Value Discussion

@Ramanujan

 So you can beat the book?? Nothing else matters, Knock!

@knockonwood

 Just post and keep a record, only way you prove anything....Knock!

The value always rests with the winner.  What kind of statement is that?  You don't know the outcome until the game is played.  Value lies in probabilities. 

-300 juice is worth the squeeze if the favorite has an 80% chance of winning.  But it's not worth it if they have a 74% chance of winning.  Same with betting a +200 dog - if they don't have at least a 34% chance of winning, there's no value to be had.

Value assessment is completely subjective before the contest takes place.  One person might put the Angel's chances today at 70%.  Someone else might put their chances at 82%.  What were their actual chances?  No one really knows for certain.  But if I put their chances at 72%, there's no way I'm taking them at -300, because there's no value there.  On the flip side, if I put Oakland's chances at 28%, there's no way I take them either.  This is the spread the books rely on to make money - if they can find a way to charge too much juice for the favorite and at the same time, not offer enough payout for the dog, they are going to win either way.

@JEG53

"Why did you not tell the guy that your not really just a home fav player?"

You have known me since my first day here 14 years ago. What good did anything like that ever do? They never listen. On Covers one misconception can brand you for life. People here, hear what they want, not necessarily what was said. From bartending you should be a world class expert on that. 

@bluecompass

"Value assessment is completely subjective before the contest takes place."

Yes, and a carved-in-stone absolute fact after the event. The first is guesswork, the result is fact. The term "value" is out of place BEFORE the event.

@KeyElement

"The term "value" is out of place BEFORE the event."

Ok.  Then what term would you use to judge the probability of an outcome and then compare that probability to the odds offered?

Key I'm going over what you said again because I just respect someone taking time to help :) plus it's raining here and we were night fishing a while but not sitting in rain......It does say discussion and I may have thought it was pushing favs and I'm just against favs so threw my 2 cents in......You're trying to help improve beating the book so Thank you :)   above my grade level so I'm just going to watch :) Never give up on finding ways, just share :) Knock!

@bluecompass

 Blue you use to have a sports service?? Name is familiar but been yrs.......Knock!

@KeyElement

@bluecompass

 "Implied value" might be a nice term, I could live with that I suppose.

Think of two different cars out of the same factory on the same day. Both are 30K, an implied value. Car 1. goes 200K miles in ten years without a lick of trouble.

Car 2. goes 100K miles in ten years and is in the shop 20% of the time with $8K in non-warranted repairs.

Which had true value and which had implied value? Car 1 had true value and is the winner in ANY comparison.

@KeyElement

 I'll be honest.

I didn't read the entire thread.  Just the OPs first post.

And I strongly disagree with his statement that "The value is always with the FAVORITE".

For any new gambler, this is their primary fallacy.  They believe this very concept.  In baseball, this is strictly not the case.

Comparing the ROI to a stock and saying something to the effect of "Where can you make 31.8% in the stock market?" is totally apples and oranges.  A non sequitur.

If you primarily play favorites, especially heavy favorites, you will go broke before the All Star break.

Try it one season.  You will find out.

I've been there, done that and burned that T shirt. 

If I can't convince you, the books will.

@AdVictoriam

 Dang, I thought he said., Value is always with the Winner

Falcon 

@MITM

 I stand corrected.

Since that is the case, the statement makes even less sense.

Carry on.

@AdVictoriam

 What I've been trying to say :) Knock!

@knockonwood

 Does it really matter you all are just guessing like the next guy ppl be on covers acting like they’re certain to give winning people post there wins after the games or post their picks when they have a good read on who might win based on whose the lead or what way they guessed O/U shits comical 

@Biggiefry

 Is English your first language, Sir?

If so, your English teacher was sorely lacking in ability.  Small things like punctuation and grammar seemed to be overlooked.

Let me see what I can do here to assist you.

"Does it really matter? You all are just guessing like the next guy.  People on covers act like they’re certain to give winners.  People post their wins after the games or post their picks when they have a good read on who might win based on who is in the lead or which way they guessed the O/U.  Shit's comical."

A very hot take now that I can read it.

Might I suggest you take a look at my daily thread?  I don't "guess" at O/Us and I always post my selections prior to the game starting.

Also, I will never guarantee you a winner.  But I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night and have a large golden horseshoe up my ass.

It helps me with focus.

Hoping that I didn't just fix your Ebonics.  Didn't want to ruffle any feathers.

@AdVictoriam

"If so, your English teacher was sorely lacking in ability."

Maybe he/she didn't have much to work with.

I suppose in this day and age I should make that he/she into "whatever creature."

More politically correct.

Been doing this for a long time, nothing works too many uncontrollable variables in a given game.

Not worth racking your brain trying to figure it out, bet small, expect to lose, if you win pick up your 'smelly hundo or two and go have dinner and drinks, in reality, that's all it's worth

man, I always thought Keyelement was one of the "great" ones here on the covers forum. but this post seemed to me of a new one that entered the bets yesterday. The main issue in this thread is not whether -314 has a chance to win or not, the issue is after 1000 bets placed at odds of -314 how much profit do you end up with? Several studies I've seen prove you'll finish without prejudice. Because even at odds as low as -314 nobody succeeds 72% of the time. And you I'll need that hit percentage to stay even in the long run.</

Most bettors are recreational,  over the long haul is not in their mindset..

Yes of course, betting is recreational. No one can think that betting is an investment or anything like that. AND
just gambling like cards and blackjack, it's just entertainment and addiction.

But the point here is: After 10 years of making recreational bets at -314, you end up at a loss, and no one
bets thinking of ending in loss, even if this is almost inevitable.