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Why Do So Many People Say Playing A Lot of Favorites Are Bad?

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Posted: #26
today there were 15 games and 3 of those games came in as underdogs! From my experience over a lifetime of gaming, if you have a 15 game day, there will be 3 to 6 dogs and avg is 5, especially the month before and after all star, its like a mine field because there are usually 2 upsets that you did not see coming and wacks you on the head like baseball bat, 9 games tomorrow, how many dogs? figure out the dogs, everything else is easy! I also find for myself and what I see other cappers do? We over think plays, I keep telling myself dont overthink.
 
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Posted: #27
Very good points Big Dave
 
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Posted: #28
CWS I think is a great value dog today
 
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Posted: #29
bigdave, your sample size is still fairly small.  You're profitable over 2 weeks and it may be profitable in the long run if you're very selective, but 2 weeks is nothing more than a hot streak, imo.  Imagine playing for 24 weeks.  16-18 good weeks could be killed by 6-8 bad weeks laying -140 juice.  

And this is just MLB we're talking here. 
 
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Posted: #30
Great thread! We all have our own styles & opinions and we can share them without offending others. I get bigdaves logic. I have the same mindset. I'd Much rather go 80% on -190 Favorites with a + 5units week than 45% on +200 for +5units.
A high juice doesn't mean Shiet unless they deserve to lay that kind of juice. Matchups win not the price on your team. That being said I'm stacking my chips on the Doyers this morning. Let's get this Cash Fellas.
 
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Posted: #31
Dodgers up 6-0, Tigers and Verlanders struggling in a 6-6 game


That's why being selective is the most important aspect of winning
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by WeMoveLines:

Def agree about bankroll management but don't believe anyone has made money long term betting favs straight up and 'riding' hot teams. Hot teams lose every team loses its just when. -250 teams lose. Those hits are tough to counter and overcome. You sound like a smart guy and informed bettor I won't judge but until someone proves it I ain't buying. Still think parlaying 2's and you still have to be sharp to hit is the way to go. And there are def trap lines out there and lines that make you think twice. SF tomorrow. Why are they favored -135 when Locke has better record and ERA and SF just got pounded. Thats a trap line IMO. Anyway BOL to you.



Man you speak like a real gambler.  That Big Dave dude is a clown.  It's funny how these newbies always come in here talking like they are winning so much money.  But eventually these guys disappear.  Big Dave what you playing with Monopoly Money?  Betting all those heavy favs will get you in the poor house.

I can tell the real dudes from the fakes and the vets from the rookies.  Keep betting those faves no way in hell your gonna make a big profit like that.  Not happening...

Yeah riding hot teams is a good strategy, but like someone said those teams eventually lose.  And when books see a team is hot they adjust accordingly.  And that juice will be raised.
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by ATLGettinPaper:



Man you speak like a real gambler.  That Big Dave dude is a clown.  It's funny how these newbies always come in here talking like they are winning so much money.  But eventually these guys disappear.  Big Dave what you playing with Monopoly Money?  Betting all those heavy favs will get you in the poor house.

I can tell the real dudes from the fakes and the vets from the rookies.  Keep betting those faves no way in hell your gonna make a big profit like that.  Not happening...

Yeah riding hot teams is a good strategy, but like someone said those teams eventually lose.  And when books see a team is hot they adjust accordingly.  And that juice will be raised.


Few things here. I'm winning with real money - I am at $4700 now with the dodgers winning today. I can post a picture if you really want me to


Second thing - it's not about blindly following hot teams. It's about knowing when teams are about to get hot and riding them when they are in the middle and not at the end of the hot streak. This is all based on matchups


Third thing - I'm mainly a recreational gambler who bets with bigger amounts. I have a job where I make very good money so I've never been able to really dedicate myself to sports gambling. I've mainly just won money in spots here and there when I had time to bet. RIght now I'm on vacation from work 

 
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Posted: #34
the chalk will kill you sooner or later I never pay more then -110 juice 99.99 percent of the time. -115 or -120 is as high as I will go. and I hate paying that kind of juice i'm a football guy thats why I hate paying more then -110 juice gl
Dilaudid8
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by dilaudid8:

the chalk will kill you sooner or later I never pay more then -110 juice 99.99 percent of the time. -115 or -120 is as high as I will go. and I hate paying that kind of juice i'm a football guy thats why I hate paying more then -110 juice gl

why is winning 58-60% on EV plays any different or any easier than hitting 68-70% on -150 pays?
 
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by Bigdave117:


why is winning 58-60% on EV plays any different or any easier than hitting 68-70% on -150 pays?

 

Didn't you answer the question with your own post#10? Some people are comfortable in finding "value" in dogs, just different style.

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