"Too many people get caught up in what a handicapper's winning percentage is in baseball and to me that just further explains to me that people do not understand betting baseball, as successful baseball handicapping is not a function of winning percentage. I would go so far as to say that if any average baseball handicapper had a gun to his head and was asked to hit 60% over the course of the season, he probably could. Simply, if a baseball bettor took every favorite of 200 or greater, he would probably hit 60%. The problem is even you played all favorites with the average bet being a favorite of -200, at 60%, over 100 plays at $100 each, you would lose $2000. At an average of -200, a handicapper would need to hit 67% to even show a negligible profit. Don't forget, the best team in baseball last season only hit at a 59.3% clip. "
I'd say 70% of posters on covers need to read and UNDERSTAND this.
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"Too many people get caught up in what a handicapper's winning percentage is in baseball and to me that just further explains to me that people do not understand betting baseball, as successful baseball handicapping is not a function of winning percentage. I would go so far as to say that if any average baseball handicapper had a gun to his head and was asked to hit 60% over the course of the season, he probably could. Simply, if a baseball bettor took every favorite of 200 or greater, he would probably hit 60%. The problem is even you played all favorites with the average bet being a favorite of -200, at 60%, over 100 plays at $100 each, you would lose $2000. At an average of -200, a handicapper would need to hit 67% to even show a negligible profit. Don't forget, the best team in baseball last season only hit at a 59.3% clip. "
I'd say 70% of posters on covers need to read and UNDERSTAND this.
The most important part of handicapping is understanding what kind of player you are. If you are going to be an everyday guy then by all means work the dogs and small favs. You have to if you want to survive. All the advice from GH is sound if thats for you. I'm different in that there is no reason for me to look for "value". I don't play everyday because it makes no sense to me to do so. The odds aren't in my favor to cash everyday just like why would you bet all 9 or 10 races at the track? No way you are hitting them all.
From my prospective laying -135 the other day for Beckett and the Sox was great "value" because a lot of the time this line would be much much higher with this pitcher. I look for lack of a better term "mismatches" and bet big not often. Verlander vs KC a couple weeks ago was in the -130's but it was a mismatch from my POV. I dont bet everyday but i cap everyday and what i found helpful was to write down my thoughts for each game and go from there. The guys have a great "thinking outloud" thread in the penalty box daily and if you look at what Lineguesser does that's what I mean by writing down your thoughts. My other advice is to focus in on a particular team, I know Papi knows the Sox, 3825 is the M's guy and I have a pretty good handle on the Dbacks. I live in the market so i listen or see them a lot so you get to one their day to day doings and tendencies. They can't hit or have little plate discipline (getting a little better sinch Hinch but baby steps) so I love to fade them against dealers(guys that don't throw the hardest but have nasty stuff) Cueto, Jurrjens, Big Z. Thats the kind of match-up I look for.
I do all the normal things when looking at a game but I never bet a game until I see a line-up. To me that's important to others it's getting an early line. My one almost golden rule is to try and not bet on teams when they give their regular catcher that day off. Clearly, pitchers work primarily with one guy the majority of the year so in my eyes why have to add another variable you aren't sure of to an already unpredictable game. One last thing, do all your homework and by all means use Covers for the info they provide but don't let the threads direct your betting. Once you get in the habit of "seeing what everyone is saying" you'll get lazy and your money is too valuable to let people you dont know tell you what to do.
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The most important part of handicapping is understanding what kind of player you are. If you are going to be an everyday guy then by all means work the dogs and small favs. You have to if you want to survive. All the advice from GH is sound if thats for you. I'm different in that there is no reason for me to look for "value". I don't play everyday because it makes no sense to me to do so. The odds aren't in my favor to cash everyday just like why would you bet all 9 or 10 races at the track? No way you are hitting them all.
From my prospective laying -135 the other day for Beckett and the Sox was great "value" because a lot of the time this line would be much much higher with this pitcher. I look for lack of a better term "mismatches" and bet big not often. Verlander vs KC a couple weeks ago was in the -130's but it was a mismatch from my POV. I dont bet everyday but i cap everyday and what i found helpful was to write down my thoughts for each game and go from there. The guys have a great "thinking outloud" thread in the penalty box daily and if you look at what Lineguesser does that's what I mean by writing down your thoughts. My other advice is to focus in on a particular team, I know Papi knows the Sox, 3825 is the M's guy and I have a pretty good handle on the Dbacks. I live in the market so i listen or see them a lot so you get to one their day to day doings and tendencies. They can't hit or have little plate discipline (getting a little better sinch Hinch but baby steps) so I love to fade them against dealers(guys that don't throw the hardest but have nasty stuff) Cueto, Jurrjens, Big Z. Thats the kind of match-up I look for.
I do all the normal things when looking at a game but I never bet a game until I see a line-up. To me that's important to others it's getting an early line. My one almost golden rule is to try and not bet on teams when they give their regular catcher that day off. Clearly, pitchers work primarily with one guy the majority of the year so in my eyes why have to add another variable you aren't sure of to an already unpredictable game. One last thing, do all your homework and by all means use Covers for the info they provide but don't let the threads direct your betting. Once you get in the habit of "seeing what everyone is saying" you'll get lazy and your money is too valuable to let people you dont know tell you what to do.
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