I don't post much and I also don't bet a ton of MLB games..I do pick my spots though. I look for odd totals and spreads where the oddsmakers are SCREAMING something at you. Like when you see a day Cubs game with a total of 13.5. Anyways...
Kershaw opens at basically even money today? Dodgers on a mini win streak and Arizona losing streak? Kershaw reignin cy young winner against Collmenter whom has been horrible so far this year?
I mean...this is gambling and anything can happen but man are the bookies begging for Dodgers money tonight.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I don't post much and I also don't bet a ton of MLB games..I do pick my spots though. I look for odd totals and spreads where the oddsmakers are SCREAMING something at you. Like when you see a day Cubs game with a total of 13.5. Anyways...
Kershaw opens at basically even money today? Dodgers on a mini win streak and Arizona losing streak? Kershaw reignin cy young winner against Collmenter whom has been horrible so far this year?
I mean...this is gambling and anything can happen but man are the bookies begging for Dodgers money tonight.
I don't post much and I also don't bet a ton of MLB games..I do pick my spots though. I look for odd totals and spreads where the oddsmakers are SCREAMING something at you. Like when you see a day Cubs game with a total of 13.5. Anyways...
Kershaw opens at basically even money today? Dodgers on a mini win streak and Arizona losing streak? Kershaw reignin cy young winner against Collmenter whom has been horrible so far this year?
I mean...this is gambling and anything can happen but man are the bookies begging for Dodgers money tonight.
Have you also thought that vegas might want people to take ARI? At home, needing a win after losing 7 straight, better hitting lineup.... There will be a lot of people who jump on ARI i think. Go with your in-stinks man and dont second guess yourself.
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Quote Originally Posted by robertgould79:
I don't post much and I also don't bet a ton of MLB games..I do pick my spots though. I look for odd totals and spreads where the oddsmakers are SCREAMING something at you. Like when you see a day Cubs game with a total of 13.5. Anyways...
Kershaw opens at basically even money today? Dodgers on a mini win streak and Arizona losing streak? Kershaw reignin cy young winner against Collmenter whom has been horrible so far this year?
I mean...this is gambling and anything can happen but man are the bookies begging for Dodgers money tonight.
Have you also thought that vegas might want people to take ARI? At home, needing a win after losing 7 straight, better hitting lineup.... There will be a lot of people who jump on ARI i think. Go with your in-stinks man and dont second guess yourself.
Arizona is the third best offense against left-handed starters this season. By contrast, the Dodgers rank 20th against righties on the season (and without Kemp and Ethier their production drops even further). Throw in home field advantage and it's easy to see how the Diamondbacks can be favored. My model has Arizona -128.
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Arizona is the third best offense against left-handed starters this season. By contrast, the Dodgers rank 20th against righties on the season (and without Kemp and Ethier their production drops even further). Throw in home field advantage and it's easy to see how the Diamondbacks can be favored. My model has Arizona -128.
Arizona is the third best offense against left-handed starters this season. By contrast, the Dodgers rank 20th against righties on the season (and without Kemp and Ethier their production drops even further). Throw in home field advantage and it's easy to see how the Diamondbacks can be favored. My model has Arizona -128.
Kershaw is not a normal every day lefty. He is a CY young winner. ARI jacked the living shit out of Randy Wolf (I was at that game and it was painful for a brewer fan) which shot up all their stats big time. Kershaw has done VERY well vs ARI in his career and ARI cant win a game right now.
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Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:
Arizona is the third best offense against left-handed starters this season. By contrast, the Dodgers rank 20th against righties on the season (and without Kemp and Ethier their production drops even further). Throw in home field advantage and it's easy to see how the Diamondbacks can be favored. My model has Arizona -128.
Kershaw is not a normal every day lefty. He is a CY young winner. ARI jacked the living shit out of Randy Wolf (I was at that game and it was painful for a brewer fan) which shot up all their stats big time. Kershaw has done VERY well vs ARI in his career and ARI cant win a game right now.
Its all about value to me. Dodgers on a surge w/ support from Kershaw against a slumping ARI team. Not really much to say about Collmenter, whose also underachieved against LA. Baby road favs is a good price. The line is pretty stiff too.
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Its all about value to me. Dodgers on a surge w/ support from Kershaw against a slumping ARI team. Not really much to say about Collmenter, whose also underachieved against LA. Baby road favs is a good price. The line is pretty stiff too.
When I see a line like this I don't even waste my time looking into things. There is no edge I will find that the oddsmakers haven't figured into it already. My point...I agree it's pickem game because of the lineup dodgers are throwing out there but it's still amazing to see Kershaw at this price. You know how many dopes will just bet dodgers with their ace on the mound?
Arizona wins 4-2.
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When I see a line like this I don't even waste my time looking into things. There is no edge I will find that the oddsmakers haven't figured into it already. My point...I agree it's pickem game because of the lineup dodgers are throwing out there but it's still amazing to see Kershaw at this price. You know how many dopes will just bet dodgers with their ace on the mound?
Like I said above originally...this is gambling and anything can happen. But in this situation when you see an ace on the road with a very very small enticing line its usually a loser.
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Like I said above originally...this is gambling and anything can happen. But in this situation when you see an ace on the road with a very very small enticing line its usually a loser.
When I see a line like this I don't even waste my time looking into things. There is no edge I will find that the oddsmakers haven't figured into it already. My point...I agree it's pickem game because of the lineup dodgers are throwing out there but it's still amazing to see Kershaw at this price. You know how many dopes will just bet dodgers with their ace on the mound?
Arizona wins 4-2.
take the under then
Go Green
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Quote Originally Posted by robertgould79:
When I see a line like this I don't even waste my time looking into things. There is no edge I will find that the oddsmakers haven't figured into it already. My point...I agree it's pickem game because of the lineup dodgers are throwing out there but it's still amazing to see Kershaw at this price. You know how many dopes will just bet dodgers with their ace on the mound?
When I see a line like this I don't even waste my time looking into things. There is no edge I will find that the oddsmakers haven't figured into it already. My point...I agree it's pickem game because of the lineup dodgers are throwing out there but it's still amazing to see Kershaw at this price. You know how many dopes will just bet dodgers with their ace on the mound?
Arizona wins 4-2.
I think alot of DOPES will be going against the team who has now lost 7 games in a row... seems those people are smart to me!
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Quote Originally Posted by robertgould79:
When I see a line like this I don't even waste my time looking into things. There is no edge I will find that the oddsmakers haven't figured into it already. My point...I agree it's pickem game because of the lineup dodgers are throwing out there but it's still amazing to see Kershaw at this price. You know how many dopes will just bet dodgers with their ace on the mound?
Arizona wins 4-2.
I think alot of DOPES will be going against the team who has now lost 7 games in a row... seems those people are smart to me!
Arizona is the third best offense against left-handed starters this season. By contrast, the Dodgers rank 20th against righties on the season (and without Kemp and Ethier their production drops even further). Throw in home field advantage and it's easy to see how the Diamondbacks can be favored. My model has Arizona -128.
IMHO your model is way off especially when you consider that in eight starts against Arizona since 2010, Kershaw is 7-1 with a 1.23 ERA.
He hasn't allowed a run in half of those starts - including May 14, when the left-hander yielded four hits and three walks over seven innings of a 3-1 win. So in my view the line is right with Kershaw as the fav.
Kershaw owns the snakes but I must point out that it is no guarantee that Kershaw will have a gem against the snakes tonite, especially when that team is desperate for a win after 7 straight losses but it appears to look like he will because of the horrible slump the snakes are in right now.
I can see the snakes finally winning 2morrow when Billingsley takes the hill for the doyers but not tonite.
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Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:
Arizona is the third best offense against left-handed starters this season. By contrast, the Dodgers rank 20th against righties on the season (and without Kemp and Ethier their production drops even further). Throw in home field advantage and it's easy to see how the Diamondbacks can be favored. My model has Arizona -128.
IMHO your model is way off especially when you consider that in eight starts against Arizona since 2010, Kershaw is 7-1 with a 1.23 ERA.
He hasn't allowed a run in half of those starts - including May 14, when the left-hander yielded four hits and three walks over seven innings of a 3-1 win. So in my view the line is right with Kershaw as the fav.
Kershaw owns the snakes but I must point out that it is no guarantee that Kershaw will have a gem against the snakes tonite, especially when that team is desperate for a win after 7 straight losses but it appears to look like he will because of the horrible slump the snakes are in right now.
I can see the snakes finally winning 2morrow when Billingsley takes the hill for the doyers but not tonite.
IMHO your model is way off especially when you consider that in eight starts against Arizona since 2010, Kershaw is 7-1 with a 1.23 ERA.
He hasn't allowed a run in half of those starts - including May 14, when the left-hander yielded four hits and three walks over seven innings of a 3-1 win. So in my view the line is right with Kershaw as the fav.
Kershaw owns the snakes but I must point out that it is no guarantee that Kershaw will have a gem against the snakes tonite, especially when that team is desperate for a win after 7 straight losses but it appears to look like he will because of the horrible slump the snakes are in right now.
I can see the snakes finally winning 2morrow when Billingsley takes the hill for the doyers but not tonite.
well said
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Quote Originally Posted by SirJohnDrake:
IMHO your model is way off especially when you consider that in eight starts against Arizona since 2010, Kershaw is 7-1 with a 1.23 ERA.
He hasn't allowed a run in half of those starts - including May 14, when the left-hander yielded four hits and three walks over seven innings of a 3-1 win. So in my view the line is right with Kershaw as the fav.
Kershaw owns the snakes but I must point out that it is no guarantee that Kershaw will have a gem against the snakes tonite, especially when that team is desperate for a win after 7 straight losses but it appears to look like he will because of the horrible slump the snakes are in right now.
I can see the snakes finally winning 2morrow when Billingsley takes the hill for the doyers but not tonite.
You know how many dopes will just bet dodgers with their ace on the mound?
Arizona wins 4-2.
Do you blame them? Kershaw owns the snakes. And I wouldn't describe bettors who side with the doyers tonite as dopes. Especially the ones who have been fading the snakes for the past 7 games.
Those bettors need to continue fading the snakes until the streak ends. Do you recall I believe it was last year when the mariners lost something like 16 games in a row...you never really know when a streak will end, whether it be a winning or losing streak.
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Quote Originally Posted by robertgould79:
You know how many dopes will just bet dodgers with their ace on the mound?
Arizona wins 4-2.
Do you blame them? Kershaw owns the snakes. And I wouldn't describe bettors who side with the doyers tonite as dopes. Especially the ones who have been fading the snakes for the past 7 games.
Those bettors need to continue fading the snakes until the streak ends. Do you recall I believe it was last year when the mariners lost something like 16 games in a row...you never really know when a streak will end, whether it be a winning or losing streak.
Man...like I originally posted earlier today, sometimes oddsmakers SCREAM which side they feel will cover. HOW THE F DO THEY KNOW THAT KERSHAW WILL GET LIT UP?!
Arizona will cash...no doubt in my mind now.
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Man...like I originally posted earlier today, sometimes oddsmakers SCREAM which side they feel will cover. HOW THE F DO THEY KNOW THAT KERSHAW WILL GET LIT UP?!
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