. One key reason is that the public would generally think the pace of this game would be slower verse Philly. Another reason is that the public loves to pound Unders in games with key injuries which has not proven to be successful. The oddsmakers have also had this total set as high as 190 from what I've seen and it has dropped almost 3 points since with a heavy dose of the public bettors hammering the Under.
“A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
This total is set almost 20 points lower than the Cha/LA game. One key reason is that the public would generally think the pace of this game would be slower verse Philly. Another reason is that the public loves to pound Unders in games with key injuries which has not proven to be successful. The oddsmakers have also had this total set as high as 190 from what I've seen and it has dropped almost 3 points since with a heavy dose of the public bettors hammering the Under.
I understand your reasoning and it is sound. My question is why does Vegas open the total at 189 or 190? Cha gives up points, no secret there. In the past month there were only 2 other instances where Cha total has opened under 190...@bulls and vs Indy which both opened at 185 (2 excellent defenses).
The total is set low because it should be. Both offenses are at the bottom of the league in efficiency and overall production. Add in a OK defensive Philly Defensive team and a tired CHA team and this seems like a pretty honest line.
I like your info, just discussing the total peaks my interest.
I understand your reasoning and it is sound. My question is why does Vegas open the total at 189 or 190? Cha gives up points, no secret there. In the past month there were only 2 other instances where Cha total has opened under 190...@bulls and vs Indy which both opened at 185 (2 excellent defenses).
The total is set low because it should be. Both offenses are at the bottom of the league in efficiency and overall production. Add in a OK defensive Philly Defensive team and a tired CHA team and this seems like a pretty honest line.
I like your info, just discussing the total peaks my interest.
@ISeeTotals You have a valid point but the way I see it is this. The oddsmakers set a high total because it is the perfect situation. At 190 anyone would take Under. When there's key injuries in games the public pounds Unders. I used to do it and it never really worked for me. Efficiency gets thrown out the window in this situation for me due to Collins tweaking the lineup. Yes Phi plays defense but if I feel the tempo will increase in this game then obviously I see more buckets, more 2nd chance opportunities and players moving up and down the court quickly. One thing I know about Charlotte is they never seem to slow down for anyone. Just hoping they make enough buckets in this one.
“A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
@ISeeTotals You have a valid point but the way I see it is this. The oddsmakers set a high total because it is the perfect situation. At 190 anyone would take Under. When there's key injuries in games the public pounds Unders. I used to do it and it never really worked for me. Efficiency gets thrown out the window in this situation for me due to Collins tweaking the lineup. Yes Phi plays defense but if I feel the tempo will increase in this game then obviously I see more buckets, more 2nd chance opportunities and players moving up and down the court quickly. One thing I know about Charlotte is they never seem to slow down for anyone. Just hoping they make enough buckets in this one.
I also think this a good spot for Turner to end his struggles. He had 25pts and 10reb in their last meeting. I know I mentioned this above but that is a huge difference in comparison to his 20pts in his last 4 games total. If this one goes Under it will be close. But I don't see it that way.
“A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
I also think this a good spot for Turner to end his struggles. He had 25pts and 10reb in their last meeting. I know I mentioned this above but that is a huge difference in comparison to his 20pts in his last 4 games total. If this one goes Under it will be close. But I don't see it that way.
Richardson and Young actually slow the game down IMO. What's Richardson's 3pt shooting percentage anyway? Can't be that high or else they'd be winning games.
“A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
Richardson and Young actually slow the game down IMO. What's Richardson's 3pt shooting percentage anyway? Can't be that high or else they'd be winning games.
I guess my point was that the line is set LOW for a Cha game. In my experience the line is set low for a reason - Vegas hoping people will hop on the over. More jumped on the Under pushing the line down to 187.
I don't think the public is heavy on the under because of injury. It's probably a product of 5 of last 6 Cha games have gone under and 5 of the last 6 Philly games have gone under.
I guess my point was that the line is set LOW for a Cha game. In my experience the line is set low for a reason - Vegas hoping people will hop on the over. More jumped on the Under pushing the line down to 187.
I don't think the public is heavy on the under because of injury. It's probably a product of 5 of last 6 Cha games have gone under and 5 of the last 6 Philly games have gone under.
@Iseetotals Agreed. That is also a very good reason why. Bol as well. You're doing a pretty good job on those totals as well. I like when we agree more though.
@Gearsofwar I just may do that. But you never know which Bobcat team will show up and with Collins tweaking things up over in Phi you never know either. That's why I have my eye on this total. Trying to finish the card up.
“A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
@Iseetotals Agreed. That is also a very good reason why. Bol as well. You're doing a pretty good job on those totals as well. I like when we agree more though.
@Gearsofwar I just may do that. But you never know which Bobcat team will show up and with Collins tweaking things up over in Phi you never know either. That's why I have my eye on this total. Trying to finish the card up.
have to figure 76ers will put up 100 points against a bad char that has allowed an average of 105 points in their past 5 away games. the cats DO NOT STOP coming lol don't think the b2b will factor in too much ..over
have to figure 76ers will put up 100 points against a bad char that has allowed an average of 105 points in their past 5 away games. the cats DO NOT STOP coming lol don't think the b2b will factor in too much ..over
Not disagreeing with your pick but the public does not move a line 3 points. Big money does. Sharps, Wise guys, or whatever you want to call them or maybe inside info; who knows. Higher % of people on a bet does not equate to more money.
Not disagreeing with your pick but the public does not move a line 3 points. Big money does. Sharps, Wise guys, or whatever you want to call them or maybe inside info; who knows. Higher % of people on a bet does not equate to more money.
Golfing I know this. That is why I don't fade public plays without doing some research first. Regardless we don't know what the public is betting so we make an educated guess.
“A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
Golfing I know this. That is why I don't fade public plays without doing some research first. Regardless we don't know what the public is betting so we make an educated guess.
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