Playoffs 4-1 +$7,700.00
Boston +8 -105 vs. Miami to win 3 dimes
Before I get asked, I have no opinion or play on the total. This total is tight and I don’t really see an edge to be had.
Much of what I will say will probably repeat the rationale behind my game 3 play on the Celtics. Mind you game 3 was a play on the Celtics because in large part they were coming home for game 3 down 2-0 in the series and they came out with fire in their veins. Since then though they have done a fantastic job of continuing to shut down Miami and despite the fact they let a big lead slip away against the Heat in game 4, the end result is what matters.
They were able to outlast the Heat and earn the win to tie the series. The edge now lies with the Celtics. They have all the momentum. Historically that momentum has showed to be a money maker for bettors. Here’s a Heat team that lost games 3 and 4 after winning the first two at home, similar to the Spurs situation last night. The difference is that the Heat are laying a lot of wood tonight. So how do big home playoff favorites do in these spots? Going back the last 5 seasons, playoff home favourites of 7 or more points off back to back losses are 0-5 ATS. Again, in my view, this is a a by-product of a significant momentum shift.
I also try to look at the games individually. As I noted in my game 3 write up, the Celtics won every quarter in game 2 except for the 3rd. It was that 1 poor quarter in which the Heat came out of the locker room and scored 35 points that killed the game for the Celtics. That’s how close this series is to being 3-1 for Boston.
The Heat shot 50% in game one and were outshot in game 2. Do you really think that the Heat will shoot 50% tonight? I don’t. Not the way Boston has started to rev up their defensive game. In game 2 Boston shot 49% compared to the Heat’s 44%. They shot 89% from the free throw line compared to the Heat’s 65% but what did them in was shooting from beyond the arc. Keep this in mind though, over the course of the season the Celtics shot better from 3 point land and defended better from beyond the arc than the Heat so again, that game two 3 point shooting number for the Heat is an anomaly, not the norm. To give you an idea of how inconsistent the Heat can be they only shot 50% from the free throw line in game 3. Ugly. Even game 4 saw the Heat barely outshoot the Celtics (42% vs 41%). Free throws were even at 70% and the Celtics were 9 for 27 from 3 point land (33%) compared to the Heat’s 6 for 19 (31%). That was the difference. See how close those stats were? The game at the end could have gone either way. But it went to the Celtics.
As I noted in the game 3 selection, we have to remember that the Celtics went 3-1 SU against the Heat during the regular season. They shot 51.7% from behind the arc in those 4 games, far above their season average of 36.7%. They had better free throw percentages over the course of the year and in the head to head meetings. In a game in which I expect to be tight, again, that better free throw shooting could be the difference. It’s amazing how one or two missed free throws affect the ATS result. Over the last 5 games the Celtics have shot a full 10% better from the charity stripe.
Boston was second in the league on defense this season, limiting opponents to 89 ppg against. That’s 3 points better than Miami. Miami scored more points per game but as I indicated, the Heat still dropped 3 of 4 games to the Celtics in the regular season. The Celtics CAN beat the Heat. There can be no debating that. If winning 5 of the 8 meetings so far this season isn’t proof enough than what is? The best part is, the Celtics who are 5-3 SU against the Heat this year don’t even HAVE to win this game .. we are bettors here … not fans … we just want them to cover the 8 right? So let's look at what us bettors look at.
Given the performances on 1 day’s rest this year the advantages all lie with the Celtics who have shown this year that their elder statesmen can handle the grind. They have gone 22-10 ATS their last 32 games with only 1 day’s rest. That’s an ATS win ratio of 69%. Within that ATS win percentage lies a 12-4 ATS mark when grabbing points (75% ATS win rate) and 6-1 ATS or 86% ATS win percentage as dogs of 4 or more coming off 1 day’s rest.
How have the public darlings in Miami done in contrast when playing with 1 day’s rest? A very poor 6-16-1 ATS or 27% ATS win percentage. Within that number if they played that game vs. an opponent off a win they went to 2-11 ATS or they covered the spread only 15% of the time. You really want to lay 8 points against those kinds of numbers? I don’t and I won’t.
The Bosh factor doesn’t bother me tonight. This Celtics team has shown they can be any line-up in the NBA and coming off an extended rest may actually do more to Miami re-adjusting than fool this Veteran Boston line-up. He played in 3 of the 4 regular season matchups and scored 4 in one, 13 in the other (both loses) and 18 in the only regular season win that the Celtics had vs. Miami in the regular season.
This is a Boston team that has proven it can cover the number against the NBA’s best going 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 against opposition with a winning percentage of .600 or better. These Vet’s on Boston simply know how to get it done.
Recapping shall we?
The Celtics have shown they are the better team vs. the Heat over the course of the regular season (5-3 SU) and statistically, over the course of the playoffs in the real stats that count. They play better as a team and in my view, are more mature and it shows on the court. They shoot better from the free throw line and as I have often repeated in this write up, I expect the free throw line to be the difference in what I expect to be a very tight game. We must consider that edge. They defended better over the course of the regular season and this veteran line-up has “been here and done that” enough times to lend weight to their ability to get it done.
They clearly have the momentum and the COACHING advantage.
Celtics +8 -105 to win 3 dimes.
PS: I might make some in game bets as I usually do depending on how the game takes shape but those will never be counted against my record because they won't get posted.
Good luck everyone and enjoy the game. Feel free to discuss.
fever