Record: 22-25
The pick:
Bucks +6 over Raptors
The Bucks will not only play this game extremely close, they have a great shot at winning it.
That makes +6 a MONSTER SPREAD and far too much for this Raptors team to be giving up at this point in the series.
So why are they giving it up? Because the books can't help but make standard adjustments from road to home. In this case that is 8.5 points off the closing line of Bucks -2.5 in Game 4. But there is so much more internally going on here that points to a Bucks cover, if not an outright win.
1. Playing ugly
Did you watch Game 4? What a shi*fest of below average basketball. You always have to worry about these afternoon starts (2pm in Milwaukee) and how teams can come out flat after playing virtually the entire season at 7 and 7:30.
And came out flat they did. The Raps shot 41% and 22% from three. The Bucks shot 37% and 23% from 3.
This is just the way the Raps like it. Lowry and Derozan have two of the lowest shooting percentages in the playoffs given the number of games they've played in (under 40%). This is even more alarming given these are really the primary (and at times only) scoring options for the Raps. So when they are off, the team implodes, as was exhibited last game in the Bucks blowout by 27.
So what was the difference in the final score? Free throws and Jonas Valanciunis who was 5-5 from the floor with 12 points.
As the game progressed the Raps played it just the way they like it: Close to the vest and try pull away late. They were successful in doing so. This doesn't work often, particularly in playoff series when teams make adjustments from game to game.
The Bucks came out flat as did Giannis, and worse, he went completely cold in the 4th quarter. The Raps with Derozan and Lowry and suddenly revived a Valanciunis circa 2014 when he was decent and starting and they had enough to make the box score seem convincing for the this spread.
2. Alarming problems for the Raps going forward and advantages for the Bucks
A) Derozan was coming off a 0-8 game. History has dictated Derozan bounces back huge the next game, particularly in the playoffs. This will not happen two games in a row, that is, him going for 33 and accounting for more than 1/3 of the entire offense. That is not sustainable.
That means the weight shifts back to Lowry. I simply don't see the killer instinct in anymore, nor do I see the consistency. He had a dud the first game with 4 points and an underwhelming 13 points in the 27 point blowout. Most of Lowry's offense here came on the back of Derozan (i.e., if Derozan isn't playing a high level, we simply can't depend on Lowry to here).
B) Ibaka was absolutely dreadful for the second game in a row.
NO shooting touch whatsoever. Perhaps this had something to do with him taking an elbow to the face early in the game. Over two games now he's 7-24 for 16 pts and only 2 FT's. That's a liability if there isn't a big bounceback in Game 5. He seems out of sorts in this offense, particularly when Derozan starts to ISO.
C) Snell is getting whatever he wants from 3.
The Bucks simply can't guard him on the perimeter. The spacing is obscene when he shoots the ball where there isn't a defender within 3 to 5 feet. 5-10 from three this game and 13-26 for the series. If the Bucks need a big shot, he will give it to them and he'll likely be open.
D) The Bucks length
It's brutally obvious and something the Raps have struggled with the entire series. On the defensive end the Bucks are blocking more shots (particularly key ones) and contesting far more, disrupting drives and making the Raps force shots. On the offensive end, when needed the offensive rebounding is prevalent.
During one sequence at the 8 minute mark in the fourth, the Bucks got SIX offensive rebounds on one possession before scoring. Monroe, Giannis, and Maker are overpowering the Raps defensively/blocking shots, and grabbing loose balls, and intercepting passes as well in O-rebounding.
This will continue.
What's the end result, a TIGHT game where the Raps have demonstrated they don't respond in kind to their fans passion (as noted, 0-9 in the first game in the first round, which typically has been at home in recent years).
Kidd, for whatever lack of respect he has around the league, is a great coach for the Bucks. He has the NBA pedigree as one of the great PG's to have played the game and knows how to relate to the younger players, particularly Giannis. You can see how he let's Giannis, Maker and Brogdon have the freedom to play their games. That matters in this league.
Casey? Well he's been in this spot before and the results have been unspectacular. If not for a Lowry jumper with 8 seconds in Game 2, contested by Brogdon, the Bucks could have swept the first two, I wouldn't want to give out a single point with the Raps in this spot so I'll take every one.
We don't have to win here, just hope the Raps continue to ugly it up (which the Bucks can pull away from) and use the full strength of the six in a close one or at best, an upset.
And what's the wildcard?
3. The Refs
They called ticky-tack fouls on the Bucks in the 4th ensuring this series got tied up.
But from an Adam Silver conspiratorial perspective, the Bucks are simply the better story and more interesting to the average fan with the rise of Giannis (and some of Maker) and Kidd as a chess piece. The Raps have been here done that and this is becoming old hat to the fan and the league. So if there is a wink and a nod from Silver, it would be having the refs give a favorable call or two more to the Bucks when it counts. It's conjecture and we don't cap on this but it is a theme that can play itself out to get us a cover.
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