Save Mart/Toyota 350 @ Infineon

CUP YTD

+07.83 units (Match-Ups)
- 11.85 units (Props/FP)
- 10.78 units (Outrights)

Total: -14.80 units

Match-ups

2.00 units AJ Allmendinger (-135) over Paul Menard (@5dimes)
Love this match-up. Dinger has an extensive background on road courses and his last 3 finishes in Cup on this type track yielded results of 13th, 7th and 11th (the 7th was at Infineon last year). Menard's best finish on a road course in 8 starts in Cup is 19th...best at Infineon is 21st.

2.00 units Clint Bowyer (-120) over Robby Gordon (@5dimes)
Have no faith at all in Gordon, good roadie but between poor strategy and Robby's occasional brain cramps he always seems to come away with below average finishes(hasn't finished better than 16th in 6 races here with an avg. of 29.66)

On the other hand Bowyer is surprisingly strong here 8.0 avg. in 4 career starts.

1.50 units Denny Hamlin (+100) over Kurt Busch (@thegreek)
Riding the momentum with Hamlin plus not a bad driver on this track with 3 Top 12's in 4 starts including a 5th last year.

1.50 units Jeff Burton (+115) over Carl Edwards (@sportsbook.com)
Burton has to overcome poor starting position but has a very fast piece...was 2nd and 3rd in the two Saturday practices and the 3rd overall fastest avg. in Happy Hour.
Road course ability is about even, Burton with an edge in equipment and has been more focused with Carl running the NWS race in Wisconsin yesterday.

Props/FP

3.00 units Denny Hamlin (+100) to finish Top 10 (@5dimes)
Big play for me. Only way I see these guys not Top 10 is to get beat on strategy or having a problem (mechanical, accident etc).
Don't see Mike Ford and JGR making a strategic mistake and the equipment has been as reliable as Denny has ever had, so as long as he keeps his head on straight
this looks good

2.00 units Jeff Burton (-125) under 13.5 (@5dimes)
AS steady as Burton is and as strong as this car is this one is another that looks really good

1.00 unit Clint Bowyer (+235) to finish Top 10 (@5dimes)
Has finished better than this number 3 years in a row

1.00 unit AJ Allmendinger (+300) to finish Top 10 (@5dimes)
Dinger ran 7th here last year

Outrights

1.00 unit Marcos Ambrose (+390) @thegreek
This looks like his race to lose because no one on this track will beat him on ability (JPM is the only one that is close and don't think he has the car) and he was fastest in both practices yesterday as well as fastest overall avg. speed in Happy Hour

0.33 unit Denny Hamlin (+1800) @thegreek
Why not? Nice price on the hot driver

0.20 unit Jeff Burton (+4000) @sportsbook.com
Hungry driver and was very fast on Saturday


With a lot riding on this race, another bad day and I'm probably through for a while. This has been a sucky first half for me, but hoping for a good one today.

Good luck to everyone!

CUP YTD

+07.83 units (Match-Ups)
- 11.85 units (Props/FP)
- 10.78 units (Outrights)

Total: -14.80 units

Match-ups

2.00 units AJ Allmendinger (-135) over Paul Menard (@5dimes)
Love this match-up. Dinger has an extensive background on road courses and his last 3 finishes in Cup on this type track yielded results of 13th, 7th and 11th (the 7th was at Infineon last year). Menard's best finish on a road course in 8 starts in Cup is 19th...best at Infineon is 21st.

2.00 units Clint Bowyer (-120) over Robby Gordon (@5dimes)
Have no faith at all in Gordon, good roadie but between poor strategy and Robby's occasional brain cramps he always seems to come away with below average finishes(hasn't finished better than 16th in 6 races here with an avg. of 29.66)

On the other hand Bowyer is surprisingly strong here 8.0 avg. in 4 career starts.

1.50 units Denny Hamlin (+100) over Kurt Busch (@thegreek)
Riding the momentum with Hamlin plus not a bad driver on this track with 3 Top 12's in 4 starts including a 5th last year.

1.50 units Jeff Burton (+115) over Carl Edwards (@sportsbook.com)
Burton has to overcome poor starting position but has a very fast piece...was 2nd and 3rd in the two Saturday practices and the 3rd overall fastest avg. in Happy Hour.
Road course ability is about even, Burton with an edge in equipment and has been more focused with Carl running the NWS race in Wisconsin yesterday.

Props/FP

3.00 units Denny Hamlin (+100) to finish Top 10 (@5dimes)
Big play for me. Only way I see these guys not Top 10 is to get beat on strategy or having a problem (mechanical, accident etc).
Don't see Mike Ford and JGR making a strategic mistake and the equipment has been as reliable as Denny has ever had, so as long as he keeps his head on straight
this looks good

2.00 units Jeff Burton (-125) under 13.5 (@5dimes)
AS steady as Burton is and as strong as this car is this one is another that looks really good

1.00 unit Clint Bowyer (+235) to finish Top 10 (@5dimes)
Has finished better than this number 3 years in a row

1.00 unit AJ Allmendinger (+300) to finish Top 10 (@5dimes)
Dinger ran 7th here last year

Outrights

1.00 unit Marcos Ambrose (+390) @thegreek
This looks like his race to lose because no one on this track will beat him on ability (JPM is the only one that is close and don't think he has the car) and he was fastest in both practices yesterday as well as fastest overall avg. speed in Happy Hour

0.33 unit Denny Hamlin (+1800) @thegreek
Why not? Nice price on the hot driver

0.20 unit Jeff Burton (+4000) @sportsbook.com
Hungry driver and was very fast on Saturday


With a lot riding on this race, another bad day and I'm probably through for a while. This has been a sucky first half for me, but hoping for a good one today.

Good luck to everyone!