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    All Forums | NBA Betting Forum

    A cap and a writeup dedicated to the memory of a now passed Covers member -Apache- Knicks @ Raptors

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    scalabrine
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 2:04 AM ET #1

    My titles have been a bit obnoxious as of late and it is time I did something good with one. 

    If you are not aware, a long time member of this site passed away this week. His name here was ApacheM.

    I will say from the outset I did not get along with Apache. Our views about social and political issues did not mesh. We argued continuously about everything from a dog being a man's best friend, a vegan lifestyle, and of course, racism. I cursed and yelled while he mostly kept calm and said what he needed to say.

    I don't argue like that anymore and it has served me and the posters here well. I have grown in that regard. I concentrate on NBA capping and won't let myself get in an unwinnable argument (unwinnable from either side of the fence really).

    Having said that, I did visit the General Discussion forum this week and saw the thread about Apache.

    What struck me the most about his passing was that his son chose to relay this information to this message board. These are people the son never met. It is likely his father never met the thousands of posters here if only a few. Yet Covers was so ubiquitous in his life, he spent so much time there, that the son who survived him felt the need, and thankfully so, to disclose to the posters how Apache lived out his final days and how he succumbed to the disease that took him from this world.

    While I may not have gotten along with him, I saw that, through his son's communications, this message board was more than just a gambling site. We meet people here, yet we never shake their hands. We divulge our deepest secrets, yet we never speak face to face. An avatar and a screen name are our only identifiers. In many ways, this is how the deaf and blind communicate through their respective worlds. The blind never see a face and the deaf never hear a voice, but they relate to others nonetheless, as their senses allow, forming relationships that are likely far stronger than those who have the blessing of all their senses.

    In the same vein, through digital communication, everyone here is a black box.

    But even though we are all black boxes to one another, words transmitted on a screen to our eyes tell us more than we could ever know of a stranger. The distrust ingrained in every one of us since our youngest age prevents such a relationship. But here, our anonymity gives us the freedom to express ourselves.

    The expressions in Apache's blog are something he'd almost certainly never share with the common man. 

    Yet here, we are privy to it.

    Someone posted his blog in the thread that communicated his passing. I read it. Here was a a man I thought I couldn't like and didn't want to meet, yet, in his own way, taught me about the life I was destined to live one day.

    His descriptions of aging, of the recognition of his mortality, and loss of vitality struck me greatly. We know this is to come, that Father Time is undefeated in the battle of life and death, but our mind's push the aging process to the deepest recesses of our conscious and subconscious.

    Aging is too much to bear. We want to 'grow up' not 'grow old'. The fact is, we were all 'growing old' upon our exit from the womb. More so, we were 'growing old' upon conception. But we choose to rephrase this to maintain a positive mindset, one that helps us to survive and thrive. We are not wrong to do this. But it refreshing when someone like Apache helps us hit the reset button from time to time, however brief.

    As Apache aged, it became easier for him to discuss it, to come to terms with it, so much so, he wanted to share that experience with others. It is not a pleasant one, but very necessary. It is in old age we become more honest and less fearful of our reality. We have no choice.

    His descriptions of the aging process touched me, particularly how he described his wife aging.

    Most of us are frank about the way we see ourselves, perhaps even self-deprecating. But most of us defend our families relentlessly and hold them in the highest regard.

    Yet, Apache, perhaps sitting across the room pretending to watch a game, but peering out of the corner of his eye to watch his wife struggle to get up from the couch, didn't just see his own wrinkles and gray hairs, he saw his wife's as well.


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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    My titles have been a bit obnoxious as of late and it is time I did something good with one. 

    If you are not aware, a long time member of this site passed away this week. His name here was ApacheM.

    I will say from the outset I did not get along with Apache. Our views about social and political issues did not mesh. We argued continuously about everything from a dog being a man's best friend, a vegan lifestyle, and of course, racism. I cursed and yelled while he mostly kept calm and said what he needed to say.

    I don't argue like that anymore and it has served me and the posters here well. I have grown in that regard. I concentrate on NBA capping and won't let myself get in an unwinnable argument (unwinnable from either side of the fence really).

    Having said that, I did visit the General Discussion forum this week and saw the thread about Apache.

    What struck me the most about his passing was that his son chose to relay this information to this message board. These are people the son never met. It is likely his father never met the thousands of posters here if only a few. Yet Covers was so ubiquitous in his life, he spent so much time there, that the son who survived him felt the need, and thankfully so, to disclose to the posters how Apache lived out his final days and how he succumbed to the disease that took him from this world.

    While I may not have gotten along with him, I saw that, through his son's communications, this message board was more than just a gambling site. We meet people here, yet we never shake their hands. We divulge our deepest secrets, yet we never speak face to face. An avatar and a screen name are our only identifiers. In many ways, this is how the deaf and blind communicate through their respective worlds. The blind never see a face and the deaf never hear a voice, but they relate to others nonetheless, as their senses allow, forming relationships that are likely far stronger than those who have the blessing of all their senses.

    In the same vein, through digital communication, everyone here is a black box.

    But even though we are all black boxes to one another, words transmitted on a screen to our eyes tell us more than we could ever know of a stranger. The distrust ingrained in every one of us since our youngest age prevents such a relationship. But here, our anonymity gives us the freedom to express ourselves.

    The expressions in Apache's blog are something he'd almost certainly never share with the common man. 

    Yet here, we are privy to it.

    Someone posted his blog in the thread that communicated his passing. I read it. Here was a a man I thought I couldn't like and didn't want to meet, yet, in his own way, taught me about the life I was destined to live one day.

    His descriptions of aging, of the recognition of his mortality, and loss of vitality struck me greatly. We know this is to come, that Father Time is undefeated in the battle of life and death, but our mind's push the aging process to the deepest recesses of our conscious and subconscious.

    Aging is too much to bear. We want to 'grow up' not 'grow old'. The fact is, we were all 'growing old' upon our exit from the womb. More so, we were 'growing old' upon conception. But we choose to rephrase this to maintain a positive mindset, one that helps us to survive and thrive. We are not wrong to do this. But it refreshing when someone like Apache helps us hit the reset button from time to time, however brief.

    As Apache aged, it became easier for him to discuss it, to come to terms with it, so much so, he wanted to share that experience with others. It is not a pleasant one, but very necessary. It is in old age we become more honest and less fearful of our reality. We have no choice.

    His descriptions of the aging process touched me, particularly how he described his wife aging.

    Most of us are frank about the way we see ourselves, perhaps even self-deprecating. But most of us defend our families relentlessly and hold them in the highest regard.

    Yet, Apache, perhaps sitting across the room pretending to watch a game, but peering out of the corner of his eye to watch his wife struggle to get up from the couch, didn't just see his own wrinkles and gray hairs, he saw his wife's as well.


     
    scalabrine
    scalabrine
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    Posts: 28221
    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 2:05 AM ET #2

    This is empathy. This is compassion. This is a recognition of a partner you married for better or worse. This is and understanding of another's emotional and physical state beyond your own. I imagine as he wrote about his wife, however brief, he would have given up some of his years to help his wife grow young again, or at least feel young again, if not just for a fleeting moment.

    There is a Twilight Zone episode where a man sells the years of his youth for money. That money buys all the possessions he desires. The great irony comes in the fact he grew so old through the sale of his years, he had little to no time to enjoy those riches, and no one to share them with. These years, young and old years, are priceless and not for sale. Even the last minutes of life are priceless if a loved one stands beside you to breath in the same air you just exhaled.

    His son looked to him as a hero. He says so in the thread. You do not have to earn parenthood, but you must earn heroism. This is a medal of honor in this life that is not bestowed out of kindness or good will, and a son, with no obligation to tell others what kind of man he was raised by and now passed, would not say his father was a 'hero' casually, especially to strangers. But he did.

    Apache must have done right by his son. I know neither person but it is apparent his son was raised to love and be loved. And this was so strong, and this board was so meaningful, that for one thread, we all understood in part, who the man behind the keyboard was, if only in a few posts, through the fingertips of his progeny.

    We were all touched, as many posters said in the thread of his passing.

    Touch is important in this life. It is so important, that at the turn of last century, many children were not touched after they were born. This wasn't cruel or unusual. It was due to a misunderstanding of disease. There was an extraordinarily high infant mortality rate and if the prohibition of touch appeared to help extend life, even if this touch was denied to the smallest and most helpless child, so be it.

    But the lack of touch had severe ramifications that produced a result counter to what was intended. Babies who were not touched by their parents developed low immunity, and then when the inevitable malady set in, that baby perished because its immune system wasn't strong enough to persist through it.

    Unbeknownst to these parents, the very thing that parents tried to protect their children from had been strengthened. These parents loved their children like any other, yet were robbed of their life, their affection, their joy. This is a cruel existence. 

    Children who are in intensive care in incubators need to be touched or they too will perish. A child in ICU has significantly better brain development and chances or survival when the back of its head is stroked by parents or even strangers during the day. We are all connected and thrive off one another. This teaches us to hug, to hold, to be more affectionate with our loved ones in an era that can be perceived as standoffish.

    Undoubtedly, Apache's son reciprocated that touch at his bedside by holding his hand, perhaps kissing him on the forehead. It was in those quiet moments of affection from a son to a father that extended his life. I can assure you of that. The wrong touch can take a life but all of life thrives off the simple touch of one to another, far outweighing a touch of aggression or harm.

    When your time has come, those additional hours or days or weeks that you have on this earth, that were added to your life from the ones you loved and created, are quite precious, even if in pain as apparently Apache appears to have been in before medication was administered. 

    I'm sure many of us here are familiar with these moments being described from parents who have passed. If in sickness, without your love, they would have perished immediately, just as you would have perished had you been denied their love when you were born. 

    Similarly, we were all touched emotionally by his passing. It is amazing that this bundle of wires and microchips and plastic and pixels can make a man emote and convey intense feeling. 

    Apache's son also noted that his father wanted to get some more bets in, even in the final days of his life. Is gambling a disease? Maybe. Was he a degenerate? We all are. But what were these apparently meaningless bets to mean to a bankroll that Apache couldn't collect?

    It was in those bets that he likely conveyed he wanted normalcy. Betting, as he did and we do, day in and day out, is what makes us feel normal. Is betting a good thing? That is to be debated. But it certainly did no harm to a man in pain. The hospital is not an environment of comfort. Your blood is being taken continuously and when you are not staring at stained ceiling panels, you are trying to block out the sound of heart monitors beeping 24/7 with a TV from the 80's you are paying $5 a day for.


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    This is empathy. This is compassion. This is a recognition of a partner you married for better or worse. This is and understanding of another's emotional and physical state beyond your own. I imagine as he wrote about his wife, however brief, he would have given up some of his years to help his wife grow young again, or at least feel young again, if not just for a fleeting moment.

    There is a Twilight Zone episode where a man sells the years of his youth for money. That money buys all the possessions he desires. The great irony comes in the fact he grew so old through the sale of his years, he had little to no time to enjoy those riches, and no one to share them with. These years, young and old years, are priceless and not for sale. Even the last minutes of life are priceless if a loved one stands beside you to breath in the same air you just exhaled.

    His son looked to him as a hero. He says so in the thread. You do not have to earn parenthood, but you must earn heroism. This is a medal of honor in this life that is not bestowed out of kindness or good will, and a son, with no obligation to tell others what kind of man he was raised by and now passed, would not say his father was a 'hero' casually, especially to strangers. But he did.

    Apache must have done right by his son. I know neither person but it is apparent his son was raised to love and be loved. And this was so strong, and this board was so meaningful, that for one thread, we all understood in part, who the man behind the keyboard was, if only in a few posts, through the fingertips of his progeny.

    We were all touched, as many posters said in the thread of his passing.

    Touch is important in this life. It is so important, that at the turn of last century, many children were not touched after they were born. This wasn't cruel or unusual. It was due to a misunderstanding of disease. There was an extraordinarily high infant mortality rate and if the prohibition of touch appeared to help extend life, even if this touch was denied to the smallest and most helpless child, so be it.

    But the lack of touch had severe ramifications that produced a result counter to what was intended. Babies who were not touched by their parents developed low immunity, and then when the inevitable malady set in, that baby perished because its immune system wasn't strong enough to persist through it.

    Unbeknownst to these parents, the very thing that parents tried to protect their children from had been strengthened. These parents loved their children like any other, yet were robbed of their life, their affection, their joy. This is a cruel existence. 

    Children who are in intensive care in incubators need to be touched or they too will perish. A child in ICU has significantly better brain development and chances or survival when the back of its head is stroked by parents or even strangers during the day. We are all connected and thrive off one another. This teaches us to hug, to hold, to be more affectionate with our loved ones in an era that can be perceived as standoffish.

    Undoubtedly, Apache's son reciprocated that touch at his bedside by holding his hand, perhaps kissing him on the forehead. It was in those quiet moments of affection from a son to a father that extended his life. I can assure you of that. The wrong touch can take a life but all of life thrives off the simple touch of one to another, far outweighing a touch of aggression or harm.

    When your time has come, those additional hours or days or weeks that you have on this earth, that were added to your life from the ones you loved and created, are quite precious, even if in pain as apparently Apache appears to have been in before medication was administered. 

    I'm sure many of us here are familiar with these moments being described from parents who have passed. If in sickness, without your love, they would have perished immediately, just as you would have perished had you been denied their love when you were born. 

    Similarly, we were all touched emotionally by his passing. It is amazing that this bundle of wires and microchips and plastic and pixels can make a man emote and convey intense feeling. 

    Apache's son also noted that his father wanted to get some more bets in, even in the final days of his life. Is gambling a disease? Maybe. Was he a degenerate? We all are. But what were these apparently meaningless bets to mean to a bankroll that Apache couldn't collect?

    It was in those bets that he likely conveyed he wanted normalcy. Betting, as he did and we do, day in and day out, is what makes us feel normal. Is betting a good thing? That is to be debated. But it certainly did no harm to a man in pain. The hospital is not an environment of comfort. Your blood is being taken continuously and when you are not staring at stained ceiling panels, you are trying to block out the sound of heart monitors beeping 24/7 with a TV from the 80's you are paying $5 a day for.


     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 2:05 AM ET #3

    He likely yearned to be back on Covers, telling a joke or in his account picking a team. Even if his son carried this routine out for him, by placing the bet, that vicarious association was enough to bring him comfort.

    And I think comfort was all he was seeking. Morphine is a very powerful drug to relieve pain and this drug was administered to him. But these bets, and these games, did more than the morphine ever could. It was first his loved ones and then his lifestyle, that kept him going. In part we all share in that lifestyle through this site. Without its members, what is Covers? Just numbers and cold statistics and empty forums. It is a bit emptier now with a member no longer logging on.

    I want to thank the son for relaying his father's final days to this board. Those days mattered to him and to us and I personally learned something from them.




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    He likely yearned to be back on Covers, telling a joke or in his account picking a team. Even if his son carried this routine out for him, by placing the bet, that vicarious association was enough to bring him comfort.

    And I think comfort was all he was seeking. Morphine is a very powerful drug to relieve pain and this drug was administered to him. But these bets, and these games, did more than the morphine ever could. It was first his loved ones and then his lifestyle, that kept him going. In part we all share in that lifestyle through this site. Without its members, what is Covers? Just numbers and cold statistics and empty forums. It is a bit emptier now with a member no longer logging on.

    I want to thank the son for relaying his father's final days to this board. Those days mattered to him and to us and I personally learned something from them.




     
    lmb4321
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 2:06 AM ET #4

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    scalabrine
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 2:06 AM ET #5


    It is in that spirit that I cap this game in his memory given one of the final things Apache did with the little time he had left, to feel normal, to feel whole, was to cap a game.

    The game of choice is the Knicks at the Raptors at 7PM tonight.

    I have eight words to make this nice and simple if you are tired of reading: the Knicks are going to win this game.

    I had a discussion with BeginnerBoy about traditional capping outside of spreadsheets and algorithms and the aggregation and interpretation of statistics and trends of any and all kinds. This is the human element of capping. No PC, no hard drive, no program no matter how powerful can duplicate the human element and insight to a cap a game.

    As a season progresses, I believe you can have one team you are so in sync with, a symbiotic relationship develops with that team far beyond spreads. It is through that understanding that you can cap a team effectively. Anyone here with a team they've followed their entire life knows about that relationship. Virtually every day posters from out of nowhere, having not posted for years, come into threads to support or refute a conclusion about a team and capped side. They later disclose they've followed the team their entire life. They are not always correct but I listen when they have something to say about their team. It is almost always helpful.

    The Knicks are my team.

    How are they? They are not in a good place right now.

    They are two games out with 4 left to play. They must win them all and have the Hawks go 1-3 for them to make the playoffs. Impossible? No. Improbable? Maybe.

    But lets look at the Knicks schedule:

    @ Raptors
    Vs. Bulls
    @ Nets
    Vs. Raptors

    What is the most winnable game of all those games? Perhaps the last obviously but the final one or two games of the season become largely unbettable. Teams shut down for the playoffs. Others may have everything to play for. Spreads rise and fall with players being pulled (The Pacers opened at -8 Wednesday and plummeted to -2.5 vs. the Bucks). There is too much volatility. It is the third to last and fourth to last games where you get some stability.

    So not only do we have a question of unstable lines in the future, we have motivational issues as the Knicks may or may not be fighting for the playoffs against teams that may or may not be resting players.

    There is too much uncertainty there in those last two games perhaps. We will see. 

    Therefore, the time to strike is NOW. And I can assure you, THIS is the best game of the 4 above which the Knicks can win. And all we need to do is win since the line is Raptors -5 (and that is a big line for the Knicks here and I will get to that). 

    Why is this the best game?

    1. The Knicks are on the brink of elimination with a glimmer of hope remaining. 

    Yes, they let themselves get here. It didn't have to be this way. There were so many opportunities for the Knicks to be tied with the Hawks here and control their destiny. They do control that destiny anymore.

    But there is a bright side.

    The Hawks have the following schedule:

    @Brooklyn
    Miami
    Bobcats
    @Milwaukee

    We can put Miami down as a loss can we not? Miami needs every game they can get and have been suffering through some brutal losses to the T-Wolves and Nets and many others. They will come into ATL and pull no punches.

    That means the Hawks have to go 2-1 vs. the Nets, Bobcats, and @ Milwaukee.

    Well the Nets are unbeatable at home and even if they rest players, there is still more than enough talent to beat the Hawks. Let's hope they continue to give stars minutes.

    That means, the Hawks pretty much have to go 2-0 vs. the Bobcats and Milwaukee. I have a strange feeling that the Bucks, in the last game of a lost season having locked up the #1 lottery slot, will play with nothing to lose as a spoiler if it comes to that. A win over the Bobcats is not easy this year for an Eastern Conference opponent, especially the Hawks.

    There is light at the end of the tunnel, however faint. 

    The Knicks, having lost to the Heat on Sunday, have watched the Heat reduce their Magic number from 4 to 2 with wins over Indy, and Boston. That Detroit loss was huge and had they lost to the Celtics (and boy were they close to doing so), the door would be WIDE open for the Knicks.

    Still, this is put up or shut up time. The Knicks need get out fast and win this game. The Detroit loss gave them more hope then the should have here. That needs to be taken advantage of by a capper.

    Really, it doesn't matter who their opponent is. It doesn't matter what they are playing for. It doesn't matter where the game is played. The Knicks must win. That is the only goal. 


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    It is in that spirit that I cap this game in his memory given one of the final things Apache did with the little time he had left, to feel normal, to feel whole, was to cap a game.

    The game of choice is the Knicks at the Raptors at 7PM tonight.

    I have eight words to make this nice and simple if you are tired of reading: the Knicks are going to win this game.

    I had a discussion with BeginnerBoy about traditional capping outside of spreadsheets and algorithms and the aggregation and interpretation of statistics and trends of any and all kinds. This is the human element of capping. No PC, no hard drive, no program no matter how powerful can duplicate the human element and insight to a cap a game.

    As a season progresses, I believe you can have one team you are so in sync with, a symbiotic relationship develops with that team far beyond spreads. It is through that understanding that you can cap a team effectively. Anyone here with a team they've followed their entire life knows about that relationship. Virtually every day posters from out of nowhere, having not posted for years, come into threads to support or refute a conclusion about a team and capped side. They later disclose they've followed the team their entire life. They are not always correct but I listen when they have something to say about their team. It is almost always helpful.

    The Knicks are my team.

    How are they? They are not in a good place right now.

    They are two games out with 4 left to play. They must win them all and have the Hawks go 1-3 for them to make the playoffs. Impossible? No. Improbable? Maybe.

    But lets look at the Knicks schedule:

    @ Raptors
    Vs. Bulls
    @ Nets
    Vs. Raptors

    What is the most winnable game of all those games? Perhaps the last obviously but the final one or two games of the season become largely unbettable. Teams shut down for the playoffs. Others may have everything to play for. Spreads rise and fall with players being pulled (The Pacers opened at -8 Wednesday and plummeted to -2.5 vs. the Bucks). There is too much volatility. It is the third to last and fourth to last games where you get some stability.

    So not only do we have a question of unstable lines in the future, we have motivational issues as the Knicks may or may not be fighting for the playoffs against teams that may or may not be resting players.

    There is too much uncertainty there in those last two games perhaps. We will see. 

    Therefore, the time to strike is NOW. And I can assure you, THIS is the best game of the 4 above which the Knicks can win. And all we need to do is win since the line is Raptors -5 (and that is a big line for the Knicks here and I will get to that). 

    Why is this the best game?

    1. The Knicks are on the brink of elimination with a glimmer of hope remaining. 

    Yes, they let themselves get here. It didn't have to be this way. There were so many opportunities for the Knicks to be tied with the Hawks here and control their destiny. They do control that destiny anymore.

    But there is a bright side.

    The Hawks have the following schedule:

    @Brooklyn
    Miami
    Bobcats
    @Milwaukee

    We can put Miami down as a loss can we not? Miami needs every game they can get and have been suffering through some brutal losses to the T-Wolves and Nets and many others. They will come into ATL and pull no punches.

    That means the Hawks have to go 2-1 vs. the Nets, Bobcats, and @ Milwaukee.

    Well the Nets are unbeatable at home and even if they rest players, there is still more than enough talent to beat the Hawks. Let's hope they continue to give stars minutes.

    That means, the Hawks pretty much have to go 2-0 vs. the Bobcats and Milwaukee. I have a strange feeling that the Bucks, in the last game of a lost season having locked up the #1 lottery slot, will play with nothing to lose as a spoiler if it comes to that. A win over the Bobcats is not easy this year for an Eastern Conference opponent, especially the Hawks.

    There is light at the end of the tunnel, however faint. 

    The Knicks, having lost to the Heat on Sunday, have watched the Heat reduce their Magic number from 4 to 2 with wins over Indy, and Boston. That Detroit loss was huge and had they lost to the Celtics (and boy were they close to doing so), the door would be WIDE open for the Knicks.

    Still, this is put up or shut up time. The Knicks need get out fast and win this game. The Detroit loss gave them more hope then the should have here. That needs to be taken advantage of by a capper.

    Really, it doesn't matter who their opponent is. It doesn't matter what they are playing for. It doesn't matter where the game is played. The Knicks must win. That is the only goal. 


     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 2:06 AM ET #6

    You have a game before you where the team will be 100% motivated to win after two brutal losses to the Wizards and Heat.
    If they lose, they are effectively eliminated as the Hawks would only need to beat one of those 4 teams and that they would do. They could even eliminate them tonight with a Knicks loss and a Hawks win over the Nets.

    You simply cannot put the Raptors motivation for the 3 seed in this spot up against the Knicks and what is at stake.

    This is not the Heat from Sunday. The Heat were fighting for home court throughout the playoffs and that line opened at 7. It was too short and that is why I backed them.

    This spot is much different. The Raptors are on a tear having won 7 of 8. I would not want to be the Raptors with the Knicks coming with my only motivation being a third seed, having already locked up a playoff spot. Are the Raptors going to run the table to the end of the season? Not in my view. They simply are not good enough. This is the Spurs.

    The situation and the desperation favors the Knicks. This game could be played in Toronto or Tanzania and the Knicks will leave everything out on that court. That I can assure you.


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    You have a game before you where the team will be 100% motivated to win after two brutal losses to the Wizards and Heat.
    If they lose, they are effectively eliminated as the Hawks would only need to beat one of those 4 teams and that they would do. They could even eliminate them tonight with a Knicks loss and a Hawks win over the Nets.

    You simply cannot put the Raptors motivation for the 3 seed in this spot up against the Knicks and what is at stake.

    This is not the Heat from Sunday. The Heat were fighting for home court throughout the playoffs and that line opened at 7. It was too short and that is why I backed them.

    This spot is much different. The Raptors are on a tear having won 7 of 8. I would not want to be the Raptors with the Knicks coming with my only motivation being a third seed, having already locked up a playoff spot. Are the Raptors going to run the table to the end of the season? Not in my view. They simply are not good enough. This is the Spurs.

    The situation and the desperation favors the Knicks. This game could be played in Toronto or Tanzania and the Knicks will leave everything out on that court. That I can assure you.


     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 2:07 AM ET #7

    2. The Knicks on extended rest.

    I had a debate with LC about this trend before the Pacers game. I don't think it applied to that game because the conditions for that game were changed drastically due to the Phil Jackson signing and subsequent media horde. The Knicks winning streak as well as the Pacers dysfunction (we now know they are pretty much in meltdown mode since that game) had a major effect on the outcome of that game. 

    These are the things that must be focused on when dealing with trends. They must be inspected and picked apart before they are applied. I think the following trend adds to our cause and plays a role, although Knicks season being on the line far outweighs it. It is still worth mentioning.

    The Knicks just had 4 full days rest.

    Does that matter? It does. Their longest layoffs this season have resulted in success with wins straight up against quality competition and ATS. Here are their longest layoffs and the result:

    3 full days rest - @Brooklyn 12/5/13 Knicks 113 Nets 83

    4 full days rest - @ Spurs 1/2/14 Knicks 105 Spurs 101

    5 full days rest - @ Memphis 2/18/14 Memphis 98 Knicks 93

    3 full days rest - Pacers at home Knicks 92 Pacers 86

    Therefore, the Knicks are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS against extended rest. (There may be another one but these are the main ones).

    But we should discount the Pacer game heavily due to the Jackson signing. The other games need to be inspected further. The reason I believe the Knicks were so successful in those spots was due to the losing streak they were on before each rested game. Let's look at the losing streaks for the Knicks going into each of those games:

    Brooklyn - 9 game losing streak

    Spurs - 3 game losing streak

    Grizzlies - lost 5 of 6 and 2 game losing streak

    Pacers - 6 game winning streak (should be discounted).

    Mind you, Mike Miller had a season high in the Memphis game and hit almost every three he took late. I don't want to make excuses but the Knicks could easily be 4-0 ATS and 4-0 SU in spots on extended rest (really 3-0 3-0 with the discount but still strong), if Pablo Prigioni can nail a wide open three vs the Grizz.

    That makes the 5 here, the same 5 the Grizz were laying quite large.

    Also, the first 3 games came on the road as does this one.

    So what are the Knicks facing in this spot? Only a two game losing streak? No. Those two losses were absolutely crushing, one with a late collapse and the other to an arch-rival. The blowout win against the Nets seems like eons ago. 

    So the perception of losing far outweighs the actual losing streak of two, as does the season hinging on this game for all intents and purposes. 

    This greatly favors the Knicks.


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    2. The Knicks on extended rest.

    I had a debate with LC about this trend before the Pacers game. I don't think it applied to that game because the conditions for that game were changed drastically due to the Phil Jackson signing and subsequent media horde. The Knicks winning streak as well as the Pacers dysfunction (we now know they are pretty much in meltdown mode since that game) had a major effect on the outcome of that game. 

    These are the things that must be focused on when dealing with trends. They must be inspected and picked apart before they are applied. I think the following trend adds to our cause and plays a role, although Knicks season being on the line far outweighs it. It is still worth mentioning.

    The Knicks just had 4 full days rest.

    Does that matter? It does. Their longest layoffs this season have resulted in success with wins straight up against quality competition and ATS. Here are their longest layoffs and the result:

    3 full days rest - @Brooklyn 12/5/13 Knicks 113 Nets 83

    4 full days rest - @ Spurs 1/2/14 Knicks 105 Spurs 101

    5 full days rest - @ Memphis 2/18/14 Memphis 98 Knicks 93

    3 full days rest - Pacers at home Knicks 92 Pacers 86

    Therefore, the Knicks are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS against extended rest. (There may be another one but these are the main ones).

    But we should discount the Pacer game heavily due to the Jackson signing. The other games need to be inspected further. The reason I believe the Knicks were so successful in those spots was due to the losing streak they were on before each rested game. Let's look at the losing streaks for the Knicks going into each of those games:

    Brooklyn - 9 game losing streak

    Spurs - 3 game losing streak

    Grizzlies - lost 5 of 6 and 2 game losing streak

    Pacers - 6 game winning streak (should be discounted).

    Mind you, Mike Miller had a season high in the Memphis game and hit almost every three he took late. I don't want to make excuses but the Knicks could easily be 4-0 ATS and 4-0 SU in spots on extended rest (really 3-0 3-0 with the discount but still strong), if Pablo Prigioni can nail a wide open three vs the Grizz.

    That makes the 5 here, the same 5 the Grizz were laying quite large.

    Also, the first 3 games came on the road as does this one.

    So what are the Knicks facing in this spot? Only a two game losing streak? No. Those two losses were absolutely crushing, one with a late collapse and the other to an arch-rival. The blowout win against the Nets seems like eons ago. 

    So the perception of losing far outweighs the actual losing streak of two, as does the season hinging on this game for all intents and purposes. 

    This greatly favors the Knicks.


     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 2:07 AM ET #8

    3. Carmelo's status

    As of right now, he will play. He has had 4 full days to rest his shoulder.

    One of the primary reasons I picked the Heat was that Carmelo was sabotaging his team with his awful play, and he has been quite awful.

    So what is his status? The Knicks are remaining mum on it.

    You know what that means. No news is bad news. He has not received any extensive testing on it after the Heat game where he said it felt 'numb' and he had trouble lifting it over his head. 

    So we have no information but the Knicks won't tell us anything but we need information:

    Well we have information if we look for it. This was the same injury he had in last year's series with the Pacers. It is a torn labrum and it was aggravated through last year's playoffs as well.

    What did he do against the Pacers?

    10/28 for 28 points.
    13/26 for 32 points.
    6/16 for 21 points.
    9/23 for 24 points.
    12-28 for 28 points.
    15-29 for 39 points.

    This is high volume, high scoring, low FG. This was responsible for the Knicks losing that series, along with JR completely imploding.

    We don't know if the injury in the Pacers series is as severe as it is now. Given Melo's awful output vs. the Wiz and Heat (a game where he didn't take a shot in the fourth quarter), it is almost certainly worse right now.

    Still the 5 days does some good so its rest and hope for the Knicks. If we can get some scoring out of him, say 16-18, the Knicks can definitely win this game.

    But even if Melo is not himself, and he almost certainly won't be, is there still hope?

    Yes.

    The Knicks had a 1 point lead against the Wiz with 22 seconds left until Beal sunk them. They played a bad game with a gimpy Melo and still had what it took to win it in the final seconds had Melo no turned the ball over.

    In Miami, the Knicks jumped out to a 16-3 lead exhibiting the purpose of a team that wanted to make the playoffs. This was in Miami against the defending champs at their achilles heal start time (1 pm). Also JR took a record number of threes for any player EVER and the Knicks only fell 4 outside the spread of 7. That is streetball. Still, the Knicks pulled within 3 late but ultimately ran out of gas.

    These are positives. 

    As bad as they are, Amare, Tyson and JR can step up when their feet are held to the fire. Also Hardaway and Prigioni gave you absolutely nothing in that game. If they give even their averages, the Knicks can win.

    4. The spread

    The spread is large. It's 5 now and I expect it to get to 4.5/4. I am going to jump all over the 5 and then pound the ML. Because I only post a record and not units, I gain nothing for posting a ML. But I will be playing the side throughout the day and when the ML hits the board that is getting played hard as well. If the spread makes you more comfortable, by all means take it.

    This Toronto team is not TWO points less to the spread than the Miami Heat (7 in Miami to 5 in Toronto) especially against a Knick team on 5 days rest, Melo injury or not, when their season hangs in the balance. You can debate me on that until you are blue in the face.

    Again, buy low, sell high. The Melo injury is know fully disclosed (apparently not with that Heat line of 7) and people are selling on the Knicks. And why wouldn't they. I am telling you they can win this game. They are devalued by the Melo injury. They have been devalued by the last two losses. That is more in the spread above a key number of 4.

    Ultimately, the Knicks can come into this game with a starting 5 in wheelchairs and I believe they will win. And the 5? The 5 is some mighty hefty insurance for anything that could go wrong. The Knicks will not come out slow so prepare to swallow hard if you think the Raptors are the right side. EVERYTHING is on the line here for the Knicks and they will fight to the end.

    They will scratch and claw and fight to the bitter end.

    Apache was a veteran of war but wasn't claimed by that war. He went out on his terms with his family by his side. 

    The Knicks will go out on their terms as well. Ultimately, they will likely succumb, but not tonight. There is one more day here to live on. One more day to hope...

    I did the write-up for this game out of respect and I hope it has served a life lived well at the hands of the son and family he knew, and I hope it brings more attention to that life. A man's legacy is all he wishes to have recognized when all is said and done, and a legacy is something that never perishes.

    THE PICK:

    KNICKS +5 OVER RAPTORS
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    3. Carmelo's status

    As of right now, he will play. He has had 4 full days to rest his shoulder.

    One of the primary reasons I picked the Heat was that Carmelo was sabotaging his team with his awful play, and he has been quite awful.

    So what is his status? The Knicks are remaining mum on it.

    You know what that means. No news is bad news. He has not received any extensive testing on it after the Heat game where he said it felt 'numb' and he had trouble lifting it over his head. 

    So we have no information but the Knicks won't tell us anything but we need information:

    Well we have information if we look for it. This was the same injury he had in last year's series with the Pacers. It is a torn labrum and it was aggravated through last year's playoffs as well.

    What did he do against the Pacers?

    10/28 for 28 points.
    13/26 for 32 points.
    6/16 for 21 points.
    9/23 for 24 points.
    12-28 for 28 points.
    15-29 for 39 points.

    This is high volume, high scoring, low FG. This was responsible for the Knicks losing that series, along with JR completely imploding.

    We don't know if the injury in the Pacers series is as severe as it is now. Given Melo's awful output vs. the Wiz and Heat (a game where he didn't take a shot in the fourth quarter), it is almost certainly worse right now.

    Still the 5 days does some good so its rest and hope for the Knicks. If we can get some scoring out of him, say 16-18, the Knicks can definitely win this game.

    But even if Melo is not himself, and he almost certainly won't be, is there still hope?

    Yes.

    The Knicks had a 1 point lead against the Wiz with 22 seconds left until Beal sunk them. They played a bad game with a gimpy Melo and still had what it took to win it in the final seconds had Melo no turned the ball over.

    In Miami, the Knicks jumped out to a 16-3 lead exhibiting the purpose of a team that wanted to make the playoffs. This was in Miami against the defending champs at their achilles heal start time (1 pm). Also JR took a record number of threes for any player EVER and the Knicks only fell 4 outside the spread of 7. That is streetball. Still, the Knicks pulled within 3 late but ultimately ran out of gas.

    These are positives. 

    As bad as they are, Amare, Tyson and JR can step up when their feet are held to the fire. Also Hardaway and Prigioni gave you absolutely nothing in that game. If they give even their averages, the Knicks can win.

    4. The spread

    The spread is large. It's 5 now and I expect it to get to 4.5/4. I am going to jump all over the 5 and then pound the ML. Because I only post a record and not units, I gain nothing for posting a ML. But I will be playing the side throughout the day and when the ML hits the board that is getting played hard as well. If the spread makes you more comfortable, by all means take it.

    This Toronto team is not TWO points less to the spread than the Miami Heat (7 in Miami to 5 in Toronto) especially against a Knick team on 5 days rest, Melo injury or not, when their season hangs in the balance. You can debate me on that until you are blue in the face.

    Again, buy low, sell high. The Melo injury is know fully disclosed (apparently not with that Heat line of 7) and people are selling on the Knicks. And why wouldn't they. I am telling you they can win this game. They are devalued by the Melo injury. They have been devalued by the last two losses. That is more in the spread above a key number of 4.

    Ultimately, the Knicks can come into this game with a starting 5 in wheelchairs and I believe they will win. And the 5? The 5 is some mighty hefty insurance for anything that could go wrong. The Knicks will not come out slow so prepare to swallow hard if you think the Raptors are the right side. EVERYTHING is on the line here for the Knicks and they will fight to the end.

    They will scratch and claw and fight to the bitter end.

    Apache was a veteran of war but wasn't claimed by that war. He went out on his terms with his family by his side. 

    The Knicks will go out on their terms as well. Ultimately, they will likely succumb, but not tonight. There is one more day here to live on. One more day to hope...

    I did the write-up for this game out of respect and I hope it has served a life lived well at the hands of the son and family he knew, and I hope it brings more attention to that life. A man's legacy is all he wishes to have recognized when all is said and done, and a legacy is something that never perishes.

    THE PICK:

    KNICKS +5 OVER RAPTORS
     
    BERTO
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 2:24 AM ET #9

    WagerType:Date:Team:Risking / To WinTicket#:
    StraightApr 11NBA [703] NY KNICKS +5-1101100.00 USD / 1000.00 USD82194584
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    WagerType:Date:Team:Risking / To WinTicket#:
    StraightApr 11NBA [703] NY KNICKS +5-1101100.00 USD / 1000.00 USD82194584
     
    lmb4321
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 2:29 AM ET #10

    hey I've been a long time follower on this site for years..,.but I always stayed on the sidelines and tailed and faded wagers till  recently......but in a way Scal...if we are all on the same goal to help us all to make money and more importantly....we have developed a sick but awesome degenerate gamblers website where we develop online relationships..... I'm all for it....God bless Apache....and go Knicks....

     

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    hey I've been a long time follower on this site for years..,.but I always stayed on the sidelines and tailed and faded wagers till  recently......but in a way Scal...if we are all on the same goal to help us all to make money and more importantly....we have developed a sick but awesome degenerate gamblers website where we develop online relationships..... I'm all for it....God bless Apache....and go Knicks....

     

     
    RonBurgundy808
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 2:33 AM ET #11

    Thanks spurs it is 
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    Thanks spurs it is 
     
    melossinglet
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 2:35 AM ET #12

    ....one of the best things ive read here...and i enjoy most everything that you contribute....thanks dude.

    its startling wen sumthing real snaps you back to reality that we mostly ignore thru our distractions and obsessions,like..uh...oh,i dunno this silly little hobby of sports/gambling.
    i bet after a long while most,like me,are numbed to the fact that every pile of words we see here actually come from a real,live human being.and you are 100% correct.i,along with many others,conduct myself in a way i never cud or wud if interacting in the real world......this motivates me to think and that is the most important thing you can do scalabrine wen the world is drowning in a tsunami of non-thinking...just doing and following and acting out and going thru the monotonous motions of life
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    ....one of the best things ive read here...and i enjoy most everything that you contribute....thanks dude.

    its startling wen sumthing real snaps you back to reality that we mostly ignore thru our distractions and obsessions,like..uh...oh,i dunno this silly little hobby of sports/gambling.
    i bet after a long while most,like me,are numbed to the fact that every pile of words we see here actually come from a real,live human being.and you are 100% correct.i,along with many others,conduct myself in a way i never cud or wud if interacting in the real world......this motivates me to think and that is the most important thing you can do scalabrine wen the world is drowning in a tsunami of non-thinking...just doing and following and acting out and going thru the monotonous motions of life
     
    LeagueCapper
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 2:40 AM ET #13

    Solid read, enjoyed it a lot
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    Solid read, enjoyed it a lot
     
    lmb4321
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 2:44 AM ET #14

    LC...you on the Knicks??
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    LC...you on the Knicks??
     
    Zaebaniot
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 2:52 AM ET #15

    Enjoyed reading it! I was so on the Knicks! We got this
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    Enjoyed reading it! I was so on the Knicks! We got this
     
    t6rider
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 2:57 AM ET #16

    You should run for President or something important. I wish I had a morsel of your brain. I feel like an incompetent retard after reading your posts. 
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    You should run for President or something important. I wish I had a morsel of your brain. I feel like an incompetent retard after reading your posts. 
     
    melossinglet
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 3:26 AM ET #17

    hahaha at t6rider....ditto man.

    i think scalabrine wud be of far too high a moral standing than to consider running for any political office ever......men with scruples and integrity need not apply
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    hahaha at t6rider....ditto man.

    i think scalabrine wud be of far too high a moral standing than to consider running for any political office ever......men with scruples and integrity need not apply
     
    begginerboy
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 3:51 AM ET #18

    You are not only all class, Scal, but a true treasure on this site. A fitting eulogy to the man who moved you to write it. I can only hope that when I pass, I am sent off with such kind and caring thoughts. I not only learned about Apache but myself and you and everyone else who is in the same, frustratingly wonderful, angst filled sinking ship (called life) that we are in. 

    As for the pick, I took the Knicks at 5.5 when the line opened. I figured you'd be on it. Maybe when you get a chance you can look at that thread and tell me what you think about my idea of fading the tanking teams (Boston, Orlando, etc...) who are trying to lose out, and whether it is a sound strategy. There is also an article I posted on that thread that you should read.



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    You are not only all class, Scal, but a true treasure on this site. A fitting eulogy to the man who moved you to write it. I can only hope that when I pass, I am sent off with such kind and caring thoughts. I not only learned about Apache but myself and you and everyone else who is in the same, frustratingly wonderful, angst filled sinking ship (called life) that we are in. 

    As for the pick, I took the Knicks at 5.5 when the line opened. I figured you'd be on it. Maybe when you get a chance you can look at that thread and tell me what you think about my idea of fading the tanking teams (Boston, Orlando, etc...) who are trying to lose out, and whether it is a sound strategy. There is also an article I posted on that thread that you should read.



     
    Lifes_A_Gamble
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 3:59 AM ET #19

    Great read Scal .  Go Knicks 
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    Great read Scal .  Go Knicks 
     
    Riverine
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 4:17 AM ET #20

    A moving tribute to Apache, Scal.

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    A moving tribute to Apache, Scal.

     
    Predictorama
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 4:28 AM ET #21

    Thank you for your post, and your thoughts and your picks Scal. God Bless.
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    Thank you for your post, and your thoughts and your picks Scal. God Bless.
     
    James35
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 4:44 AM ET #22

    Great post on many levels.  First, I think it was important for you to work your way through some things given your conflict with the now deceased Apache.  Second, there was a lot of food for thought in general. Finally, the art of expression through the written word is a nearly dead art form, in no small part thanks to "Big Data" and the inundation of information surrounding us 24/7.  

    Well done. 
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    Great post on many levels.  First, I think it was important for you to work your way through some things given your conflict with the now deceased Apache.  Second, there was a lot of food for thought in general. Finally, the art of expression through the written word is a nearly dead art form, in no small part thanks to "Big Data" and the inundation of information surrounding us 24/7.  

    Well done. 
     
    Spect4ting
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 4:45 AM ET #23

    Love it. Still in awe from reading the whole thing. Never did know the guy apache but really respect the fact you did a tribute like this. Great write up scal, really appreciate what you do, and love the insight. Keep it up man.
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    Love it. Still in awe from reading the whole thing. Never did know the guy apache but really respect the fact you did a tribute like this. Great write up scal, really appreciate what you do, and love the insight. Keep it up man.
     
    hozer
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 4:52 AM ET #24

        
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    GuardiaDeMieux
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 7:14 AM ET #25

    To confront this situation with Apache, took courage. You mentioned that your debates with him helped you "grow up". You giving this tribute, being as straightforward as you were, also helped strengthen your character, in my opinion. Very well said...

    As far as the pick goes, I haven't done any handicapping on the NBA yet, today. You've pointed out some interesting angles, though...

    Good luck to you...*shakes hand*
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    To confront this situation with Apache, took courage. You mentioned that your debates with him helped you "grow up". You giving this tribute, being as straightforward as you were, also helped strengthen your character, in my opinion. Very well said...

    As far as the pick goes, I haven't done any handicapping on the NBA yet, today. You've pointed out some interesting angles, though...

    Good luck to you...*shakes hand*
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