Posted:
#1
Team is on pace to win 104 games.. discounted lines all season for them. -165 at home?
Mayweather bet 450000 on
Why is the orioles line so low
Posted:
#6
Quote Originally Posted by davemsh:
I@jesron1269 U think the cards are hot? Go look at the orioles record… 25-11 since August…including 7-2 this month. if this was the Dodgers or Braves… line would be -220 with a similar pitcher
I@jesron1269 U think the cards are hot? Go look at the orioles record… 25-11 since August…including 7-2 this month. if this was the Dodgers or Braves… line would be -220 with a similar pitcher
Uh, yeah, the Cards are mashing the ball in L10. Think that is safe to say.
Pretty sure more goes into the Dodgers and Braves demanding more juice than the STL Cardinals... So that's irrelevant.
You asked, he gave you his two cents.
Personally, line seems accurate. I think it's gonna be a shootout and a few walks and an error could be the difference between a few solo HRs and a few 3-4 run HRs.
Posted:
#7
Quote Originally Posted by Robards:
@jesron1269 Lol..umm the Cards are not hot.
@jesron1269 Lol..umm the Cards are not hot.
For the Card they sure as hell are. They are not the team that was been rolling over to everyone lately. They have teeth.
Plus like I said this isn’t the best Baltimore line up possible and Batista being out as perhaps the best closer in baseball isn’t not nothing either
Posted:
#10
BLT up only 8 units at home compared to 28 units away
Last 10 at home up less than 2 units compared to up 6 units away
STL down 24 units at home but only down 8 away
Last 10 at home down 3 units but up 2.5 units away
So, even though I think BLT wins, I think the number is about right.
There is just less value on BLT at home and more value lately on STL on the road
BLT is skewed that way and has been all year. Oddsmakers have been adjusting their numbers to account for that lately.
Because, you are correct, if they were like other teams and had a better record at home — they would have a much higher number.
I think they win because they need to stay hot, even at home. But I think the number is about right.
Posted:
#12
Yes, the Redbirds have been somewhat hot with the bats in September, winning their last two series. But it's Kremer who has been really hot: 0.54 ERA last three games pitched, 1.08 WHIP over 16 innings.
The O's have been pretty hot too. They've either swept or won their last 7 series. That's hot.
RT2
Posted:
#14
Quote Originally Posted by RebelTell2:
Yes, the Redbirds have been somewhat hot with the bats in September, winning their last two series. But it's Kremer who has been really hot: 0.54 ERA last three games pitched, 1.08 WHIP over 16 innings. The O's have been pretty hot too. They've either swept or won their last 7 series. That's hot. RT2
Yes, the Redbirds have been somewhat hot with the bats in September, winning their last two series. But it's Kremer who has been really hot: 0.54 ERA last three games pitched, 1.08 WHIP over 16 innings. The O's have been pretty hot too. They've either swept or won their last 7 series. That's hot. RT2
I am hoping so. Hope they win tonight. But it would not surprise me if they lose 2 of 3.
Posted:
#15
Quote Originally Posted by Robards:
@Raiders22 The Cards are playing better but Again not a stat that means much to me,but a weaker Baltimore line up is something to consider
@Raiders22 The Cards are playing better but Again not a stat that means much to me,but a weaker Baltimore line up is something to consider
If you bet, it should mean something to you? That simply shows that the Cards have been hotter than they should be on the road and you would make money wagering on them on the road. Conversely, you would not be making money wagering on BLT at home lately.
I agree the lineups matter also. But also the sense of playoff urgency. I think Baltimore wins — but they have got to start winning the games at home that they should win.
Hopefully they do tonight.
Posted:
#17
Lines up over 170 most places around here probably close to where it should be. Kremer has been a little under the weather and as stated Cards bat's woke up in Atlanta. My families huge Oriole fans but I'm not gonna lie I keep waiting for them to disappoint everyone. Like having a long shot horse dominate a race but you know coming around turn 4 that s.o.b is gonna fall back. Let's Go O's
Posted:
#19
Quote Originally Posted by Robards:
@Raiders22 4/6 the most recent road trip,1/6 the road trip before that ,so no it doesnt mean that much to me. The O's are the hotter team and the much better team.
@Raiders22 4/6 the most recent road trip,1/6 the road trip before that ,so no it doesnt mean that much to me. The O's are the hotter team and the much better team.
It is not the W/L % so much as the units +/- I am not disagreeing with you. I am just saying they are up more lately on the road than BLT is at home -- units-wise.
I am also simply saying BLT is much better to wager on when they are on the road. This is one of the reasons the number was as low as it was.
But I agree that STL was playing over their heads. But ATL and CIN are good teams and they took 2/3 from both of them on the road.
Posted:
#20
This is a key way to look at it: they should win but you cannot be as comfortable with them as you would like to be. For example:
The Orioles have won 21 of Dean Kremer’s 28 starts this season, but the right-hander’s underlying metrics are worth noting. Kremer’s 4.42 SIERA and 4.64 FIP are worse than his ERA, and with his 42.0% hard-hit rate and 9.5%-barrel rate I don’t love putting my money into his hands. That being said, Kremer is still easily the preferred starting option in today’s game thanks to his superior command and his ability to work 6 innings with some regularity. Felix Bautista remains out for the Orioles bullpen but in the 16 days without him their unit still ranks 4th in ERA, 6th in wOBA, 6th in K-BB%, 5th in WHIP and 2nd in FIP. The Cardinals offense is likely to score some runs in this game, but the Orioles’ superior pitching staff should make the difference and lead them to another win.
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