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Bodio's 2010-2011 NBA Finals PREVIEW and pick for game 1

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Nice work as always. Appreciate it...

EE

 
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Posted: #28
GL BODIO

 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by POLISH:

mavs in 6 at +650

mavs in 7 at +650 sound like good bets to me

I will be putting $500 on both


Yeah, this is not a bad wager at all actually.  Good luck!
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by proguy747:

GL Bodio.

I am on the other side so one of us will cash.  I like overs in the first game of the series.  

Like your right up, however Haslem is a huge factor on the defensive end that dirk has not seen since the last finals.

Yeah I know a lot of analysts have turned this into a significant 'factor', but I disagree.  I don't think Haslem is back fully to the physical playing shape he was in prior to his injury, plus Dirk is a different player than he was 5 years ago.  I sure hope that he'll be a factor as that will help the UNDER, but I don't think he'll be the one to step up for Miami against Dirk.  We shall see.  GL buddy
 
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Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

bodio

The worst thing is that, IMO, this series comes down to something you can't cap, and that's the refs. I legitimately believe that if the stripes don't send Wade and LeBron to the line a combined average of 25+ times a game, then Mavs should win this series cleanly and quickly.

Yeah, good point on the 'refs'.  I think so far, they've done a pretty good job during these playoffs.  I think as long as they're consistent, the players will adjust to their tendencies.  If they're 'all over the place', then it will probably favor Miami.  Good point!
 
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Posted: #32

BOL Bodio!

 
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Couldn't have broke it down better myself Bodio.  Great write up.  I did make a small play on Dallas to win in 5 at +1200 because I feel like that's a miss pricing.  Other than that I'll be looking to play this series game by game.  I don't want to play a side on this first game.  I'd rather take the temperature, so to speak, of both the teams and see what kind of adjustments they will be making heading into game 2.  The UNDER should have more value than usual in this series since public money will outweigh sharp money every night.  Not saying to simply fade the public the entire series, but it's definitely something to take into account as the books will be setting numbers to take advantage of public biases.  Anyway, good luck playing this series homie.

Let's cash some tickets. 
 
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 Gl   On the over in this one, don't love it, combination of many over trends, time off for Dallas, also think it will take time for defenses to fiqure out these 2 potent offenses, makes me believe that this one has a fair chance of going over (4-2 over in playoffs for these 2 teams in gm1 this year in playoffs).  It may come down to how the Refs call the game. Thanks for the writeup, very insightful.  Got Mavs at 4-1 to win champ after gm2 of Lakers series. Don't like the price(-170) but decided to hedge some after seeing your writup, any thoughts??
 
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Posted: #35
GL...Bodio
 
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Posted: #36
gl Bodio.....
 
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Posted: #37
good luck bodio...
 
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Posted: #38
Bodio,

Do you think Chris Bosh will score more than 19 pts in Gm1?  I'm thinking the Under 19 has some value. 

Aloha!
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

bodio

The worst thing is that, IMO, this series comes down to something you can't cap, and that's the refs. I legitimately believe that if the stripes don't send Wade and LeBron to the line a combined average of 25+ times a game, then Mavs should win this series cleanly and quickly.

Kap said it right.  With teams especially like the Heat and Mavs - you gotta believe personal relationships between Cuban/Riley and the league are EXTREMELY IMPORTANT.  

Good Luck tonight!
 
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Posted: #40
very disappointed bodio One of the top cappers and you couldn't find a side to wager on in the biggest series of the year?? Not even a small bet?
 
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Posted: #41
Hey Bodio, the under is a great play because:  All teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in the nba finals the under is   40-8 since 1996.
Money Management and discipline is the key to success in sports investing
 
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Posted: #43

the team that wins game 1 of finals wins the series 73% of the time

 

 Bodio

 
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Posted: #44
Great analysis buddy...I'm still torn how to play out my Mavs future..may ride it and hedge later on depending on how the series is going. GL on that Under tonight.


 
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Posted: #45

Quote Originally Posted by jdukes0004:

Hey Bodio, the under is a great play because:  All teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in the nba finals the under is   40-8 since 1996.

Interesting Stat Jdukes, where did you find that???

 

 
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Quote Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:

Great analysis buddy...I'm still torn how to play out my Mavs future..may ride it and hedge later on depending on how the series is going. GL on that Under tonight.


I put small amt (20% of win) on Miami (-170) with the hopes of getting even or +$ if they win gm 1 or 2, hopefully gm1. GL

 
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Posted: #47
Breaking it down to the simple man, without statistics, %, PER, etc....I just can't see the Mavs beating Miami 4 times. That simple. Defense wins championships and this will be no exception....Miami will win in 6.

Like the Over today but the under as the series progresses.
I enjoy your posts, Good Work Bodio
 
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Posted: #48

 

Best of Luck tonight 

 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by jaygt911:

Couldn't have broke it down better myself Bodio.  Great write up.  I did make a small play on Dallas to win in 5 at +1200 because I feel like that's a miss pricing.  Other than that I'll be looking to play this series game by game.  I don't want to play a side on this first game.  I'd rather take the temperature, so to speak, of both the teams and see what kind of adjustments they will be making heading into game 2.  The UNDER should have more value than usual in this series since public money will outweigh sharp money every night.  Not saying to simply fade the public the entire series, but it's definitely something to take into account as the books will be setting numbers to take advantage of public biases.  Anyway, good luck playing this series homie.

Let's cash some tickets. 

Yes, I agree with you on not playing the side game 1, even though Miami is tempting.  I'd watch game 1 closely and then make my plays based off that.  After a lay-off expect both offenses to need a bit of time to get going, while the defenses should be fairly sharp in this one.  GL brutha
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by TheRaven64:

 Gl   On the over in this one, don't love it, combination of many over trends, time off for Dallas, also think it will take time for defenses to fiqure out these 2 potent offenses, makes me believe that this one has a fair chance of going over (4-2 over in playoffs for these 2 teams in gm1 this year in playoffs).  It may come down to how the Refs call the game. Thanks for the writeup, very insightful.  Got Mavs at 4-1 to win champ after gm2 of Lakers series. Don't like the price(-170) but decided to hedge some after seeing your writup, any thoughts??

6 games is not a good sample size plus I'm not sure that's a trend I'd look at when making and O/U play in this one.  I know there are a bunch of other trends that favor the OVER, but you have to remember that these 2 teams only faced each other twice.  All previous historical data is irrelevant as they were very different.

I would hope that Dalls wins one of the first 2 games to hedge your futures play.  You should be able to get better odds then.  Obviously if Miami wins both, then that would a mute point.  GL brutha
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