Subway 500 Forecast

Now that the crapshoot in Daytona is over with, things will hopefully get a little more smooth as we see what kind of equipment and competition is brought to the table at Phoenix today.

This is what I have punched in the Forecast for the Subway 500 in Phoenix.  All plays are highlighted in bold.

Subway 500 picks to win outright

David Ragan 100-1 (Large)

Ragan has been quoted as saying that this is the best car that Roush has built him since he has been with them, and after last weeks disappointment, I think he will be determined to get in position to win this race.  The pressure is on Ragan to perform early this year because this is UPS's last contract year and he knows they would love nothing more than to see their car in victory lane early this season.  He feels like he has not only let himself down, but also his team last week and I think he has a great shot to win on Sunday.  He has been fast in practice all week, and was second in happy hour and second in best ten lap consecutive average speed. At 100-1 odds, that's great value from what I have seen from him in practice and the motivation factor from last week.  I am putting a fairly large wager here, and seeing what happens.  

Joey Logono 40-1 (Medium)
Logono is bringing a chassis that has had a lot of success finishing in the top 10 four out of 5 races. Logono has had a good car in practice and he earned top-10 finishes in both events at Phoenix last year where he finished third last fall.  I think he will be around at the end, and will be in the top 5 with 15 to go and a great chance to win. Aside from Charlotte, Logono has been quoted as saying this is his second favorite track on the circuit, and this track fits his driving style well. 

Carl Edwards 6-1 (Small)
Came close last week, and has the setup to get a win this week.  I think Carl is determined to get in victory lane early and prove to be a contender at a track he normally finishes inside the top ten. 


Subway 500 matchups
David Ragan -115 vs. Brad Keselowski -115
Jimmy Johnson +115 vs. Denny Hamlin -145
Mark Martin +190 vs. Kurt Busch -250
Matt Kenseth +105 vs. Greg Biffle -135
Joey Logona -150 vs. Jeff Burton +120

Top 5 Doppler Radar
1. David Ragan
2. Joey Logano
3. Carl Edwards
4. Mark Martin
5. Kyle Busch

Best of luck to everyone today regardless of your plays

FF

Made a few typo's with LOGANO, sorry, it's early.                              I have him at 20-1 outright

I found books taking action on Ragan anywhere from 50-1 to 100-1 still, which surprised me post-qualifying, last practice.  He is a long shot, but obviously couldn't refuse taking him at 100-1 where I have him.  If you can grab him at 75-100-1, it's worth a sprinkle.   

good morning and good luck FF

GL.  Love the Logano play.

GL, but I think this is a 2 man race today between Kyle and Carl....I have some longshots like you too, but just don't see them coming in today. Really think Carl walks away with the win rather easily today.

Interesting angles and plays.

Ragan.....  

Who is your pick? And tell me a driver that will finish ahead of Ragan today.

Im on Ragan as well bud.

Also Ragan over Kez.

good to see you in here Floyd.

  There went my dark horse, hard lick, but had no chance after suffering damage in the big one earlier

If picking cars that ended up in the garage with no fenders counted as a win, I would have had a great week.  I was happy to see Jeff Gordon back in victory lane once again.  I think we will be seeing more of that as the season progresses. Nothing close this week, but I will see everyone next week at Vegas.   

Jimmy Johnson +115 vs. Denny Hamlin -145
Matt Kenseth +105 vs. Greg Biffle -135
David Ragan -115 vs. Brad Keselowski -115
Mark Martin +190 vs. Kurt Busch -250
Joey Logano -150 vs. Jeff Burton +120

Pound em next week.

Ragan had a solid car today. I'm beginning to think David just doesn't have what it takes at this level. Wish him the best, but either he ain't good enough or he just has some major bad luck.

Like your insight. See you next Sunday