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Bodio's 2010-2011 NBA Finals PREVIEW and pick for game 1

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by pucwreck:

Bodio,

Do you think Chris Bosh will score more than 19 pts in Gm1?  I'm thinking the Under 19 has some value. 

Aloha!

Hmmm... that's an interesting one.  At first glance, I don't think he would, but then again Miami will want to make Dirk exert energy on D.  
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by EDDIEW:

very disappointed bodio One of the top cappers and you couldn't find a side to wager on in the biggest series of the year?? Not even a small bet?

Nope.  Sometimes being a good handicapper is knowing when NOT to wager (at least that's what I believe).  No need to bet every series or every side/total.  Like my analysis indicates, I just don't see a solid enough angle to back either team for the full series.  Better plays will be available on a game by game basis. 

  I do have a play today and it's the UNDER.  For me that's enough.  
 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by jdukes0004:

Hey Bodio, the under is a great play because:  All teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in the nba finals the under is   40-8 since 1996.

Really?!?  Where did you find that trend?
 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:

Great analysis buddy...I'm still torn how to play out my Mavs future..may ride it and hedge later on depending on how the series is going. GL on that Under tonight.



Just ride it!  Too many people worry about 'hedging' plays when they didn't plan to do so initially.  If someone makes a futures play without accounting for 'hedging', it's best to just let it play out.  If Dallas wins today, then you'll have a nice 'hedging' opportunity without risking a lot of juice, though I would argue that if Dallas wins tonight, they'd be able to win the whole thing.

How much you have on this one?
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by XLR8:

Breaking it down to the simple man, without statistics, %, PER, etc....I just can't see the Mavs beating Miami 4 times. That simple. Defense wins championships and this will be no exception....Miami will win in 6.

Like the Over today but the under as the series progresses.
I enjoy your posts, Good Work Bodio

Thanks buddy.  I enjoy your avatar!  :)
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by TheRaven64:

Interesting Stat Jdukes, where did you find that???

 


I found it on Statfox.com the under is 40-8 in nba finals games since 1996 where the total is inbetween 180-189.5. that is a whopping 83.3%.
Money Management and discipline is the key to success in sports investing
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by jdukes0004:


I found it on Statfox.com the under is 40-8 in nba finals games since 1996 where the total is inbetween 180-189.5. that is a whopping 83.3%.

Wow..interesting. 

 
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Posted: #58
With ya Big Brutha.
 
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Posted: #59
 Good Luck Bodio, on the under in the NBA tonight!! I  am going with you My friend..
 
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Posted: #60
hopefully this under doesn't turn out like the champions league final 

BOL bodio! 
 
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Posted: #61

Quote Originally Posted by EDDIEW:

very disappointed bodio One of the top cappers and you couldn't find a side to wager on in the biggest series of the year?? Not even a small bet?

LOL .... the biggest game of the year usually has minmal value and the tightest lines......

..... if want some degenerate action, just flip a coin to pick a side, and you will get the same chance of picking a winner...lol

 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by Colts03:

hopefully this under doesn't turn out like the champions league final 

BOL bodio! 

haha..yeah, no shit.  That one sucked!
 
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Posted: #63
Bodio, do you give any thought to which way the line may move before you make a play? Just curious....I know most of the people that do this seriously feel very strongly about getting the best line possible.

And kind of in a follow up question, are you at all concerned that the total has climbed by a point? (I realize that is not much). I've noticed that most of the time the line moves in the direction of your play, with this being an exception.
 
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Posted: #64
 
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Posted: #65
Love the play all over that my self...............

Good luck...............................

 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by Colts03:

hopefully this under doesn't turn out like the champions league final 

BOL bodio! 


Get lost Dick
 
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Posted: #67

  Sometimes being a good handicapper is knowing when NOT to wager (at least that's what I believe).  No need to bet every series or every side/total.]

I agree with that my friend ...when there are 12 baseball or 10 baskets going  but we're talking now of the biggest series of the year and you being a top capper has no decision  Well I won't bother you with this anymore ...just seems strange to me

 
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Posted: #68
good luck Bo, I agree with the Under, gonna do a small play on the Mavs too.  Lets do DIS
All it takes is one bad day to reduce the sanest man alive to lunacy
 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


Just ride it!  Too many people worry about 'hedging' plays when they didn't plan to do so initially.  If someone makes a futures play without accounting for 'hedging', it's best to just let it play out.  If Dallas wins today, then you'll have a nice 'hedging' opportunity without risking a lot of juice, though I would argue that if Dallas wins tonight, they'd be able to win the whole thing.

How much you have on this one?


$500 to win $15,000 at +3000...got a great line in February on 5Dimes...my regular Unit is $750 for NBA so you can see why this is a huge deal for me...to win 20X what I would normally win on one wager. I may just ride it out and hope Mavs win tonight so I can hedge a little at even or + juice for a guaranteed profit. But as you said, if Mavs win tonight they can win the whole thing and I'd be tempted to ride it out anyways. I just don't want to come out of this thing -$500 when I have a great chance to make a very nice profit to go towards my NFL Bankroll (fav sport to handicap).

On a side note, I see that Under has moved up 2 points to 189 ...wish I held out.
 
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Posted: #70
gl to you  On dallas series and game
 
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Posted: #71
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:



$500 to win $15,000 at +3000...got a great line in February on 5Dimes...my regular Unit is $750 for NBA so you can see why this is a huge deal for me...to win 20X what I would normally win on one wager. I may just ride it out and hope Mavs win tonight so I can hedge a little at even or + juice for a guaranteed profit. But as you said, if Mavs win tonight they can win the whole thing and I'd be tempted to ride it out anyways. I just don't want to come out of this thing -$500 when I have a great chance to make a very nice profit to go towards my NFL Bankroll (fav sport to handicap).

On a side note, I see that Under has moved up 2 points to 189 ...wish I held out.


Nice chunk of change.  I hope Mavs win tonight for you bud!
 
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Posted: #73
Its looking good for ya man, heres to a good low scoring 4th, (preferably with the Heat staying ontop). Good call on the Brewers today also.
 
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Posted: #74

nice hitttttt made it a nice payday

 
 
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Posted: #75
Under...

2-0 day...that's more like it!

Mavs lost but they were in it for most of the game, should be a tight series. Hopefully they steal Game 2.


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