Futures Bet Dilemma. Please help!!!!

I get $2500 if Carl Edwards to win the Championship. I understand the newness of Phoenix makes the race a bit of a wildcard. I heard that Tony Stewart was fastest in testing which makes me nervous about my bet. At Homestead I am confident in Carl but not if he trails by more than 5 points. I am entertaining the thought of hedging with up to $500 on Tony.

Depends on how important 2500 is to you. I mean there is breaking point on how much would hurt if you lost. If its scared money then hedge.  For what its worth I think Nascar has a lot to do with momentum therefore I like Tony

The most Ive ever won on a sporting event is $1000 so $2500 is a pretty big amount. Would you hedge this race at -150 with the possibility to win both bets? Or would you hedge the championship at -110? Thanks for any insight!

you can loose the hedge and still have the same exact problem next week. I'd stand pat this week and wait till next week to hedge. gl

 

My advice too as this week so up in air

bet smoke 2 win the championship, bet smoke 2 beat carl this week and next week!!!   carl was supposed 2 beat smoke at texas and he didn't  carl's luck runs out this week at phoenix as hamlin's did last year..    carl will b lucky 2 get out of phoenix with a top 15!!   smoke rolls 2 his 3rd c.ship at homestead and i will b there         kasey kahne for  12 champion!!!

i'd hedge Tony to win the championship before the phoenix race

Neither driver will be out of it next week. I would hold tight and look at my options then. There could be some really good value plays then.Edwards will be very tough at Homestead.

I'm rooting for Smoke though because I can't stand ol Horsehead.

I think if you are gonna hedge now is the time. I think Tony beats Carl this weekend but thats too juicy. play Tony to win championship.  What kind of odds do you have on Carl? What was your risk amount and win amount?  

NoWorries21- I got him early at 7-1 and later at 3-1. I have about $400 bet to win $2100.

I dont like the phoenix hedge. I would have just hedged 440 to win 400 on stwart to win championship. Then if Stewart wins u break even. If carl wins you make almost 1700

NW. i agree about the hedge this week. especially considering the excessive Juice.

If Tony is going to win the cup he is going to have to beat Carl this week. If that happens history tells me that Carl shouldnt be far behind (worst finish in Chase is 11th). Therefore I felt like the worstcase scenario for me next week would be Tony -180 or so to win it all. I could then roll my $200 from Phoenix on him to win Cup and turn into $300-350 when if I just bet the -110 now I would have $230. Not to mention I could possibly win the matchup this week and win with Carl (in case I didnt feel like hedging next week). Regardless I hope I lose both bets!

            cmon MAN!!!!   did u not read this!!!!!!

 

Now you can hedge with Smoke at +115 to win it.  Bet your $400 to win $460 sit back and relax and root for Carl... if Smoke wins you'll make $60 If Carl wins you'll make $1700. Its a win win.

 

Bet Stewart to win at Homestead.  Pretty much if Smoke doesn't win on Sunday he loses the Chase.  If smoke wins you hit +$500 and lose your Edwards bet.  If smoke loses you lose the Stewart play and win your big Edwards play.

not sure how you came up with that

   what if it comes down to fuel mileage??  tony finishes 7th carl 17th    tony will b      ding dong!!!!   

just  3 spots very doable and he wins tiebreaker

 

You are correct.  This is not a full proof plan but chances are they will be very close to each other on the track. 

 

 If fuel mileage does come into play I would think Stewart has the advantage....thoughts???

I used "pretty much" and "chances are" in my last 2 posts trying to justify a wager.  This is why I am not a professional gambler...ha

As of today, you're wager is $400 to win $2,100 (I'm assuming the $2,100 is all profit).  The loss of $120 in Phoenis and a live wager of $260 to win $240 on the 14 @ -110 from last week. So many possiblities exist, let's look at a few.

scratch that, I see the Championship Odds are also posted in the Match Up section

I only hedged due to the unknown of Phoenix and with Carl still leading I have decided to let it ride and not hedge anymore. Carl has won 2 of the last 3 at Homestead and his mile and a half record this year is ridiculous so Im gonna roll the dice. 

 

Me either!!