Only 3 teams expected W/L record is above .500, the CWS is 38-38
Only 3 teams have a run differential that's in the positive
Only 2 teams have a winning record vs teams that are above .500, the Tigers are 18-18
The NL Central(alone), has more teams with a positive run differential than the entire AL.
At Draft Kings, I'm seeing the NL to win the WS at -150. That's a telling # at almost the midway point of the season.
So what's the deal in the AL? Anyone have any theories or ideas? How long ago did the NL incorporate the DH? Has the NL taken from that pool of specialty hitters...
Is the Pitching in the NL just that much better?
For example, look at Alex Bregman. Dude spent his whole career in the AL where he was a respected and dangerous hitter. Comes to the NL and stinks up the joint.
All opinions welcome
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Seriously, what's going on, and why?
There are 15 teams in the AL
Only 5 teams are above .500
Only 3 teams expected W/L record is above .500, the CWS is 38-38
Only 3 teams have a run differential that's in the positive
Only 2 teams have a winning record vs teams that are above .500, the Tigers are 18-18
The NL Central(alone), has more teams with a positive run differential than the entire AL.
At Draft Kings, I'm seeing the NL to win the WS at -150. That's a telling # at almost the midway point of the season.
So what's the deal in the AL? Anyone have any theories or ideas? How long ago did the NL incorporate the DH? Has the NL taken from that pool of specialty hitters...
Is the Pitching in the NL just that much better?
For example, look at Alex Bregman. Dude spent his whole career in the AL where he was a respected and dangerous hitter. Comes to the NL and stinks up the joint.
In short, there is so many variables that it would require a conversation while having a beer. Let’s see what the records are in August and I’d probably say you are definitely on to something.
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@undermysac
In short, there is so many variables that it would require a conversation while having a beer. Let’s see what the records are in August and I’d probably say you are definitely on to something.
@undermysac In short, there is so many variables that it would require a conversation while having a beer. Let’s see what the records are in August and I’d probably say you are definitely on to something.
It is kooky but my belief is its just the way the mop has flopped so far. Orioles take 2 ( should have swept) Dodgers in LA, which just goes to show that the numbers could end up evening out more before seasons end.
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Quote Originally Posted by BigRomes916:
@undermysac In short, there is so many variables that it would require a conversation while having a beer. Let’s see what the records are in August and I’d probably say you are definitely on to something.
It is kooky but my belief is its just the way the mop has flopped so far. Orioles take 2 ( should have swept) Dodgers in LA, which just goes to show that the numbers could end up evening out more before seasons end.
W/L only tells so much. Sometimes teams in certain leagues and divisions beat each other. Sometimes they all lose to the good teams and beat the bad teams then other times there will be a mixture of variance losing to bad teams and beating good ones.
But if you look at most power ratings and ELO-style ratings so far this season you will not see too much separation.
For example, 5 of the top 10 are from each league. 6 of the next 10 are NL and 4 are AL. 5 of the bottom 10 are from each league.
Etc., etc.
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W/L only tells so much. Sometimes teams in certain leagues and divisions beat each other. Sometimes they all lose to the good teams and beat the bad teams then other times there will be a mixture of variance losing to bad teams and beating good ones.
But if you look at most power ratings and ELO-style ratings so far this season you will not see too much separation.
For example, 5 of the top 10 are from each league. 6 of the next 10 are NL and 4 are AL. 5 of the bottom 10 are from each league.
It’s the year of horrible starting pitching and bullpens. And this stupid start bullpen and bring in starter nonsense is crap
It could be pitching, I asked that earlier. Do you mean bad pitching league wide, or just in the AL? I believe teams in both leagues use openers, some more than others like Tampa Bay.
I looked up the top 30 pitchers in the league by FIP(field independent pitching). Not the greatest metric in the world but more accurate than era.
Of the top 30 pitchers(all 2.75 and under), 17 of them are in the NL, 13 in the AL.
31 through 60(2.75 to 3.24), 12 from the NL, 18 from the AL.
61 through 90(3.26 to 3.51), 15/15 split.
91 through 120(3.51 to 3.84), 12 from the NL, 18 from the AL.
121 through 150(3.84 to 4.13), 10 in the NL, 20 in the AL.
In Summary, from the top 150 pitchers in the MLB, 66 are from the NL, and 84 are from the AL. This is starters and relief combined.
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Quote Originally Posted by wantwinners:
It’s the year of horrible starting pitching and bullpens. And this stupid start bullpen and bring in starter nonsense is crap
It could be pitching, I asked that earlier. Do you mean bad pitching league wide, or just in the AL? I believe teams in both leagues use openers, some more than others like Tampa Bay.
I looked up the top 30 pitchers in the league by FIP(field independent pitching). Not the greatest metric in the world but more accurate than era.
Of the top 30 pitchers(all 2.75 and under), 17 of them are in the NL, 13 in the AL.
31 through 60(2.75 to 3.24), 12 from the NL, 18 from the AL.
61 through 90(3.26 to 3.51), 15/15 split.
91 through 120(3.51 to 3.84), 12 from the NL, 18 from the AL.
121 through 150(3.84 to 4.13), 10 in the NL, 20 in the AL.
In Summary, from the top 150 pitchers in the MLB, 66 are from the NL, and 84 are from the AL. This is starters and relief combined.
Yes. I am just saying at this point it is standard variance.
The power ratings reflect the strength of the teams. They may just barely be beating bad and decent teams and could be losing a couple of lopsided games to better teams.
The ratings clean up some of that 'noise' and show the 'true' team strength.
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@undermysac
Yes. I am just saying at this point it is standard variance.
The power ratings reflect the strength of the teams. They may just barely be beating bad and decent teams and could be losing a couple of lopsided games to better teams.
The ratings clean up some of that 'noise' and show the 'true' team strength.
@undermysac Yes. I am just saying at this point it is standard variance. The power ratings reflect the strength of the teams. They may just barely be beating bad and decent teams and could be losing a couple of lopsided games to better teams. The ratings clean up some of that 'noise' and show the 'true' team strength.
To get right to the point then, is there any value on betting an AL team future right now?
I never have really in the mlb since it's such a long season with so many games to be played.
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Quote Originally Posted by Raiders22:
@undermysac Yes. I am just saying at this point it is standard variance. The power ratings reflect the strength of the teams. They may just barely be beating bad and decent teams and could be losing a couple of lopsided games to better teams. The ratings clean up some of that 'noise' and show the 'true' team strength.
To get right to the point then, is there any value on betting an AL team future right now?
I never have really in the mlb since it's such a long season with so many games to be played.
@undermysac I've been saying all year that the NL Central is the best division in mlb but look at the NL East all of a sudden they are about even right now.
Dude I don't know how the Cardinals are doing it in that division, but they are. With the lowest of payrolls.
I still feel that the Pirates can climb as well.
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Quote Originally Posted by chicubs09:
@undermysac I've been saying all year that the NL Central is the best division in mlb but look at the NL East all of a sudden they are about even right now.
Dude I don't know how the Cardinals are doing it in that division, but they are. With the lowest of payrolls.
Quote Originally Posted by Raiders22: @undermysac Yes. I am just saying at this point it is standard variance. The power ratings reflect the strength of the teams. They may just barely be beating bad and decent teams and could be losing a couple of lopsided games to better teams. The ratings clean up some of that 'noise' and show the 'true' team strength. To get right to the point then, is there any value on betting an AL team future right now? I never have really in the mlb since it's such a long season with so many games to be played.
The problem -- or issue -- is there might be several more 'elite' teams in NL right now and just a few 'elite' ones in AL.
So, you would be taking a chance if there are only 2-3 AL teams that could win it, but there may be 2-3 elite teams in NL that could win it but might have 5-6 slightly weaker ones that could win it.
For example, NYY is just different w/o Judge. But can TB, TOR, SEA, BLT, CHW, BOS win out in a series against LAD, or even PHL, ATL, MIL, or MIA if they stay hot.
So, there may be value if you look at the current odds and see one or more of those teams in the second-tier that might get hot in the 2nd half. Maybe they are in the running and make a trade or two to get a pitcher they can use, etc.
Even, DET and HOU would have good value -- assuming they stay hot and make a trade or two.
But you may be right in making a play at this point before things start to clear up later in the season.
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Quote Originally Posted by Raiders22: @undermysac Yes. I am just saying at this point it is standard variance. The power ratings reflect the strength of the teams. They may just barely be beating bad and decent teams and could be losing a couple of lopsided games to better teams. The ratings clean up some of that 'noise' and show the 'true' team strength. To get right to the point then, is there any value on betting an AL team future right now? I never have really in the mlb since it's such a long season with so many games to be played.
The problem -- or issue -- is there might be several more 'elite' teams in NL right now and just a few 'elite' ones in AL.
So, you would be taking a chance if there are only 2-3 AL teams that could win it, but there may be 2-3 elite teams in NL that could win it but might have 5-6 slightly weaker ones that could win it.
For example, NYY is just different w/o Judge. But can TB, TOR, SEA, BLT, CHW, BOS win out in a series against LAD, or even PHL, ATL, MIL, or MIA if they stay hot.
So, there may be value if you look at the current odds and see one or more of those teams in the second-tier that might get hot in the 2nd half. Maybe they are in the running and make a trade or two to get a pitcher they can use, etc.
Even, DET and HOU would have good value -- assuming they stay hot and make a trade or two.
But you may be right in making a play at this point before things start to clear up later in the season.
@undermysac top 10 teams favored to win ws are split between both leagues. shohei and dodgers carrying the weight for nl to win ws -150?
According to Betonline:
1. Dodgers +200
2. Yankees +500
3. Braves +900
4. Mariners +900
5. Brewers +1200
6. Phillies +1600
7. Rays +2200
8. Jays +2500
9. Guardians +2800
10. Rangers +2800
4 NL teams, 6 AL teams.
Quick thoughts here, I wouldn't feel good about placing a bet on the Yankees here. Despite the 3rd best run differential in the league, they are 11-12 vs teams above .500, and have played the least amount of games vs such teams by a mile.
Would anyone feel good about a Mariners bet? 22-19 at home, 18-20 away, 15-16 vs teams>.500
Brewers at +1200, I'm looking at you.
46-29, but expected W/L is 49-26. 21-14 otr, they travel. 30-17 vs teams>.500(best in mlb).
The Phillies at +1600 could be a slight dark horse. They are tough to beat when they're firing on all cylinders. When you have a Wheeler and Sanchez 1,2 punch, that'll carry a series. Luzardo has been pitching better than his era says as well.
Even Tampa at +2200 always a dark horse. Their load management analytics usually get em going on incredible hot streaks, very randomly it seems. But I would never bet on Cashman ever since he pulled Blake Snell in the WS. That was baseball malpractice at it's worst.
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Quote Originally Posted by davidortiz:
@undermysac top 10 teams favored to win ws are split between both leagues. shohei and dodgers carrying the weight for nl to win ws -150?
According to Betonline:
1. Dodgers +200
2. Yankees +500
3. Braves +900
4. Mariners +900
5. Brewers +1200
6. Phillies +1600
7. Rays +2200
8. Jays +2500
9. Guardians +2800
10. Rangers +2800
4 NL teams, 6 AL teams.
Quick thoughts here, I wouldn't feel good about placing a bet on the Yankees here. Despite the 3rd best run differential in the league, they are 11-12 vs teams above .500, and have played the least amount of games vs such teams by a mile.
Would anyone feel good about a Mariners bet? 22-19 at home, 18-20 away, 15-16 vs teams>.500
Brewers at +1200, I'm looking at you.
46-29, but expected W/L is 49-26. 21-14 otr, they travel. 30-17 vs teams>.500(best in mlb).
The Phillies at +1600 could be a slight dark horse. They are tough to beat when they're firing on all cylinders. When you have a Wheeler and Sanchez 1,2 punch, that'll carry a series. Luzardo has been pitching better than his era says as well.
Even Tampa at +2200 always a dark horse. Their load management analytics usually get em going on incredible hot streaks, very randomly it seems. But I would never bet on Cashman ever since he pulled Blake Snell in the WS. That was baseball malpractice at it's worst.
Quote Originally Posted by davidortiz: @undermysac top 10 teams favored to win ws are split between both leagues. shohei and dodgers carrying the weight for nl to win ws -150? According to Betonline: 1. Dodgers +200 2. Yankees +500 3. Braves +900 4. Mariners +900 5. Brewers +1200 6. Phillies +1600 7. Rays +2200 8. Jays +2500 9. Guardians +2800 10. Rangers +2800 4 NL teams, 6 AL teams. Quick thoughts here, I wouldn't feel good about placing a bet on the Yankees here. Despite the 3rd best run differential in the league, they are 11-12 vs teams above .500, and have played the least amount of games vs such teams by a mile. Would anyone feel good about a Mariners bet? 22-19 at home, 18-20 away, 15-16 vs teams>.500 Brewers at +1200, I'm looking at you. 46-29, but expected W/L is 49-26. 21-14 otr, they travel. 30-17 vs teams>.500(best in mlb). The Phillies at +1600 could be a slight dark horse. They are tough to beat when they're firing on all cylinders. When you have a Wheeler and Sanchez 1,2 punch, that'll carry a series. Luzardo has been pitching better than his era says as well. Even Tampa at +2200 always a dark horse. Their load management analytics usually get em going on incredible hot streaks, very randomly it seems. But I would never bet on Cashman ever since he pulled Blake Snell in the WS. That was baseball malpractice at it's worst.
I like the double chance Braves/Rays +650 .....The Braves have the all around squad to beat the Dodgers.....and the Rays can play with anybody in the AL (or NL if they make it to the WS)
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Quote Originally Posted by davidortiz: @undermysac top 10 teams favored to win ws are split between both leagues. shohei and dodgers carrying the weight for nl to win ws -150? According to Betonline: 1. Dodgers +200 2. Yankees +500 3. Braves +900 4. Mariners +900 5. Brewers +1200 6. Phillies +1600 7. Rays +2200 8. Jays +2500 9. Guardians +2800 10. Rangers +2800 4 NL teams, 6 AL teams. Quick thoughts here, I wouldn't feel good about placing a bet on the Yankees here. Despite the 3rd best run differential in the league, they are 11-12 vs teams above .500, and have played the least amount of games vs such teams by a mile. Would anyone feel good about a Mariners bet? 22-19 at home, 18-20 away, 15-16 vs teams>.500 Brewers at +1200, I'm looking at you. 46-29, but expected W/L is 49-26. 21-14 otr, they travel. 30-17 vs teams>.500(best in mlb). The Phillies at +1600 could be a slight dark horse. They are tough to beat when they're firing on all cylinders. When you have a Wheeler and Sanchez 1,2 punch, that'll carry a series. Luzardo has been pitching better than his era says as well. Even Tampa at +2200 always a dark horse. Their load management analytics usually get em going on incredible hot streaks, very randomly it seems. But I would never bet on Cashman ever since he pulled Blake Snell in the WS. That was baseball malpractice at it's worst.
I like the double chance Braves/Rays +650 .....The Braves have the all around squad to beat the Dodgers.....and the Rays can play with anybody in the AL (or NL if they make it to the WS)
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