Posted:
#76
11-0 Last night
0-2 Start today I am 
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Wed 7/27 MLB Picks
Posted:
#77
Quote Originally Posted by mrweed13:
That's about as nonsensical as they come.
If he did hit 70% of his plays, each ensuing play would have a 70% chance of hitting. If you flip a coin heads three times in a row, is the next flip any more likely to be a tail? No, it's not.
The market analogy might be more relevant as investor emotions are at play, but in gambling it doesn't work that way.
For everyone who tails target_9, I hope you are right. I am choosing to stay off today and wish him luck.
As far as the difference in using prior results to predict future outcomes, we will have to agree to disagree. I believe that a gambler is more likely to have a losing day after going 100%. I am sure many will agree with you. That is just the way I see it.
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Posted:
#79
Quote Originally Posted by mrweed13:
That's about as nonsensical as they come.
If he did hit 70% of his plays, each ensuing play would have a 70% chance of hitting. If you flip a coin heads three times in a row, is the next flip any more likely to be a tail? No, it's not.
The market analogy might be more relevant as investor emotions are at play, but in gambling it doesn't work that way.
This is exactly correct. The market used to be about fundamentals and the laws of supply and demand. Today the market revolves around speculation and the amount of money large (ie Goldman, Glencore) can put on their trades has a huge impact on the market.
If you walk up to Albert Pujols and tell him that you just laid 100k on the cardinals to win that is not going to effect the outcome of the baseball game. Capping and Investing are a like in the matters of research and analytics when it comes to deciding which positions your going to take in the market, but the outside factors are much different.
Juming on T9 for one day after he goes and expecting him to go 11-0 again is rediculous. He didn't create the record over night, he had winning days and losing days.
If your going to tail T9 stick with his plays win or lose, don't jump off day in and day out or you are going to lose. 70% could mean 100%, 0%,0%, 100% etc...
Just my 2 cents, but I will tail T9 as he does his research and has a proven track record over a long period of time.
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Posted:
#82
Quote Originally Posted by jjczar:
For everyone who tails target_9, I hope you are right. I am choosing to stay off today and wish him luck.
As far as the difference in using prior results to predict future outcomes, we will have to agree to disagree. I believe that a gambler is more likely to have a losing day after going 100%. I am sure many will agree with you. That is just the way I see it.
So did you decide to "stay off" before or after the first two games?
Nevermind. Your post time stamp answers that question. 
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