Value Discussion

No play today but let's discuss this "value" thing one more time. 

Currently my favorite local book has Ohtani -314 @ home

McClanahan -155 and Cole -165, both on the road. All three are high probability winners, so more than one guy will say

"All That Juice, My God! So much VALUE on the dogs!" 

A dog that loses has a -100% negative value, OK? The "VALUE" ALWAYS rests with the winner. 

So, the $100 player says "I ain't laying no damn $314 on anybody." Where is the problem. The problem is he won't lay 3X his normal risk to achieve his usual and desired $100 profit. In other words he is letting his desired profit determine his wager. So, he considers his usual $100 to be "well invested" on the "VALUE" dog at +249. Face it, it will be luckiest day of his life if he wins that wager. 

Now, if he gets his head on straight and lays his usual, affordable $100 on Ohtani he has and extremely high probability of making $31.80, which is 131.8% more profitable than the "VALUE" play on the dog that loses.  

A) Adding the juice to gain a desired profit is foolish and impossible. You cannot control profit, you can only control risk. 

B) Flat wagering a specific percentage of bankroll is the greatest protection against bankroll-bankruptcy you can get. Your dogs will still win their bonuses, but your favorites that lose will not eat so much bankroll. 

C) There is no mathematical justification whatsoever for "adding the juice" to retain a desired profit level. Pro gamblers have always known it, but books love the concept. Whose financial well being are they out to protect? 

D) Wake up. Your stock portfolio or 401k are not likely to make 31.8% today. Ohtani is. Just don't risk another $214 to still be playing for 31.8% profit.    

The "VALUE" ALWAYS rests with the winner. 

@KeyElement

 Absolutely

Very very well said.

Falcon Sports 

Bucs were the value play of the week. Surprised you didn't have them.

Reason: The "VALUE" ALWAYS rests with the winner. Nice saying, interesting discussion.

@RebelTell2

 Gut feeling, yes, the Bucs were my favored side, but the math wasn't there. Projection on that game was MUCH closer. Unplayable. Sometimes a gut play that looks easy after the game could easily have gone the other way. That's why so many "locks" that go down get called "FIX".

Betting favs.....Your book loves you but good luck, Knock!

@knockonwood

 Nothing wrong with betting favorites, even big ones, but you have to have a high enough win probability and don't "add the juice".

win probability <--- does not mean gut feeling or someone's "lock". 

Boston Bruins were the only example of this I can think of where you could have made money.

Oh, and fading the A's! 

Although, the Angels bullpen might be worse than the A's. 

I like parlays with the favorites, and I've learned that my highest favored game always loses the card 80% of the time. I have been hovering around break even for many years and get extremely streaky. I often find I go 4-0 or 0-4

@mountaincaribou

"I've learned that my highest favored game always loses the card 80% of the time."

That ALONE makes a prima facie case for being a flat bettor. You can't control profit, you can only control risk.

Parlays are a subject for another day. 

@mountaincaribou

 You're on the right path but hard to explain....Even is great, most can't!  Wish the Best, Knock!

Agree, right favs to bet like right dogs, secret is when and who but just beiting favs, you better hit a very high percentage and most cant.....I'll watch any system and always pulling for you.....Anyone show me they can finish plus money I'll retire and follow so I'll pull for you :) I don't want to be negative in anyone's thread but I've never seen anyone betting just favs make money.....I'm a Dog player and down so may should shut up :) Knock!

@KeyElement

What does this even mean?  Your response makes no attempt to counter any of his points.

I’ll be more succinct: value is where you can spot a real non trivial difference in the likelihood of a particular outcome versus what the books are offering you. The odds in question are somewhat irrelevant. Favourite or dog it doesn’t matter

@knockonwood

It's a lot of stress. Especially when you can't get a pick right. You tell yourself you should be regressing to the mean. And you do, eventually, if you are using analysis strategies that have worked in the past. Often it's because your analysis is flawed and you have to just admit where your bias was.

Sometimes you give up.

Yikes. 

@Ramanujan

 Let me know when you're plus money betting your valued favs.......Very easy, post and keep a honest record.....Betting just Favs will never work, try it!!  I've  never seen anyone beat the book playing favs a whole season but good luck....l know what he's saying but betting favs don't work in baseball but feel free to prove it....let me know at the end of season because I follow no one.....My record will be posted so point out any fav player in the end.....Not arguing just pointing out what doesn't work.....I haven't seen anyone win in 49 yrs and I've watched many......I'm just saying only betting favs will never win, that's all.....I wish all the best, Knock!

@mountaincaribou

 Lol

What everyone needs to learn........You know nothing Vegas doesn't, Knock!

@knockonwood

If everyone was analytical the sportsbooks would be out of business. There's plenty of suckers around and there always will be. 

They've got me a few times with the Casino tab.

@knockonwood

 No need to get upset. He wasn't addressing strictly betting favorites. The mathematical reality is you can have a winning season with either all dogs or all favs, just a matter of who, what, when. If you bet -110 favorites only and hit 58% you had a winning season. Handicapping and money management have everything to do with it.

@KeyElement

 It's all good and I'm listening:) Rare are most betting 110 favs in baseball, average around 147 I think it is.....I cap different from everyone as I'm just a line reader....Why I always look if something interesting or a system......I'm just very strongly against favs in baseball especially but all sports....I'm always hoping some computer genius here can come up with something but I've never seen anyone come up with something Vegas isn't already ahead on....Why they're rich and the gambler's lose at over 98% in sports betting.....I'm always hoping for something that works but have yet to find.....I trust what I do but found nothing that works better in the long run....If I ever do ill follow but very few ever beat the book and I haven't found one posting who does consistently.....I may not understand what you're  saying but I'm pull8ng for whatever works.......  The only way I found to prove something is post and keep a record.....Someone post plays here that fit what you're saying so I can watch.... Someone post any plays tonight because I want to know if on same side as i.....Post every day here so I get a better understanding :) I'm older and need to see, Knock!

It's always a matter of who what and when so missing something I guess.....I've preached who what and when for yrs with when being the magic word and that depends on Vegas......Vegas determines who wins but most will never understand!!! Again, wish the best :) Knock!

@knockonwood

It is all about risk vs reward. I work in decimal odds, so this is my approach:

I cap the games to find my probabilities and then factor in my risk willingness (often based om how much value I find, but could be gutfeel)

WinProbability x Odds = Betvalue

Then I factor in my risk-willingness (I go a scale from 1-5, meaning 0,01 to 0,05 in the formula):

Betvalue x WinProbability/100 x Risk (0,01-0,05) = % of my bankroll to bet

If I had capped the Angels game (didn't do it, but) I might have come up with Angels winning 80% and A's 20%

At -314, that would be about odds 1,32, which I use to see if there is value (over 100 = value)

So Angels game would be: 80 x 1,32 = 105,6 (= I got value, had I capped Angels winning 75% I wouldn't have any value at that odds)

I am risk averse in this one (or I am one of the guys going "All That Juice, My God! So much VALUE on the dogs!"), so I'd factor with 1

105,6 x 0,80 x 0,01 = 0,84

So if my bankroll was 1000 dollars, I'd bet 8,4 dollar on this

@Shauwig

"It is all about risk vs reward"

You are a late comer. I have been explaining that since 2008. 14 years, 3 or 4 listeners. BOL

@KeyElement

 Since my move and retirement I have times where I revert back to my work sleep schedule which is a pain sometimes, so went on covers to see what was new.

Why did you not tell the guy that your not really just a home fav player?

You had a nice line on Wash. at 5 inning play.

GL this year.

why write so much in response to something I never even claimed. Just read my post properly 

The only way to win long term is to spot an edge between the real versus published odds. Whether it is dogs or favourites in each case makes NO difference