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Why would anybody bet on the Yankees today?

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Captain
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Posted: #26
Yanks are much better than than the O's hands down.  O's have nothing but an average lineup.  
 
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Posted: #27

Quote Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

Yanks are much better than than the O's hands down.  O's have nothing but an average lineup.  

The Orioles have better pitching. Look at the low scoring games.

 
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Posted: #28
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by Exceller:

 

If I told you, I'd get banned

 

Just trust me




All about the chase
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by Absolutxedge22:

The Orioles have better pitching. Look at the low scoring games.

I disagree.  For the season: Yankees starters SIERA = 3.71 #4 in MLB
WAR rating = 14.8

O's starters SIERA = 4.23 #21 in MLB
WAR rating = 10.2

recent stats favor the Yanks also..

Bullpens: very close 
 
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Posted: #31
and I was also referring to the O's hitters being average. Yanks hitting WAY above avg. 
 
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Posted: #32
its The Orioles time BOL
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by bbkdta:

and also "theres no value on the losing bet, doesnt matter if its 50/50 game"


I'm going to disagree with this pretty strongly.  Of course you're right if you're talking about 1 game, but creating positive EV is the KEY to sports betting.  No one bets only 1 game a year.  I might not win this game tonight, but I think if they played 10 times the O's win 4 (or more), that makes them the right play at +180 in my eyes.

Over the long run, betting with value will pay off.  Taking a heavy favorite that doesn't win this game 70%+ of the time will NOT.
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by Exceller:

This is Sabathias FIRST ever "winner take all" game

 

Hammels been here before-

Actually this is also hammers first winner take all game
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by bbkdta:

and also "theres no value on the losing bet, doesnt matter if its 50/50 game"
I see people say this all the time.  Fucking stupidest thing I've ever heard.

So.. if you had to pay 1 dollar on the O's and got 1 million dollars if they won and they lost.  You're saying that the bet had no "value"?!! And that you wouldn't take that bet over and over again?

Stupid..
 
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Posted: #36
Hammels has a 6.20 career era versus NYY
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

I disagree.  For the season: Yankees starters SIERA = 3.71 #4 in MLB
WAR rating = 14.8

O's starters SIERA = 4.23 #21 in MLB
WAR rating = 10.2

recent stats favor the Yanks also..

Bullpens: very close 

I would say the Yankees have better starting pitching. However, I would take the Orioles bullpen over the Yankees. Yes, Jim Johnson has struggled twice against the Yankees in the postseason. But, if you want to talk about regular season how about this. The Orioles took 2 out 3 at Yankee Stadium all three times this season. What do they have to do to advance? Take 2 out 3 in New York. All the pressure is on the Yankees.

 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

I see people say this all the time.  Fucking stupidest thing I've ever heard.

So.. if you had to pay 1 dollar on the O's and got 1 million dollars if they won and they lost.  You're saying that the bet had no "value"?!! And that you wouldn't take that bet over and over again?

Stupid..
That example is even more stupid than what you're calling stupid
 
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Posted: #39
You missed your chance last night at the plus money. This is where the Yanks close it out and win by 2+ runs to eat that Balti +1.5 run money too.
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by Trey_Dogg:

That example is even more stupid than what you're calling stupid
how so?  Its a perfect example.  You're saying a bet has no value if it loses.  I'm just giving an exaggerated example where there is CLEAR value in a bet.

If you want a more realistic example.. just pick a number that suits your ignorance
 
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Posted: #41
betting lines that have "value" is what moneyline betting is about.  A 5 year old could tell you who should win 
 
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Posted: #42
It's a perfectly unrealistic never going to happen in your dreams example.  That's why it's stupid
 
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Posted: #43
Cc looks to be on form.  Yanks need to work these counts and wear down hammels
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

how so?  Its a perfect example.  You're saying a bet has no value if it loses.  I'm just giving an exaggerated example where there is CLEAR value in a bet.

If you want a more realistic example.. just pick a number that suits your ignorance
And BTW I never said that at all, I wasn't arguing your original point that there's no value in a losing bet
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by Trey_Dogg:

It's a perfectly unrealistic never going to happen in your dreams example.  That's why it's stupid
its just to prove a point.. 

sure its unrealistic, but my point is that there is value in a line even if it loses.  Whether its 10 cents or 100 grand.. doesn't matter.

Saying there is no value in a losing bet is just stupid or ignorant.. not sure which.
 
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Posted: #46
Exceller, why don't you keep any type of record for your plays?

I'm sure I'm not the only one who is curious 
 
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Posted: #47
and its not completely unrealistic (maybe in baseball)

Take the lottery for example..

there can be value in a 1 dollar ticket if the pot is big enough 
 
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Posted: #48
sometimes you have to over exaggerate a point so some of the dimmer bulbs on this site can understand it b/c they obviously don't understand "realistic" examples. (i.e baseball moneylines) 


 
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Posted: #49
Would like to see Yanks win 4-2 or 5-2 but I think that is a tall order now.  Don't know why I took yanks rl.  Most definitely Yanks have better bats but that was in regular season, little league can hit more than them right now.  
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by Absolutxedge22:

I would say the Yankees have better starting pitching. However, I would take the Orioles bullpen over the Yankees. Yes, Jim Johnson has struggled twice against the Yankees in the postseason. But, if you want to talk about regular season how about this. The Orioles took 2 out 3 at Yankee Stadium all three times this season. What do they have to do to advance? Take 2 out 3 in New York. All the pressure is on the Yankees.

bullpens are a coinflip.. like I said.  I like the O's pen too.

Umm.. as for the rest.  I don't disagree with any of it so..

but just b/c the O's beat them in them in the regular season, doesn't make them the better team.  In baseball, you can outplay your opponent and still lose.  Its what makes this game different than most others

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