Sonoma

In an attempt to forget last week, I thought I'd start a thread about the upcoming race.

Ambrose and Montoya I think have to be favorites.  I also really like Allmendinger.  He's a great road course driver, and he's driving the car that won this race last year.  I'll be interested to see how Kurt does in his POS car.  No doubt he's got the road course skills, but his car sucks.

I'll have to do a little more research, but if memory serves correct this is a track that the fords (Bif, Kenseth, Edwards) just try and get in and get out.  Especially Kenseth.  Might be a good race to fade.  Thoughts?

I like AJ a little more at Watkins, but we may see a really good line on him because of how awful his season has gone. However, you're right about the car he's driving--that 22 car pretty much spanked the field when nobody was expecting it.

Actually----just looked. 5dimes has the 22 car listed at +4400.. there's no way I'm leaving that alone.

Ambrose at +350 and Stewart at +650. They have Kenseth at +11000. Heh.

this is ambrose's race unless he can't restart the car under caution while trying 2 save fuel or gets burned by a late race caution.. few others that might give him a race r tony and juan.   2 sleepers with a good price r mcmurray and hamlin..       as for the fords kenseth and biffle r bad at road courses   carl at 25-1 isn't that bad of a price..   bol 2 all this weekend      road courses r 1 of my favorite races of the year....

No doubt this is the 9's race to lose but there will be zero value here.
I think Kurt, Dinger and JMac are worth a look as longshots.
Johnny Montoya had a good race last week and comes in with a little momentum. He'll be my pick along with the 24.

24 at 8-1 looks good to me.

I very rarely take anything on drivers to win.  But +4400 on Allmendinger is way too good.  I took 1/2 a unit

on AJ myself, will start to set up a parlay for later in the week for Ambrose....no way in hell do I only get 3-1 on a driver for the win.....atleast not in Cup.

i don't usually ever play qual. match up's  but this week there r a few that look good 2 me??  marcos-kahne -150   juan-carl -115  any thoughts ?  do these look 2 good 2 b true??

Juan-Carl is unbelievable.  The odds may be a little too much for marcos-kahne.  Kahne is pretty good at this track.  I didn't even notice the qualifying matchups til you mentioned them.    I'm on juan-carl for sure.

Dinger down to 30-1 from an opening of 44-1......guess you could see where all the smart money is going early.

stats,

chances are Ambrose out Q's Kahne, but kahne isn't too shabby in Qing on road coarses.....too much juice imo.

Kahne has won 2 poles here in the last 4 races and now his stuff is all around better......I would be careful with that one....

I agree with Hunt. I'll stay off Marcos although he'll prob get the pole.

What I don't understand is the JPM/Horsehead line....Im on that.

 

GL this week

Gordon is a real threat to win this week now with nothing to lose.

I'm at Cedar Point today...couple matchups I liked...I think you guys are on them already...

Dinger over menard
Singer over McMurray

Good luck today everyone!!!