Brewers/Tigers Under 8.5 -112
The Brewers are all kinds of banged up on offense. No Yelich, Vaughn or Chourio. Facing Montero who, aside from his last start, was really sharp in his first two outtings. He doesn't walk batter, and has swing and miss stuff. The Brewers seem to be a little cautious with Harrison, never topping 90 pitches in a start, and only 4.1 IP on 76 pitches last time out, but, he's been very good when he's on the hill. But, they had an off day yesterday so their bullpen is fresh and full, so if they do pull Harrison early, they have arms to get good match ups when needed. Wind also blowing in from right, and a chance of rain midway through.
Cardinals/Marlins Under 8.5 -120
Scary proposition taking the under in a Cards game, but I think there is a little value here. Dustin May got rocked for 13 ER in like 12 IP in his first two starts. In his next two, he gave up 2 ER in 12 IP. Local media has been talking about how the Cards found that he was tipping pitches. Which makes sense, cause he had a great spring, and then had those two abrupt starts, and since gotten things back on track. So now that it's been addressed, he's a new guy. Paddack got beat around his first start, but bounced back nicely. The Cardinals have struck out double digit times in the last three games, and the offense seems to be really lacking any sort of punch right now, especially once you get to the 5 hole in the line up.
Nationals/Braves Over 8.5
The Braves pitching staff has been lights out for the most part, but their offense is even better. We all know the math equation of Nats Bats+Nats Pen= Runs, so no real reason to stop fading that now. They have played 23 games, and only 7 have stayed under. Braves are top 5 vs LHP, and although Griffin has looked pretty good, he did get touched up a bit in his last start.
Chicago Cubs -1.5 +168
The Phillies still can't hit anyone that throws from the left side, and they get Imanaga tonight. Luzardo has been terrible this year, and the baby bears ARE beating up guys that throw from the left side. The wind is blowing out to center too, so could be a high scoring affair, and I trust the bats of the Cubs more than the Phillies in general right now.
Pittsburgh Pirates -102
Mlodinski has been great. The whole starting staff of the Pirates has been pretty impressive, but it's their offensive output that has me surprised. 4th best OPS in all of baseball at the moment, and that's with three regulars hitting near the Mendoza line or below it. This is small price to pay to fade Kumar Rocker, who is prone to giving up the longball.
Los Angeles Angels -1.5 +164
That's an alt line on FanDuel. The Jays offense is very streaky, and right now, they aren't scoring runs. 4 total in their last three games. Outside of Vlad, it's going to be tough for them to find any consistency I think. The Angels on the other hand, are banging against everyone. 9th in OPS vs lefties, 8th in overall OPS. Kochanowicz gave up 3 early runs in his last start, but then shut the door on the Yanks in their building, and has only given up 4 ER in his last 19.1 IP.
Sacramento Athletics +140
The Ms can't hit. At all. Raleigh either was a fluke, or is REALLY pressing. He has 3 HR and is batting .161. Good news for him is, everyone else on his team isn't hitting either. The A's can score, and while they don't have any advantage on the mound tonight, with how the Ms are hitting, I don't care.
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