Why Halladay will edge out Kershaw

https://www.dobberbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2554:clayton-kershaws-not-as-good-as-you-think&catid=904:deep-sea-diving&Itemid=117

I have found multiple articles similiar to this one today and it says it all. I really think that K's is a terrible way to measure a pitcher. K/BB ratio is a MUCH better way to measure a pitcher. They have identical numbers in ERA, IP, Wins, but Halladay is far ahead when SABRmetrics is brought into the picture. Things like WAR, xFIP, FIP, and BABIP are a true indication of a pitcher, and Halladay edges out Kershaw in all these categories. Kershaw also pitches in a pitcher friendly park, while Halladay pitches in a hitter friendly park. I hate when people say Kershaw got 20 wins on a bad team, well so what? Whether his team puts up 10 runs or 1 run it doesn't effect how many runs he will give up. Taking into account advanced statistics as well, Halladay should win fairly easily.

Comments and opinions are encouraged. And please don't say SABRmetrics are usless or I'll have to send you to people who know what they are talking about (i.e. BODIO)

3 words

Pitching Triple Crown

I have a couple of questions for you. Is a difference of 0.07 era of any real significance? Aboslutely NOT. Is a better pitcher one who K's more batters, or has a better K/BB ratio? I think K/BB is much more significant. Wins we know are pretty irrelevant. We know that WAR, FIP, xFIP, and BABIP are a clear indication of a pitcher, and Halladay edges Kershaw out in all of them. So now I would like you to further explain why you think someone who was significantly luckier according to advanced stats (Kershaw), who had a worse K/BB ratio (Kershaw), who pitched in a pitcher friendly ballpark (evident by a 1.3era at home and 2.9era on the road), pitched more games against terrible hitting teams like the Padres and Giants, should get the award over someone who had bsaically the same era in a hitter friendly park, had the best WAR, FIP, xFIP, and BABIP in the league, and just flat out dominated more quality teams.

Looking forward to how you can argue this.

Quote Originally Posted by str8shot:

Halladay

Kershaw

That is a horrible answer. If this truly was the case, you would be able to back this up with real facts and evidence backing up your opinion. Your like so many people on covers, posting without explaining, what's the point?

All you have to do is look at Baseball totals to see that pitching on the West Coast has its adavantages.

I'm a firm believer in Sabremetrics and trying to find out how good a guy really is rather than how lucky he may be given a certain situation.

Yeah, poor Halladay. It's too bad he pitched on a team THAT EVERYBODY ON THE PLANET PICKED TO GO TO THE SERIES.

Can you tell me how many pitchers have won the ERA title, most wins, and most strikeouts, and did not win the Cy Young?

I look forward to your answer.

Quote Originally Posted by hutasadorn:

You might be right that Halladay had a great season. But he's not going to win compared to how he's won it before and the stats he put up in those seasons. He wasn't as dominant this year winning 20+. That's probably a sad way to look at it but it's true.

In the meantime, Kershaw was absolutely dominant. He dominated at home in a pitcher friendly park, but you can't really count that against him. "He pitched well because he pitched in a pitcher friendly park."

It's hard to argue that one man deserves it outright over another, as there's always a case for one to win over the other (ie...Kennedy...even Lee.)

An argument could be made that Lee deserves the award more than Halladay. Ahhh, I don't know where I'm going with this.

Good thread.

Why can't you measure them side by side when away from their home park?   It's a great way to see if a home park is favoring one or the other.

I think Kershaw will win too but you can't use total K's to support your argument.  There isn't a pitcher or manager in the world that would trade 28 extra K's for the K/BB ratio that Halladay put up.   

6.29 K/BB for Halladay compared with 4.59 K/BB for Kershaw puts the overall striekout argument to bed. 

I am not using total K's to support my argument. There isn't a pitcher or manger in the world that doesn't like more wins and a lower ERA.

Please. Let me be the first one to tell you this........

You do not win the Cy Young based on walk to strikeout ratio, okay?

Are we done with this?

I realise that having 248 strikeouts vs. 54 walks, REALLY SUCKS.

But, he's only 22. Maybe he can get better.

Actually, they do take sabermetrics into consideration. Not everything, but it is known that they use the 4 I've listed, which are WAR (most important), xFIP, FIP, and BABIP. Especially in a situation like this where ERA, Wins, and IP are basically the same. I'm working on my comparison right now. I believe this chart will completely make my point.

Kershaw has pitched in pitcher friendly parks all year. He pitches in one at home where his era is 1.3. He also pitched quite a few games in San Diego and San Fran, both big time pitcher friendly parks, and his era was 2.9 on the road. I know to the public it seems Kershaw will win, but I'm willing to make a bet tht Halladay will win this award. Remember, we don't decide who wins, AP does and they DO take certain sabermetrics into account, especially when the major stats are basically the exact same.

I'm compiling more stats that would point towards Halladay winning the Cy Young and stats that point towards inflation of Kershaws numbers according to parks he pitched in and teams he faced.

Kershaw was quite lucky to have a combined 9 starts between the 2 worst hitting teams in the league San Fran and San Diego. 3 of the games against SF were at AT&T park, rated the most pitcher friendly park in the majors (30), which he compiled a 0.00 era. He had 2 starts against SD at PETCO Park rated the 3rd most pitcher friendly park in the majors (28), where he compiled a 2.20 era.

San Fran: 6 starts, 5 wins, 1.07 era, .150 opp BA.

San Diego: 3 starts, 3 wins, 1.78 era, .182 opp BA.

Lets his stats at home in another pitcher friendly park Dodger Stadium.

Home: 16 starts, 12 wins, 1.69 era, .191 opp BA.

Kershaw had 5 starts in hitter friendly parks, 2 at Coors Field (Colorado), 2 at Chase Field (Arizona), and one at Great America Ball Park (Cincinnati). Lets see how he fared.

Coors Field: 2 starts, 0 wins, 6.75 era, .283 opp BA.

Chase Field: 2 starts, 1 win, 2.70 era, .204 opp BA.

Cincinnati: 1 start, 0 wins, 8.10 era, .261 opp BA.

Take a look at the differnence between wins, era, and opponent batting average between his starts in pitcher friendly parks and hitter friendly parks. It is obvious that if Kershaw were to pitch at least half his starts in hitter friendly parks that his stats would be no where close to where they are now.

I'll do Halladay next.

If you read my latest post you would realize. Sure his stats are identical to Verlander, but Kershaw gets to face minor league hitting teams. He gets to pitch in all the pitcher friendly parks. His 5 starts in hitter friendly parks he got beat up. His numbers are inflated due to facing poor hitting teams in hitter friendly parks.

Lets take a look at Halladay now.

He pitches at Home in a hitter friendly park. Lets take a look at these stats.

Home: 15 starts, 8 wins, 2.48 era, .234 opp BA.

Those are great stats. Even though they are at home, it is a hitter friendly ball park.

Lets look at other starts in hitter friendly parks. He had 4 other starts in hitter friendly parks Rogers Centre (Toronto), Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati), Coors Field (Colorado), and Minute Maid Park (Houston).

Toronto: 1 start, 1 win, 3.00 era, .242 opp BA.

Cincinnati: 1 starts, 1 win, 0.00 era, .087 opp BA.

Colorado: 1 start, 1 win, 5.14 era, .333 opp BA.

Hoston: 1 start, 1 win, 0.00 era, .188 opp BA.

Halldays 4 road starts in hitter friendly parks were great. He won all 4 starts, while throwing a complete game shutout.

Lets take a look at his starts in pitcher friendly ball parks. He had 5 starts in pitcher friendly parks, Dodger Stadium (LAD), Citi Field (NYM), Wrigley Field (CHC), Busch Stadium (St.L), and PETCO Park (SD).

LA Dodgers: 1 start, 1 win, 1.42 era, .346 opp BA.

NY Mets: 1 start, 1 win, 0.00 era, .190 opp BA.

Cubs: 1 start, 0 wins, 6.75 era, .412 opp BA. ( his start when he suffered heat stroke and got pulled after 4)

St. Louis: 1 start, 0 wins, 1.50 era, .190 opp BA.

San Diego: 1 start, 1 win, 1.04 era, .161 opp BA.

Not including the 1 start that he suffered heat stroke and had to be pulled after 4 innings he absolutely dominated everyone and every team. Clearly if Halladay was pitching in a pitcher friendly park his numbers would be even lower than they are which is pretty hard to believe.