yeah, if u are truly a novice, here are a few, especially if you don't follow the game closely as a fan (although following as a fan and following as a capper are different as u will soon see):
-start out with simple totals instead of trying to time dogs or laying big juice on teams you think "should" win on paper. a couple of -200 duds and u will come to hate betting bases very quickly.
-cap the entire card, offering your best totals guess on each game, even if you don't like the game. when you find a matchup u like, drill down. is it a park that produces more or less offense or does it play 'neutral?' what's the 'current form' of the starters (how good or bad have they been pitching recently)? how are the teams hitting? who's hot (a team's stud/studs or are the hits coming from role players)? how is the team defense? how have they historically handled the opposing SP? typically, how do they play there v. that opponent? what ump is behind the plate? what day is it? is it a getaway day? middle of a homestand? early start or nite game? any weather-related issues incl cold, wind, heat, dome, etc? how are the bullpens doing? we always picture backing our stud to a complete game win or under or whatever but the fact of the matter is that is highly unlikely... bullpens have a huge affect on the outcome of any given game and if your 'under' has 2 bad bullpens looming or 2 bad defenses squaring off, then that might not be the best investment.
-avoid exotics (1st 5, runlines, team totals, score/no score 1st inn, etc). they may look tempting but if you're a newbie, they're not for you, at least not yet.
-don't try to time the end of streaks. baseball is a season of runs. if the team has gone over its' last 5, don't bet on things "evening out" in the 6th game, even if the line's weighted v. the trend.
-after you do this for awhile and get a feel for it, print out the card without the totals and start guesstimating what they are/should be. when you can nail these numbers with regularity, you can begin to uncover soft lines. even a half run is an advantage if you become good at this. u can also begin to see who, potentially, is going to do the scoring in any given contest. from that u can extrapolate and move on to sides and team totals.
-don't fall in love with line movement. i know a lot of broke azzholes who sit around and watch lines all day and then proceed to lose their shirts. some of my biggest plays become so when the line actually backs up on me. juice isn't going to scare off a whale if he's convinced he's on the right side but backing the line up will dissuade the trolls if they think there's $ pouring in on the other side.
-just because there's a game on doesn't mean u have to wager on it. imo, at least 2/3 of the games every nite are unplayable. doesn't mean u can't win if u capped and played every game, just means the lines are spot-on and you're flipping coins more often than not. and since vegas' bank is bigger than yours, that's a losing prop in the long term.
-don't buy the hype or listen to the dopes. bases betting is the MOST difficult of all the major sports to win at. there are so many factors potentially at play any given nite that it is VERY difficult to win consistently so u have to be judicious with your units. i make my boat $ (upgrade my boat every year) on college foots and college hoops; i make my beer $ on bases.
that's it for now. don't play more than u can afford to lose because, yes, there are lumps ahead. gl.
Hot Forum Topics
