Posted:
#376
2-0 ATS, won 6 units
totals --- 0-3, lost 5.71 units
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2016 NBA PLAYOFFS ................................................
Posted:
#377
Quote Originally Posted by FinallyIPost:
Glad I saw your late GS post, over was rough from the start.
Glad I saw your late GS post, over was rough from the start.
Yea the over never had a chance.
Always check back before game starts coz many times I'm waiting out the line, had it dropped another half pt I'd added more units with a 2.5 diff from my finals version.
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Posted:
#378
The incredible shooting efficiency monster rolls on.............
We just wistnessed one of the most dominating game 1 and game 2's in NBA Final history, how's that for revenge ?
When a historically great team does something historically great don't be surprised, in fact one should expect it.
LBJ continues his dreadful shooting performance in HIS NBA Finals career ......
Game 1 --- 9 of 21 = 42.86 %
Game 2 --- 7of 17 = 41.18 %
When the going gets tough VS the best teams the guy folds-up like a pop-tent.
He thrives VS cupcakes......................
The Pundits talked about how he was 1 assist from a triple double game 1, how game 2 he had a solid game, 19 pts, 9 assist and 8 rebs.
The problem with all that talk is he failed miserably at the single most important part of the game which produces winners....FG%.
Those other things he does is good and everything but does not make-up for his dreadful performance in....FG%.
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Posted:
#379
MY LINES..............................................
Cavs -2 over Warriors, game 3
NBA Finals Version of My Lines....................................................
Cavs -2 over Warriors
My lines gives 4 additional desperation pts to teams down 2-0
NBA finals version gives 2 desperation pts for each game a team trails.
We have a 1 pt diff on the Cavs
Warriors now off 5 straight wins and covers plus a 33 pt blow-out win, not a good spot for the Warriors.
Cavs who were due a regression now have played well below their ave to get back to their ave.
Let's wait-out the line and see where it goes, if public backs Warriors driving the line down we'll be on the Cavs, if they back the Cavs and drive the line up we likely pass on the game.
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Posted:
#381
MY LINES...........................
Cavs -2 over Warriors game 3
NBA FINALS VERSION of MY LINES.............................
Cavs -2 over Warriors
Both lines would be the same with the team trailing 2-0 recieving 4 additional desperation points.
Teams down 2-0 since 1992 are 6-5-1 ATS, not much of any advantage to just blindly back a team down 2-0.
MY LINES with a 1 point diff to closing line since 1992, 7-4-1 ATS, a bit better then blindly backing a team down 2-0.
There was 1 team which did lose by half a point that maybe had you got the best available line you could of pushed, Magic game 3 in 2009 VS LA.
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Posted:
#383
Now here's where it gets very interesting....................
As it stands now looks like the majority of books have Cavs -1, that gives us a 1 pt diff to my lines.
Since 1992 that'd be the smallest diff between my lines and the closing line if Cavs -1 holds.
Indicating this line has the least value on the team down 2-0 of any game 3 since 1992.
We must consider that in the finals the 2 teams are much more evenly matched then other rounds at least according to my PR's, which when we give 4 additional desperation bonus pts to the team down 2-0 this creates some big differences between my lines and the actual line which we just do not find here tonight.
Look, with a 4 pt diff or smaller my lines is only 3-3 ATS, with a huge 5 pt diff mostly created by giving those 4 desperation bonus pts, my lines is 4-1-1 ATS.
I know it's a small sample size but this line does not reflect any value on Cavs at all.
And what's even more interesting, the only team to beat a 5 pt diff to my lines..........................the 96 Bulls, the team the Warriores beat their record setting record.rd.
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Posted:
#384
The Warriors are not in a great spot having won 5 straight VS the spread and off a blow-out win is almost always a fade team.
Remember, when the Warriors had their backs against the wall and needed wins last season and this season they responded big time, when this team needs a win they know how to go get it.
Now, the Warriors do not have their backs against the wall tonight, however, they have been disrespected by many because of injuries last season to Cavs and such.
LBJ talked trash about Curry winning MVP, this team just might bring their biggest game of the season tonight and silence all this nonsense talk once and for-all with their play on the court not their talk.
After trailing 3-1 last round and 2-1 last years finals, this team certainly knows the pitfalls of not bringing a big game and falling behind and the hardship and pressure that brings.
Combined this with all the talk and you have the recipe for a Warriors win tonight even coming off those 5 straight wins and covers and a blow-out win.
I pass on this game 3, I do not see and value on either team really, but those who think the Cavs have a certain win tonight might just be in for a big, big surprise.
I would not go putting-up any big plays on this Cavs team tonight., my lines tell the story of little value on the Cavs and the disrespect and the trailing last round and last year tell us something as well..
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Posted:
#386
Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:
Very interested to see your play. 5 straight covers and a blowout; this, from your perspective, points to only one play and that is......THE CAVS. I'm just interested to see if you stay consistent here with your stat driven approach. Either way, always checkin in on the claw.
Very interested to see your play. 5 straight covers and a blowout; this, from your perspective, points to only one play and that is......THE CAVS. I'm just interested to see if you stay consistent here with your stat driven approach. Either way, always checkin in on the claw.
I would almost never go against my stat approach
but what I have done this year is have more respect for other indicators I have and pass on games my stats may take.
I learned this the past 2 or 3 years when I lost game other indicators should of pulled me off those games.
That's one of the reasons I've done very well this year, patience to pass if things pull me off a game.
But I would not bet against my stats if Cavs have at least a 1 pt diff to closing line.
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Posted:
#387
I'm sorry I can't read this anymore. Disrespected again? Let's talk reality here. Every tv station you turn on, russilo, idiot steph a, the jags for anchors for espn and so on, are writing this Cavs team off. Russilo even said last nite that after game 4, they need to start printing the Warriors champs shirts. Then you see curry on the bench going off like a lil boy when they were hitting 3s. It was not like curry to do that but he was doing it nonetheless.does it bother me, nope. But it's disrespect. I get it, Lebron does that too BUT let's call a spade a spade here. The dubs don't get a free pass. What about klay talking about how they are better than the showtime lakers? Joking or not, and regardless if he was asked the question or brought it up, it's disrespectful not to just the Cavs but to the lakers as well. We can nit pick all day claw, God knows you have but you got to get off this imaginary chip on the shoulder bs that you think the dubs are playing with. You make it seem as if the dubs need some made up bulletin board material that really doesn't exist. I'm surprised that you have fallen into the trap of the "line" for this game and that there isn't any value here. What line do you expect bro? 4 or 5? Come on man. I've read your stuff all year including the heat series with Charlotte, the OKC series with the dubs and the Cavs series with the raptors. It seems to me as if you are denouncing your "standards" when it comes to your statistical angle and I can kind of see right through it. I get it bro, you like so many on here have a hard on for the dubs. Just come out and say it. The angle tonite points to the Cavs and the bounce back factor and the come back to earth factor or whatever you call, it is full in effect yet you are talking value with a 1 point line? 5 straight covers and a 33 point blowout constitutes a Cavs play based off of your history with your plays. I'm just dumbfounded that all of the sudden, things change. If anybody is playing with a chip on their shoulder and if anybody has been disrespected indirectly, directly, whatever by both the media and the dubs, it's the Cavs. very surprised with the inconsistency here brotha. It's all coming from a good place but let's get the story straight bud. 
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Posted:
#388
Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:
Very interested to see your play. 5 straight covers and a blowout; this, from your perspective, points to only one play and that is......THE CAVS. I'm just interested to see if you stay consistent here with your stat driven approach. Either way, always checkin in on the claw.
Very interested to see your play. 5 straight covers and a blowout; this, from your perspective, points to only one play and that is......THE CAVS. I'm just interested to see if you stay consistent here with your stat driven approach. Either way, always checkin in on the claw.
Remember, I would on,ly have a play based on regression "IF" my lines fade the team in regression.
With a 1 pt diff we do have my lines fading Warriors, but once I looked into my lines in game 3's going back to 1992 the 1 pt diff does not look all that much as just 3 of the 12 games my lines were under 3 pts.
These are the kind of things I learn year to year but in the past may not have respected them but I learned to have more respect for things I learn each year instead of just staying with the same thing I used last year .
I'm getting more and more into diff spots and such along with my stat approach.
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Posted:
#392
Claw acknowledges it is a bad spot for the W's and a good spot for the Cavs.
Claw is smart enough to know, the bet will be if the Cav can find a way to get this done (Oh Lord please let it happen) there will be extraordinary value on the W's from this point forward.
Claw smart
Leave him alone
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Posted:
#393
Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:
I'm sorry I can't read this anymore. Disrespected again? Let's talk reality here. Every tv station you turn on, russilo, idiot steph a, the jags for anchors for espn and so on, are writing this Cavs team off. Russilo even said last nite that after game 4, they need to start printing the Warriors champs shirts. Then you see curry on the bench going off like a lil boy when they were hitting 3s. It was not like curry to do that but he was doing it nonetheless.does it bother me, nope. But it's disrespect. I get it, Lebron does that too BUT let's call a spade a spade here. The dubs don't get a free pass. What about klay talking about how they are better than the showtime lakers? Joking or not, and regardless if he was asked the question or brought it up, it's disrespectful not to just the Cavs but to the lakers as well. We can nit pick all day claw, God knows you have but you got to get off this imaginary chip on the shoulder bs that you think the dubs are playing with. You make it seem as if the dubs need some made up bulletin board material that really doesn't exist. I'm surprised that you have fallen into the trap of the "line" for this game and that there isn't any value here. What line do you expect bro? 4 or 5? Come on man. I've read your stuff all year including the heat series with Charlotte, the OKC series with the dubs and the Cavs series with the raptors. It seems to me as if you are denouncing your "standards" when it comes to your statistical angle and I can kind of see right through it. I get it bro, you like so many on here have a hard on for the dubs. Just come out and say it. The angle tonite points to the Cavs and the bounce back factor and the come back to earth factor or whatever you call, it is full in effect yet you are talking value with a 1 point line? 5 straight covers and a 33 point blowout constitutes a Cavs play based off of your history with your plays. I'm just dumbfounded that all of the sudden, things change. If anybody is playing with a chip on their shoulder and if anybody has been disrespected indirectly, directly, whatever by both the media and the dubs, it's the Cavs. very surprised with the inconsistency here brotha. It's all coming from a good place but let's get the story straight bud.
I'm sorry I can't read this anymore. Disrespected again? Let's talk reality here. Every tv station you turn on, russilo, idiot steph a, the jags for anchors for espn and so on, are writing this Cavs team off. Russilo even said last nite that after game 4, they need to start printing the Warriors champs shirts. Then you see curry on the bench going off like a lil boy when they were hitting 3s. It was not like curry to do that but he was doing it nonetheless.does it bother me, nope. But it's disrespect. I get it, Lebron does that too BUT let's call a spade a spade here. The dubs don't get a free pass. What about klay talking about how they are better than the showtime lakers? Joking or not, and regardless if he was asked the question or brought it up, it's disrespectful not to just the Cavs but to the lakers as well. We can nit pick all day claw, God knows you have but you got to get off this imaginary chip on the shoulder bs that you think the dubs are playing with. You make it seem as if the dubs need some made up bulletin board material that really doesn't exist. I'm surprised that you have fallen into the trap of the "line" for this game and that there isn't any value here. What line do you expect bro? 4 or 5? Come on man. I've read your stuff all year including the heat series with Charlotte, the OKC series with the dubs and the Cavs series with the raptors. It seems to me as if you are denouncing your "standards" when it comes to your statistical angle and I can kind of see right through it. I get it bro, you like so many on here have a hard on for the dubs. Just come out and say it. The angle tonite points to the Cavs and the bounce back factor and the come back to earth factor or whatever you call, it is full in effect yet you are talking value with a 1 point line? 5 straight covers and a 33 point blowout constitutes a Cavs play based off of your history with your plays. I'm just dumbfounded that all of the sudden, things change. If anybody is playing with a chip on their shoulder and if anybody has been disrespected indirectly, directly, whatever by both the media and the dubs, it's the Cavs. very surprised with the inconsistency here brotha. It's all coming from a good place but let's get the story straight bud.
Remember, you said the same thing about game 2, and the Warriors rolled the Cavs, so you were wrong there.
Your not using disrespect the right way, so what if the Warriors disrespected the Lakers, they are not playing the Lakers so how could that disrespect hurt the Warriors.
Just like game 2 when you said the disrespect would not matter, remember ?
Remember what you said, how LBJ earned the right to talk trash, just like this game 3 those comments are irrelevant to anything about the Warriors bringing a big game because of disrespect.
I have years and years of all kinds of research using many indicators of which not all do I post , for me to post everything I know about history and diff indicators I'd need to write a 30 chapter book with each post.
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Posted:
#394
I picked the dubs in game 2 buddy. I was surprised you didn't have the Cavs in your system but am more surprised with tonite. Plain and simple. I know what you mean by disrespect bud. The Cavs have been disrespected just as much as the dubs. Both the media and the dubs have been participants in that. Let's stop playing that playground, you stole my lunch money card though. Come on brotha Enjoy the game tonite.
Enjoy the game tonite.
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Posted:
#395
Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:
I picked the dubs in game 2 buddy. I was surprised you didn't have the Cavs in your system but am more surprised with tonite. Plain and simple. I know what you mean by disrespect bud. The Cavs have been disrespected just as much as the dubs. Both the media and the dubs have been participants in that. Let's stop playing that playground, you stole my lunch money card though. Come on brotha Enjoy the game tonite.
I picked the dubs in game 2 buddy. I was surprised you didn't have the Cavs in your system but am more surprised with tonite. Plain and simple. I know what you mean by disrespect bud. The Cavs have been disrespected just as much as the dubs. Both the media and the dubs have been participants in that. Let's stop playing that playground, you stole my lunch money card though. Come on brotha
Enjoy the game tonite. Can read your post no. 263 and 262 where you were calling me out for picking the Warriors game 2.
Then later you questioned why I did not make a play on Warriors, you were all over the Cavs game 2 dude.
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Posted:
#397
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Shooting Efficiency has the highest correlation to winning and the highest predictive value going forward.
Shooting Efficiency has the highest correlation to winning and the highest predictive value going forward.
When we combined the mathmatIcal probabilities of PR II with shooting efficiency..............................................
Team better by .75 in PR II and 1% or better in shooting efficiency is........................................12-1 (92.3%) at winning the series since 1980
The only team to lose......you got it, LBJ and his 2011 Heat, when LBJ did not want the ball in crunch time because he could not solve the Mavs defense.
These 13 teams were................................12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS game 1's
After a SU loss.......18-3 SU and 13-8 ATS
Close-out game .....12-3 SU and 10-5 ATS
Started the series 2-0 SU ......6 of 13 times
The 13 previous teams in the Warriors spot are 18-3 SU off a loss.
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Posted:
#400
Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:
Well, he notched a L in game 3. As great as claw is, stats sometimes just don't tell the story. Stats are ONE of the tools one can use to cap a game but again they aren't everything. That's all I want people to understand.
Well, he notched a L in game 3. As great as claw is, stats sometimes just don't tell the story. Stats are ONE of the tools one can use to cap a game but again they aren't everything. That's all I want people to understand.
We all understand that is much more profitable to follow claw and his stats than following you and your random picks.
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