24-21 YTD ALL MONEYLINE UNDERDOGS NBA OVERNIGHT PICKS

@Bills2021

I play the Same on every play $1k  no up do down stay the course depending on your Bank roll  my starting Bank Roll this season is $10k I wager 10%  every wager no more no less .so if you wanna start following you bet the same way so you can see the same profit and don’t end up feeling like you need to chase a loss because you wagered you much .

@Bills2021

 + 150

@HEDGEHAWK

Many thanks to you for sharing the techniques. I will try to stick with one same bet as well. Do you think there will be enough dogs for us...sorry probably a stupid question....of course there will be dogs every game day

@HEDGEHAWK

Thanks for the pick!  

Let's Go OKC!

@Themachine11

 OF COURSE THERE IS AWAYS DOGS IN THE NBA THE BEST ABOUT NBA DOGS IS THERE ARE GREAT DOG LINES EVERDAY IN NBA RANGING FROM 150-400 lines lots of money to be made and you can be less than 45% win rate and still make a better profit that -110 at 55% win rate 

So many dogs win early season you just need the balls to find and follow through with them. Also around All Star break, usually after, dogs will go on a run 

@Alexg85

 Why is everybody says you need Balls to bet Underdogs I don’t get it , I look at under dog the same way as favorites, But instead of looking for the value in favorites I look for it in underdogs all season long 

There will be a changing of the guard this season ( THE LAKERS ARE BORING TEAM TO WATCH ) compared to other teams . They younger teams are starting to match up better with the old leg teams , Also with the new scheduling of playing the same team 2-3 times a week you will see more dog winns because they play them so frequently

And yet people still play moneyline faves up to -4. Keep balling HH. 

@jaybucko

Right on ! Betting anything over 2.5 on a fav is a sucker bet

Fave's will come back strong....and start cleaning up.......Books are no dummies unless they would be out of business....OP just has to be able to weather the storm and not get deterred...If betting dogs on ML was this profitable everyone would be doing it... It may work in the beginning of the NBA season or this season may be an anomaly as no fans due to covid.

@HEDGEHAWK

 ppl r just too dumb to relize that and keep picking point spreads -110  like it was imposed on  them playinh not to lose instead of playing to win  .You dumb f...s pay attention school ivoliving basic math and logic is in session.PTS SPREAD means nothing  

@davemsh

 Under dogs in Nba historical stats

39% season win Rate 

45% first month of seasons 

50% last 3 weeks of seasons 

with those stats above there is no value in betting -110 , these stats favor betting season long ML UNDERDOGS 

Of course as the season goes along you have to be more selective on your dog betting,but if your like me and follow the dogs from the start.You get a real since of what dogs match up against the favs.

Secondly Sportsbook have their own tricks like making the dog the fav and fav the dog to make the general public bet a certain way. 

I don’t let the Sportsbook determine who the favorite or underdog is , I do my research and make that decision , most let the book decide for them not me.

@davemsh

People don’t bet underdog because of the gambling mind that the favorite wins all the time , its easy to bet favorites . 

It’s like when I shoot craps I bet to lose and I bet for everybody that shooting to lose . Guess what ? I end up cashing more chip than anybody at the table .

Bet on the side Vegas likes the Underdog .The “Underdog “ is the Books

best friend 

@HEDGEHAWK

I don't play ML Dogs as you do, rather i take the points and make some profits. Thanks for your post.

Betting ML dogs is the for the faint of heart...U need discipline and money management...Its going good now..but faves can easily go 20-0 on the ML next 20 games....Word of caution for anyone that is going to start tailing...Dogs will not keep up this hot start..NOT sustainable...

MLDogs know what's up...He's been around here forever and all he does is play ML Dogs.  seen numerous threads from him throughout the last couple of year complaining how Fave's keep winning...and Dogs do not win consistently enough....

@HEDGEHAWK

You are 24-21 SU on ML Dogs....53%..Great job so far....Even you know that is not sustainable....The best cappers in the world go 55%-58% ATS  You are doing this on the ML for Dogs....

@davemsh

 agree with that it has to balance itself out at some point  however some dogs r going to win regardless u have to be selective

Dogs ATS are something like 62% so far this season..through 3+ weeks.  So what happens when the next 3 weeks the script flips and Faves go 62%+.  Picking that ML dog gets ever harder.....You know fave's will have their run soon... 

@MLdogs

 Well said , Math and Logic 

@chauwagerline

 So what your win rate on those points if you bet 10  spread in a week and win 5 you 50% and you losing the “Vig” so you in the red 

i wager on 10 dog money lines +170 and up I win 4 /10 let’s say I will be in the Green. 

you going to be spending more and stressing more worried about covering speeds and betting more to win less. Does that make any sense ?

@davemsh

 I have been doing this for 5 years I have never had 20-0 straight days of Nba underdogs more weeks or any less than dogs winning 30-40% of the games every week yes there are favorites days but never favorite weeks 

@davemsh

 Has to be the right underdog also because of Inplay you always get money on the other side like I did with the kings last with the kings. 

Nothing is consistent in Sports betting unless you are consistent with your strategy. Every year I come out Nba season $40-50k in the green Betting dogs all season  I’ll finish the season 37-35

@davemsh

 You must understand I go 45-50% on Underdogs that’s making me way more money than any point spread bettors guaranteed, I can take losing streak and still be up $10k  , let show you and example

Spread bettor

bets $1100 to win $1000 he wins $1000 

next day he bets $1100 to win $1000 he loses

now he is -$1000

DOG BETTOR 

Bets $1000 to win $2500 Bettor wins $2500

next day bets $1000 to win $2000 bettor loses 

bettor is still plus profit $1500

next day bets $500 to win $1000 losess

still has $1000 profit 

It’s takes a good underdog bettor a longer time to lose their bank roll as with a favorite bettor is wiped out after one loss

@MLdogs

 Of course there is Balance stopping and starting points as you see sometime s I dont picks for a day or 2 and I don’t bet every single Dog like the Knicks , Raptors bad dogs to bet on last night