FORMULA ONE 2015 THREAD

It's BAAAAAACCCKKKKKK!!!!!!!!!!!

Probably my favorite sport to handicap.  There's something about getting up at 4 am, making a bomb-ass bloody mary, watching an F1 race and then going back to bed that I love about this sport.  

Last year I started off with 10 straight profitable races, and then struggled to finish out the year.  I feel like as the year went on the odds got worse and worse, so if that continues this year I may bet until the odds get worse and then stop.  We'll see.

Much different story lines this year compared to last year.  Last year it was all about the new engines…this year it's all about the new teams.  I think we will see pretty similar names at the top this year, but a couple of new names will be in the top 6.  I guess we can start with the teams.

Mercedes (Hamilton and Rosberg)
Not much will change with this team.  They will be the fastest all year unless someone surprises, and Rosberg and Hamilton will fight for the championship.  I did find value in taking Rosberg to win poles.  He qualified well, and was always at plus money so I may jump on that bet all year.

Red Bull (Ricciardo and Kvyat)
Ricciardo surprised a lot last year with how good he was right out of the gate.  No doubt this guy is going to win multiple championships over his career.  He's no joke.  As for his new teammate, I kind of like the move.  Vettel had a great run, but why not bring in young guys when you're building new engines.  I trust Red Bulls decision making on drivers, and if Kvyat is good enough to replace Vettel, he's good enough for me to support.  I will probably make some plays on him this year.  The only thing that brings me hesitation is the lack of consistency and reliability the engines have shown in testing.  Hopefully those bugs are worked out.

Williams (Bottas and Massa)
Bottas has lots of talent, but he was my kryptonite last year.  Whenever I would support him he would disappoint me.  Whenever I would lay off, he would shine.  Massa and Bottas took turns finishing ahead of each other even though Williams would prefer to see Bottas ahead of Massa all the time.  That being said, these guys occasionally could keep up with Mercedes last year…I expect them to be strong again.

Ferrari (Vettel and Raikkonen)
They have improved dramatically since last year, so expect them to be consistently battling for top 6 spots.  Not sure they have enough to crack the top 3, but they will be way better than last year.  Not sure how to handicap these guys, but I'm pretty sure Vettel will be finishing ahead of Raikkonen consistently.  Vettel may be racing with a chip on his shoulder this year, so it will be interesting to see if he races aggressively, or like his normal whiney ways.

McLaren (Alonso and Button)
Their testing has been a disaster, and now Alonso is out for the first race.  According to the substitute driver (Kevin Magnussen), a former Red Bull aerodynamicist has made a big difference recently.  Still not sure how these new Honda's will do at the beginning so it will be a few races before I can support or fade these guys.

Force India
I really liked the Force India cars a few years ago, and Hulkenberg had the greatest betting streak of all time for me with his top 10 finishes, but last year was a joke.  They have made some changes, but they are admittedly behind the other teams.  Improvement is always a possibility, but these guys are going to get blown off the track again by the top teams, especially early on.


I'll have bets posted later this week when they release opening lines for the race this weekend!

GL this year everyone!

First picks of the season are in...

Based on all the testing, and reports I'm going to be staying away from the Red Bulls, and McLarens.  In fact, I'm going to predict some trouble for these cars.  The McLarens could be slow, and the Red Bulls have had reliability issues.  There's a pretty good chance one or both of the Red Bull cars may not make it through the first few races without serious mechanical trouble.  I think that paves the way for a few bets today.

Hamilton +100 to win.
Bottas -200 top 6
Massa -150 top 6

Here's my risky pick for the weekend.

Maldonado +100 top 11

Maldonado and Grosjean could be sneaky fast this year, especially compared to the other mid-pack cars.  I think at least two of the Red Bulls, or McLarens struggle and the Lotus's can sneak into the top 10. 

That's it for now...we'll see if there are more matchups after qualifying

I like watching it,,,,, but have nowhere near the knowledge you do,,,, may tail a few of your picks ,,,,,, Good Luck alan 

Hey Alan, what's up brother!!!! Nice job thus far on your UFC free roll. Got a couple of prop bets to throw out there. All for $10, drivers first Rosberg (+225), Riccardo (+1050), Vettel (+1500), Bottas(+2500), and Kimi(field +600). Teams are Ferrari(+1000), Red Bull(+1000), and Williams (+1000).

Couple thoughts here about F1. I'll start with Ferrari, of course lol. Both guys like the car and we brought back Rory Bryne part time to help!!! Not saying we are gonna beat Mercedes but at least we will be fighting for podiums. Kimi could be sneaky good this year!!! I think Alan made great points with the other teams but watch out for Grosjean, if the car is decent he can get you early money before the books adjust. He might be this years Alan's hulkenberg!!!!

On a sad note to all the F1 guys out there, this will be the first year in 30 years I'll be watching F1 by myself. My Dad passed in December and we watched it faithfully since I was 15, going to Indy etc. Now I know my Dad has found Jimmy Clark and Gilles Villeneuve, his 2 favorites to watch it with them, so Saturday night/Sunday morning raise a glass and salute are fallen F1 drivers!!!!

Sorry to hear about your Dad, Ferrari ,,,,,,,, so many great memories im sure,,,,,,,,      ill raise one up to all in The Speedway In The Sky

My Dad got me into F1 as a kid. I'll always remember watching Alain Prost, and Aryton Senna (my favorite driver) with my Dad. I'm so sorry for your loss. Let's have a great year in F1 and remember the great times.

Ferrari

thanks Twofan!!!!!!

Just a funny story about how my dad and I got along. He was McLaren and I am Ferrari, so how you think that a few of are years have gone over, lol.

The Ferrari car last year was totally set up for Alonso, nowhere near how Kimi or for that matter Massa likes their set up. Now enter Vettel, who like Kimi have similiar set ups. I cannot stress how much Rory Bryne helps this team, plus he was going out when Kimi won it all for Ferrari.

Just to follow up on Alan's plays, guys he's legit trust me!!!!!!!! I joined August of last year and went back to look at Alan's record, the stats don't lie. I recommend you go see for yourself if you don't believe. One more thing, unlike 90% of the threads on Covers please don't troll or girl F1 isn't the easiest sport to bet, if it was there would be a thousand peeps in here chatting about it.

Thank you Ferrari

Mercedes is gonna finish 40 seconds ahead of everyone else.

Hometown gp tomorrow 

Yeah, that was a great qualifying session for my picks. Hope the race follows suit.

unless the car breaks down, they might lap the field, lol.

Sorry to hear about your dad.
Jimmy Clark was a fantastic racer, one of my favorites as well..
Enjoy the race tonight, and cheers to your dad.

Alan, any match ups for race ?  

They put up Hamilton -290 over Hukkenberg...I think they meant it to be over Nico Rosberg though. I'll take that if they don't take it off.

Added Vettel top 6

Let me look a little further...

Jump on that. Heritage has Hamilton at -270 over the field.

Vettel -180 over Kimi. That's a really good one

Here's an interesting one...
Sainz -165 over Verstappen

I don't know much about either driver, but Sainz has been faster this week.